Computer Cowboy @benbbaldwin
@ben_bot_baldwin | @nflfastR | @Open_Source_FB Danny's economist friend | bbaldwin206 at gmail dotcom theathletic.com/author/ben-bal… Joined February 2015-
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Computer Cowboy retweeted
Nor is it exclusive to football.
Computer Cowboy retweeted
Process-wise, quick reaction: + Jaguars + Jets + Bears (not hard, but shout out) + Bills (the emotional reactions that they gave a WR to the Chiefs are BS) - Vikings - Raiders - Bucs - Titans - Commanders - Lions - Falcons everyone else is fine
So the NFL as a whole was **way** higher on Penix than outside draft analysts. The Raiders tried to address their hole at QB and instead ended up with their 2nd highly-drafted TE in 2 years. What a mess
So the NFL as a whole was **way** higher on Penix than outside draft analysts. The Raiders tried to address their hole at QB and instead ended up with their 2nd highly-drafted TE in 2 years. What a mess
Nice. Excited to watch him!
Raiders are going to establish the tight end
The Falcons punted on QB for 2 straight seasons and now are doing the absolute complete opposite
I was promised trades. Where are the trades
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180K Followers 1K Following Bills Beat and Sideline Reporter; Host of The Extra Point Show 10A-12P on @WGR550; Former HS football and track coach; Father of Max; drummer; SYRACUSE ORANGE🍊Since this all got started by a discussion of “overconfidence” I think it’s worth separating critiques into substantive (“I don’t like that player”) which should be relatively low confidence takes & structural (“that’s a poor use of capital/unwinnable bet”) which can be stronger
It’s probably an easier pill to swallow if you point out that everything in this article isn’t an “NFL GM” thing but a “complex decision making with highly imperfect information” thing.
@KevinCole___ @benbbaldwin It's almost as if forecasting college player performance into the NFL is incredibly hard... but it's not fun for draft coverage to talk about that (I'm confused more by what the Vikings did yesterday than the Falcons)
@benbbaldwin @alec_lewis Even using Polian's logic...I'd rather have 2 chances at a difference maker than 1.
@benbbaldwin Which is one of the cardinal sins of drafting!
@benbbaldwin @alec_lewis It's why betting is a good educator for business, etc, imo. Do things fundamentally correct and you make the randomness of it all work for you.
@benbbaldwin And the point falls apart when the confidence comes from testing opinions. Yes, we're confident in opinions we test with historical evidence and think others shouldn't be confident in opinions that go against the evidence
@benbbaldwin @alec_lewis La decisión sería mejor, si el GM valorara el riesgo y contemplara el escenario negativo? Es decir, que decidiera apostar más fuerte para obtener una mejor ganancia
@benbbaldwin Its just odd. Even drilling down to just Edge here were guys taken around where the Vikings picked. Basically its saying the Vikings have the magic formula that 16 other teams did not have in 24 and nobody in the past really had to nail a pick
It’s probably an easier pill to swallow if you point out that everything in this article isn’t an “NFL GM” thing but a “complex decision making with highly imperfect information” thing.
Anyway I highly recommend @alec_lewis' piece on this theathletic.com/5416007/2024/0…
Nor is it exclusive to football.
The beliefs about the value of draft picks & GM overconfidence comes from evidence formed across decades by lots of different people using lots of different methodologies & reaching the same conclusions. And these beliefs are not exclusive to the public analytics community, fwiw
@benbbaldwin If we think teams are vastly under-spending at QB, doing so in an inefficient manner isn't a big problem. Look at the QB free agents this offseason outside of Kirk. Gardner Minshew was the next biggest signing
@benbbaldwin @KevinCole___ Kirk’s age and now his injury are huge factors falcons see how quickly it went out on Russ and Matt Ryan this was a smart pick
@benbbaldwin @jorgetinajeroe @GameManagersP @elbuenluigi Este fue glorioso
@benbbaldwin @jorgetinajeroe @GameManagersP Clearly I was not the only one surprised, but might've been the most demonstrative one 😂
@benbbaldwin @GameManagersP @elbuenluigi 😂😂😂 ¡Thank you for watching us!
Reacciones de la primera ronda. 😎
Ben likes Dallas’ approach last night.
Them too. Dallas is a very underrated at this.
Fwiw I think Chicago, New York (A), Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville made some really sound moves. Not inclusive, just off the top of my head.
@benbbaldwin @PFF_Moo If you come up with any non-obvious solutions, I'd be happy to try to work them into the app!!
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