CNAS @CNASdc
The Center for a New American Security develops strong, pragmatic, and principled national security and defense policies. Join us: https://t.co/WzyUv7xOwv. cnas.org Washington, D.C. Joined May 2009-
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The recent incident at RAF Fairford has drawn attention to the security of bases used by U.S. forces. Our report, Countering the Swarm, examines what it takes to protect U.S. military infrastructure abroad. Read the full report here: cnas.org/publications/r…
“The AGI Moment” by @paul_scharre examines how artificial general intelligence could reshape U.S. national security strategy, and how to pace, cooperate, and compete as it emerges: cnas.org/publications/r…
In Behind the Front Line @CarltonHaelig and @natsec_wallin explore how integrating AI agents into military supply, maintenance and planning could improve near-term U.S. military operations: cnas.org/publications/r…
In June, Jack Shanahan examined the role of AI in warfare. Since then, stakes have only gotten higher. Two recent reports pick up where our conversation left off and add some recommendations for Congress and DoW. Check them out below 👇
“AI has the potential to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of every single military mission, from undersea to outpace, cyber space, everything else in between.” Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan (Ret.) examines the role of AI in warfare.
@jpanikoff and @MTSavill joined @AKendallTaylor and @jteurope on Brussel Sprouts this past week to discuss if and how the Iran war would spread to the European territory and how prepared NATO is for a response. Listen wherever you get your podcasts: cnas.org/publications/p…
A report by @danielremler and @BenHayum breaks down how to detect adversarial distillation and calls for closer coordination among AI providers and U.S. agencies and sanctions for those involved. cnas.org/publications/r…
“Anthropic had long been able to gather threat-intelligence signals that could detect and attribute distillation attacks,” @BenHayum told @SCMPNews on claims Chinese AI firms secretly used Claude to close the AI gap. scmp.com/tech/tech-war/…
Want curated analysis on the biggest challenges in U.S. foreign policy, from U.S.-China competition to sanctions policy and beyond? Subscribe to CNAS Sharper – our expert-driven collections drawing on reports, interviews and commentary from across the Center.
The Iran war is now widening, and it’s likely to intensify before it cools down: 1. The Houthis once again attacked Riyadh’s airport, expanding their Saudi offensive. The U.S. is likely to join the fight. 2. Trump would obviously prefer to let Saudis handle the Houthis, with some American intel and refueling help. Last year’s U.S. campaign against the group didn’t subdue them. But given the scale of attacks, it’s unlikely Washington will sit this one out indefinitely. 3. If Washington does attack Yemen directly, it’ll do so while building up force for a major new attack on Iran in the latest attempt to break the stalemate there. 4. Trump says he won’t attack before the midterm elections, and that Tehran will strike a deal immediately after them. Don’t take either assurance to the bank. 5. Iran’s position is weakening. It faces crushing economic pressure under the oil blockade and various sanctions. Tehran can no longer fully control the Strait of Hormuz. 6. It can, however, threaten shipping in the Strait, driving up risk and oil prices. High prices are driving unwise moves, like POTUS striking a deal to buy Russian diesel - just days after signing a bill to sanction the purchasers of Russian oil. 7. Remember that Russia and Iran are working together here. And the Houthis have been well-supplied by Tehran. None of the three will be helpful to the United States, and we should not imagine otherwise. 8. So we’ll see continued oscillation between hot and cold war with Iran, against the backdrop of dueling economic pressure strategies: the U.S. pressuring Iran and Tehran pressuring the world. 9. The President wants a deal. Iran will make one, just not the kind the U.S. wants. And for Washington, the desiderata has actually expanded. It needs agreement on the Strait, the nuclear program, and the Houthis. 10. In the meantime we’ll see parallel fights - with Houthis in the Bab, Yemen, and Saudi; Iran in the Strait and attendant region. The U.S. needs to stay engaged militarily without ready access to its archipelago of ME bases. 11. All this nets out to long term pressure strategies rather than efforts that can achieve quick capitulation or agreement. The current U.S. approach could work. If it does, however, it might take months - or even years.
Full episode here, or listen wherever you get your podcasts: cnas.org/brussels-sprou…
On Brussels Sprouts, @BalazsJarabik analyzed Kyiv's strategy and its shift from retaking territory to fighting for a draw.
The growing threat from Iranian drones has revealed critical U.S. vulnerabilities. @StaciePettyjohn tells @politico that “there are some hard questions that need to be answered: Where do you need to be? Why? With what types of forces? How often?” politico.com/news/2026/10/0…
Listen to the full analysis here, or wherever you get your podcasts: cnas.org/brussels-sprou…
On Brussel Sprouts, @katerynashn discussed why changing presidents mid-war isn't broadly supported in Ukraine
"AI companies such as OpenAI have sought to limit liability for themselves and transfer it to deployers or users." Watch @michellesnie discuss AI risks and liability on @BBCNews.
Expand annual production capabilties for munitions and their subcomponents. The defense industrial base must be capable of fulfilling the orders made possible by the budget's unprecedented funding request.
The FY27 defense budget's munitions acceleration initiative has the potential to close critical gaps in procurement—but it's not enough on its own. @CarltonHaelig's new report outlines the conditions that will have to be met to succeed 🧵⬇️
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