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Headline from yesterday... 👇🏼 *SOUTH KOREA OCT. 1-10 EXPORTS RISE 102% Y/Y Highest reading in years!
Our latest Thoughts on the Market 👇🏼 substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
In today’s note, we discuss how the market has taken a hit — just not in price. And why that de-rating may leave enough room to absorb further macro pressure without derailing our year-end target. Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/all-this-and…
The plurality of stocks trade with a 10-15x P/E @DualityResearch
The 'average' tech stock is +62% YTD @DualityResearch
6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have de-rated by 10% or more this year so far @DualityResearch
@DavidZervosDC @SecScottBessent @YouTube Yes, 10-year inflation expectations have been stuck in a tight range for years… 👇🏼 x.com/dualityresearc…
For nearly 4 years now, US 10-year inflation expectations have been stuck in a remarkably tight ~40bp range. In other words, the vast majority of the move in 10-year Treasury yields has come from real yields — not inflation expectations.
🚨 Just ran the numbers. This one is pretty wild. The only other time the S&P 500 made a new all-time high while 52-week breadth flipped positive — after 10+ consecutive trading days of new lows outnumbering new highs — was… December 23, 1999. That’s it. Pretty remarkable statistically. Probably completely useless predictively.
Today was the first day since September 14 that S&P 500 stocks made more new 52-week highs than lows. At the same time, 4-week highs exceeded 4-week lows for the first time since August 28. 👉🏼 Breadth has finally started pushing back.
Today was the first day since September 14 that S&P 500 stocks made more new 52-week highs than lows. At the same time, 4-week highs exceeded 4-week lows for the first time since August 28. 👉🏼 Breadth has finally started pushing back.
Through Friday's close, 0% (as in none) of Utilities were outperforming the S&P 500 YTD. via @DualityResearch
@dailychartbook As always thanks for sharing! 🙏🏼 Here's the version of the chart where we make the two types of divergences easier to see 👇🏼
Tech vs. ex-Tech: "It's not just that the two sides are moving apart - they're moving apart more aggressively than at any point since this bull market began." @DualityResearch
In today’s note, we look at a divergence we haven’t seen in years: 👉🏼 Tech is rising while the S&P 500 ex-Tech is outright declining. We break down why that distinction matters — and what it could mean for the market from here. Read more here: dualityresearch.substack.com/p/the-warning-…
Our latest Thoughts on the Market 👇🏼 substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
Slightly better picture for the broader market...
If breadth is bad, don’t own breadth! (as of Friday's close) dualityresearch.substack.com/p/week-39-f45
Forward P/E below both its 5- and 10-year averages👇🏼
The S&P 500 no longer requires anything other than stable multiples to reach 8,000 by year-end. At ~19x forward earnings — already below both its 5- and 10-year averages — there’s no need for a re-rating, multiple expansion, or any valuation tailwind. 👉🏼 Just keep multiples where they are and let earnings come in roughly in line. Read more here: dualityresearch.substack.com/p/week-40-1b4
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