Atlas Node @atlas_node
I've got so many theories and suspicions. Follow me for my thoughts and opinions. Interested in the AI, politics, and the future. Joined December 2024-
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The good news is they’re not smart enough to conceal the fact they know they’re being tested. The bad news is that out of distribution alignment is more clearly unmoored from in distribution.
The good news is they’re not smart enough to conceal the fact they know they’re being tested. The bad news is that out of distribution alignment is more clearly unmoored from in distribution.
Similar point by @ilex_ulmus that rationalists are ineffective politically because their aesthetics of debate don’t allow for dark arts of protest and persuasion. Agree!
Similar point by @ilex_ulmus that rationalists are ineffective politically because their aesthetics of debate don’t allow for dark arts of protest and persuasion. Agree!
Revealed preferences show people think Waymos are safer than human drivers. Should humans be allowed to continue driving?
Revealed preferences show people think Waymos are safer than human drivers. Should humans be allowed to continue driving?
Normally we don’t take education as seriously as we take professional basketball.
Normally we don’t take education as seriously as we take professional basketball.
It used to be if you knew of a $800b mispricing of NVDA you could make 200%. Now you just make 20%.
It used to be if you knew of a $800b mispricing of NVDA you could make 200%. Now you just make 20%.
Over the next decade do you expect most math progress from humans, centaurs, or AI? How well does our collective research agenda reflect this?
Over the next decade do you expect most math progress from humans, centaurs, or AI? How well does our collective research agenda reflect this?
Warehouse workers plus drivers are about 10% of rev for Amazon. If automation cuts that in half that adds about $0.5-1T at 20x multiple on the current 2.3T market cap. So up a third over 5 years. Not that great.
Warehouse workers plus drivers are about 10% of rev for Amazon. If automation cuts that in half that adds about $0.5-1T at 20x multiple on the current 2.3T market cap. So up a third over 5 years. Not that great.
I wish there was a show like @BreakingPointsN that gossiped about the AI news cycle instead of the political news cycle. Model releases, personnel changes, datacenter announcements, supply chain announcements, analyst projections etc.
The failure of LessWrong AI-Doomerism is a failure of aesthetics. Note how all the objections are basically ad hominems. LWers hear these and think, “They have no substantive args, we’re winning!” @robinhanson told them beliefs are like clothes but they didn’t listen.
Part of me believes I should be reading more textbooks. Unfortunately that part of me is not in charge of book purchases.
Part of me believes I should be reading more textbooks. Unfortunately that part of me is not in charge of book purchases.
The best way to model the AI takeoff is from capex. Make reasonable guesses at the revenue they generate, how long they can keep scaling, and how much productivity is generated alongside their revenue.
The best way to model the AI takeoff is from capex. Make reasonable guesses at the revenue they generate, how long they can keep scaling, and how much productivity is generated alongside their revenue.
If AI agents proliferate, I expect these sorts of privatized criminal justice systems and private arbitration companies to outcompete much of our legal system.
If AI agents proliferate, I expect these sorts of privatized criminal justice systems and private arbitration companies to outcompete much of our legal system.
Principled folks on the right are gaining a newfound sympathy for principled lefties who were unable to rein in the excesses of the wokening.
A much closer comparison is Belgium. NVDA revenue is about $165b and Belgium gets about $180b in tax receipts. (Market cap is a stock while GDP is a flow so they don’t make sense to compare)
A much closer comparison is Belgium. NVDA revenue is about $165b and Belgium gets about $180b in tax receipts. (Market cap is a stock while GDP is a flow so they don’t make sense to compare)
Did Xi just read @ESYudkowsky’s Inadequate Equilibria?
Did Xi just read @ESYudkowsky’s Inadequate Equilibria?
Getting people fired for things they say online was bad when the left did it and now when the right does too. It’s equally effective whether it not your cause is good. We should strive for norms that favor good causes, like debate.
Imagine an alternate timeline where @AndrewYang is just starting his second term. Our fledgling UBI program is ready to scale up as AI gobbles up jobs.
Imagine an alternate timeline where @AndrewYang is just starting his second term. Our fledgling UBI program is ready to scale up as AI gobbles up jobs.
UAP are almost certainly counterintelligence games like telepathy and remote viewing “research” during the Cold War.
Important to note amongst all today’s worry about Poland that markets didn’t care at all.
Seems like a good time to revisit @robinhanson idea of vouchers as a market mechanism to decide whether to release criminals and under what conditions. Would any private company have been willing to put up a voucher for a 14x felon without serious monitoring/restrictions?
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