Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg
Sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations. washingtonpost.com/people/neil-gr… [email protected] Joined May 2008-
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MVBee of the night
This is the second-best sports delay since Fan Man right?
This is the second-best sports delay since Fan Man right?
Mets best reasons for optimism w/April in the books: 1)Bullpen deep and dominant so far. Ranks 1st in majors in K's (141) and batting average against (.188). 2)Severino bounce-back looks legit. 3)Emergence of Mendoza as mgr w/NY presence and a good feel for the game and the job.
NOPE
Breaking: The Mets say they set a Citi Field record with 44,269 hot dogs sold tonight on Dollar Dog night.
You wouldn’t last an hour in the asylum where they raised me
Juan Soto is now hitting .328/.441/.586, a 195 wRC+, and he's still only 25 years old. I'm not even sure there's a ceiling to the contract he'll get this winter.
@ngreenberg Definitely on the unlikely side!
I think yes for both props has a lot of value with the Belmont Stakes run at 10f this year. Muth is a factor of course.
I think yes for both props has a lot of value with the Belmont Stakes run at 10f this year. Muth is a factor of course.
I think Fierceness (17) will be closer than that. It’s a double-edged sword, risk someone else wiring the field or pressuring the pace too much and weakening later.
I think Fierceness (17) will be closer than that. It’s a double-edged sword, risk someone else wiring the field or pressuring the pace too much and weakening later.
Obviously Fierceness no longer in post 17 is a talking point, but #11 Forever Young a big winner here, as he now is in post 10, which means he is the last to load instead of the first.
Obviously Fierceness no longer in post 17 is a talking point, but #11 Forever Young a big winner here, as he now is in post 10, which means he is the last to load instead of the first.
I find it interesting that Starr feels Fierceness run style is hampered by Post No. 16 (was No. 17) but Sierra Leone out of No. 2 is not. bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/a…
Thor 5 should be the Beta Ray Bill storyline. Gets Chris Hemsworth one last film to go out on a high note and pass Mjolnir to someone else.
Barrel rate for hitters is quite predictive. Historically, it already only regresses halfway to league average after just 44 balls hit into play. For hard hit %, that's 37 balls hit into play.
Barrel rate for hitters is quite predictive. Historically, it already only regresses halfway to league average after just 44 balls hit into play. For hard hit %, that's 37 balls hit into play.
Catching Freedom gaining in the stretch during a graded stakes prep race with a slow pace and average final speed figure is notable. Pedigree is there, too, with Constitution and Tapit. Does the No. 3 post hurt his efforts to close into what I expect to be a hot pace? Dunno.
Alex Ovechkin said himself today that Tom Wilson is likely the next captain.
Kentucky Derby on Star Wars Day?!?! May The Horse Be With You!
Does D&B think they just invented the friendly wager?
Does D&B think they just invented the friendly wager?
We absolutely don’t need this but if anyone wants to lose money challenging me to a game of Galaga so be it.
We absolutely don’t need this but if anyone wants to lose money challenging me to a game of Galaga so be it.
Thunder Gulch
Grant Paulsen @granthpaulsen
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101K Followers 1K Following hate when folks say nobody is from DC | @nbc4sports | weekdays 10-2 @1067theFan | Beltway Football for @monsportsnet
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CapitalsPR @CapitalsPR
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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics
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101K Followers 1K Following hate when folks say nobody is from DC | @nbc4sports | weekdays 10-2 @1067theFan | Beltway Football for @monsportsnet
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japersrink.bsky.socia.. @JapersRink
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72K Followers 982 Following Digital sports editor (and sometimes writer) person for https://t.co/x4VA3q564V. Not edgy. Send correspondence to [email protected].
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60K Followers 8K Following Washington NFL reporter for @washingtonpost. Previously w/ The Athletic, Denver Post, New York Times & Sports Illustrated. [email protected]
John-Paul Flaim @GlassJoeJP
31K Followers 592 Following Host of The Sports Junkies. Listen live 6-10 am on @1067TheFan. Simulcast on @MonSportsNet. Author of “Still Barking” & “Chasing Rocky,” available on Amazon.
Becca @BeccaH_JR
4K Followers 1K Following Bringer of Caps/hockey ~*feelings*~ for Japers' Rink. Prone to occasional rants. She/her. Contribute to our GoFundMe! https://t.co/WF6jQRKGkg
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35K Followers 1K Following Director of Operations @CircaSports #BetJeff
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37K Followers 3K Following Cover the Caps for https://t.co/2zNjbvO7gb. Love hockey, baseball, music, writing, reading. Dylan. Kerouac. Replacements. Tom Waits. YLT. DBT. Film noir, more.
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91K Followers 2K Following Ukraine bureau chief for The Washington Post. Recovering sportswriter. Instagram: @ikhurshudyan. Напишите мне: [email protected]
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51K Followers 746 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder @UnabatedSports and @MasseyPeabody analytics. Co-host @BetTheProcess. Rufus is a dog's name.
Computer Cowboy @benbbaldwin
106K Followers 724 Following @ben_bot_baldwin | @nflfastR | @Open_Source_FB Danny's economist friend | bbaldwin206 at gmail dotcom
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10K Followers 2K Following Gambling/content consultant, formerly VP for Catena Media over sites like @lspreport. GWU alum, Philly sports, Oregonian. https://t.co/paE1ka22Jh
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99K Followers 5K Following The Athletic. Also: HOF selector, PFWA board, AP Awards Voter, QB Tiers, Football GM Podcast. 25+ seasons covering NFL. Alum: ESPN, TNT, S-R.
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johnwicc 🌪️ @edwxrdz
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189 Followers 748 Following 5’7 130 rhp utility 6.6 60 yard dash #sherwoodhighschool2026 dig in baseball email:[email protected]
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3K Followers 971 Following By The Book Host on @MonSportsNet. College gymnast has-been. #DMV born and raised.
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2K Followers 2K Following @McGillU ’19. College hoops, baseball, sports musings @ActionNetworkHQ @BetterCollectiv. Once was a D-I athlete (in Canada). Day game enthusiast. Go Fish.
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Cover 2 FiguRes @cover2figuRes
2K Followers 230 Following Visualising 🏈 data | 𝗖𝗙𝗕 (mostly) | 𝗡𝗙𝗟 | Currently completing a PhD in sports science | #RStats
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4K Followers 515 Following The leader in simulating the Universe & controlling scopes on Windows & macOS. Also featuring world class astronomy curriculum solutions for K-12 & Higher Ed.
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Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats
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📊How I Perform Opponent Adjustments ▫️Treat each play as a unique matchup ▫️Use Ridge Regression to solve play's resulting EPA given the Offense, Defense, & league-wide homefield advantage ▫️FBS vs FBS games only ▫️Method & code below: blog.collegefootballdata.com/opponent-adjus…
@RASPicks Looks like spreadsheet didn't copy correctly. Here is the original: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
@PlusEVAnalytics @UnabatedSports Simpler approach: You "win" middle at half push rate of 4 (3%/2 =1.5) + push rate of 5 (about 2%)= 3.5%. Bet both sides at -109, your EV is about 0.035 * 2 - (0.09) * 0.965, or -1.5 to -2%. Better push rates might improve this, but doesn't look great with street math approach.
“There’s no salary cap on hockey ops” Talked to two dozen people in the game for a look at how NHL teams are spending (and not spending) to find a competitive advantage. es.pn/3fL7J5F
If you click solve, the work will be done and the vig will be removed from each outcome proportionately. As can be seen, the prices look much closer to what is likely seen by the bookmaker and in most cases will be a much clearer reflection of what they did.
Our package @nflfastR received several, partly major updates in terms of functionality as well as performance. The player stats function, heavy performance improvements and a lot of bug fixes. Check out the changelog nflfastr.com/news/index.html 2/9
@ngreenberg @ScottBarrettDFB With very, very boring math... Using the individual pos SDs listed in article, plug into this: sqrt(QB sd^2 + RB sd^2 + RB sd^2 + WR sd^2 + WR sd^2 + TE^2 + DST sd^2 + K sd^2)
We are almost at the halfway point of the season. Here are the team stats that are most/least stable from the first 41 games to the last. threesandlayups.com/2018/01/15/whi…
@bbstats And then, for @SethPartnow - here are the coefficients for how much to regress a player's past performance to the mean after they change teams. e.g., your pace should be regressed 97.8% to the mean upon changing teams, your plus/minus 84.6% of the way to the mean, etc...
Zookeepers with Anxiety™️ zzz ＜⌒／ヽ-､_＿_ ／＜_/＿＿＿＿／ ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ ∧_∧ i left a door ( ･ω･) unlocked ＿| ⊃／(＿＿_ ／ └-(＿＿＿_／ ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
Best football analytics article I've seen the last few years. @SBN_BillC on the randomness of big plays. footballstudyhall.com/2017/8/22/1607…
Introducing NCAA Men's Basketball Play by Play data for all 351 teams + script for scraping PBP/Rosters from ESPN github.com/lbenz730/NCAA_…
Blog post: Hall of Fame Selectors: Since Ben generously posted the source code for his Hall of Fame selector, ... tinyurl.com/mrqlgpt
┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| _ ┻┳| •.•) pssst...the Premier League ┳┻|⊂ﾉ starts tomorrow! ┻┳|
Btw, here's the R code that will generate the probability of a series win given a certain game state: pastebin.com/RiVD9Ytn
#MLB How many games do teams need to play to reasonably predict making the playoffs? Fewer than you think. sbn.to/1loffxK
FanGraphs: Tool: Basically Every Pitching Stat Correlation bit.ly/1bBkdy5
RotoGraphs: Analyzing Jacoby Ellsbury's Hot Streak bit.ly/12lLG3S
Happy birthday to @ngreenberg, the most amazing stat nerd (I mean dork--I mean geek!) I've ever met! <3
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