Rob Anderson @_rob_anderson
U.S. Sector Strategist at Ned Davis Research St Louis, MO Joined December 2020-
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Health Care pessimism could be nearing an extreme. The sector's weight in the S&P 500 has been roughly cut in half since the end of 2022 and now makes up just 8.8% of the index, its lowest weight since 1994.
Another development that warrants monitoring. Cyclical sectors have lost momentum in recent weeks. Technology is currently the only sector trading above its relative 50-day average. Narrow cyclical leadership has often been bearish for stocks.
Another development that warrants monitoring. Cyclical sectors have lost momentum in recent weeks. Technology is currently the only sector trading above its relative 50-day average. Narrow cyclical leadership has often been bearish for stocks. https://t.co/rTYrGeB65W
Bitcoin is entering its most difficult stretch of the year from a seasonal perspective. It has risen only a third of the time in both August and September with negative average and median returns.
Relatively stronger breadth from cyclicals over defensives is the type of participation expected during bull markets. Recently, defensive breadth has improved vs cyclical even as the S&P 500 has made new highs. The condition warrants monitoring as divergences can precede selloffs
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Both Health Care and Technology weights in the S&P 500 are currently the most extreme since March 2000.
The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized in recent weeks after plummeting during the first half of the year. From a PPP perspective, the dollar is no longer overvalued. However, prior secular tops saw the dollar overshoot, dropping to more than 20% undervalued in both 1987 and 2004.
Amid the China tech rally, here is some longer-term perspective. Over the last 5 years, U.S. big tech has roughly doubled, while China big tech has been cut in half. The combined market caps of $BIDU, $BABA and $TCEHY is 20% of their American counterparts $GOOGL, $AMZN and $META.
The NDR Cycle Composite shows we are entering a less bullish phase of the year from a seasonality perspective. Despite the volatility, 2025 has so far tracked the trend closely.
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Update - No signs of a bottom for Health Care. The sector has now trailed the S&P 500 by almost 60% over the trailing three years, the worst stretch ever for the sector.
Update - No signs of a bottom for Health Care. The sector has now trailed the S&P 500 by almost 60% over the trailing three years, the worst stretch ever for the sector. https://t.co/MphVJg3MWJ
$AAPL now trades near the bottom of its five-year trading range, a level only breached during the reopening trade in 2021. A bounce would go a long way in keeping Tech a leading sector in the second half.

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