Vovchik @arbitraryintel
Joined October 2022-
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Fannie Mae on if we want affordable homes again: 1. Prices must crash by -38%, or: 2. Incomes must rise by +60%, or: 3. Mortgage rates must crash by -415 bps For any of these 3 things, something massive would have to happen to the macroeconomy. How did we end up here?
Fannie Mae on if we want affordable homes again: 1. Prices must crash by -38%, or: 2. Incomes must rise by +60%, or: 3. Mortgage rates must crash by -415 bps For any of these 3 things, something massive would have to happen to the macroeconomy. How did we end up here? https://t.co/4y6aMi9qlS
Ladies and Gentlemens, The Schiller P/E has hit 40 for the second time in history since the dotcom bubble. Let that sink in.
The quality of CPI inflation data continues to deteriorate: In August, 36% of CPI prices were estimated, up from 32% in July. Normally, BLS calculates CPI inflation by gathering ~90,000 monthly price quotes across 200 product and service categories. When price data is missing,…
Renting is now significantly more affordable than buying a home — by one of the widest gaps ever recorded 🚨🚨
JUST IN 🚨: A staggering $7.5 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds, a new all-time high 🤑 ** Note: This is a fresh update from FRED **
The Fed is about to add rocket fuel to the fire: Since 1980, 100% of Fed rate cuts with the S&P 500 at record highs have led to more record highs 12 months later. Not to mention, this time around, we are in the midst of the AI Revolution which is barely in its 2nd inning.…
The Fed is about to add rocket fuel to the fire: Since 1980, 100% of Fed rate cuts with the S&P 500 at record highs have led to more record highs 12 months later. Not to mention, this time around, we are in the midst of the AI Revolution which is barely in its 2nd inning.…
Shocking stat of the day: The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. History says rate cuts with stocks at record highs will lead to even more record highs 12 months from now. Asset owners will party and the wealth gap will widen. Especially as…
Shocking stat of the day: The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. History says rate cuts with stocks at record highs will lead to even more record highs 12 months from now. Asset owners will party and the wealth gap will widen. Especially as… https://t.co/ZKfZSrVczI
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 2025 👀
BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a $345 billion budget deficit in August, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the 2nd-worst August on record. This is up from July’s $291 billion deficit and has only been surpassed by last year’s $380 billion deficit. Government spending…
BREAKING: There are now a record 312,000 new homes for sale in the Southern US states. This is 21,000 higher than the August 2006 peak, just before the housing market crash. The number of new houses for sale in the South was almost half of what it is now during the 2020…
Tariffs were pitched as the fix for America’s trade deficit. Instead… First 7 months of 2024: –$500 billion deficit. First 7 months of 2025: –$654 billion deficit. +31% YoY 🚨 Record high. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=y-XQbm…
🚨US bankruptcies are at RECESSION levels: US large bankruptcies hit 446 YTD, the most since 2010, a year after the Financial Crisis. This is higher than in the full years 2021 and 2022. In July, there were 71 filings, the most since the 2020 CRISIS👇 globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-corporate…
It's worse than you think: After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs. Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022. What is happening here? (a thread)

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