once again, my favorite Argentina polling sequence was:
- missing Milei's support in the primary
- overestimating Milei's support in the first round
- underestimating Milei's support in the second round
they got the direction of the swing wrong all 3 times lmao
once again, my favorite Argentina polling sequence was:
- missing Milei's support in the primary
- overestimating Milei's support in the first round
- underestimating Milei's support in the second round
they got the direction of the swing wrong all 3 times lmao
De nuevo gran parte de las encuestadoras no supieron medir bien la ventaja, en este caso del peronismo
Algunas, como AtlasIntel, con altísimas desviaciones (hace días desde esta encuestadora apuntaban a una victoria de LLA por 10p).
electomania.es#ElecttionesPBA
If I had a nickel for every time a beautiful northern country that produces a huge amount of oil and gas had its incumbent center-left party make a huge comeback starting in 2025, etc
If I had a nickel for every time a beautiful northern country that produces a huge amount of oil and gas had its incumbent center-left party make a huge comeback starting in 2025, etc
Obviously this poll is silly, but it is funny to watch everyone do go “oh, Gavin can’t win, just look at his favorables” after Trump won with underwater favorables in exits. Also both ‘24 candidates saw a 20-pt favorability gains from 2023 to Election Day
Obviously this poll is silly, but it is funny to watch everyone do go “oh, Gavin can’t win, just look at his favorables” after Trump won with underwater favorables in exits. Also both ‘24 candidates saw a 20-pt favorability gains from 2023 to Election Day
Kind of crazy how much of a correlation there is between presidential turnout in 2024, and bachelors degree rate. Areas with high educations tend to also have high turnout rates, while areas with low turnout rates tend to not be super educated... Coincidence?
Sears' campaign being left for dead is going to wreak havoc on the downballot races, right? Youngkin dragged the House of Delegates over the line in 2021, but it's basically Safe D now
Sears' campaign being left for dead is going to wreak havoc on the downballot races, right? Youngkin dragged the House of Delegates over the line in 2021, but it's basically Safe D now
the Norwegian election is in 4 days and everyone who turns 18 in 2025 can vote in it (that includes present 17-year-olds), so I'll just wait for that before I make any hot takes
apparently Saxony-Anhalt has lost 25% of its population since 1990
But they also have an ATP 500 tournament on grass, so it's impossible to say whether that's bad or not
apparently Saxony-Anhalt has lost 25% of its population since 1990
But they also have an ATP 500 tournament on grass, so it's impossible to say whether that's bad or not
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