Hi Mount Research @HiMountResearch
Tune out the noise. Concentrate on the significant. himountresearch.com Milwaukee, Wisconsin Joined September 2020-
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Seeing divergences in trend strength by market cap: Over the past 2 months, % of large-caps with 50-d > 200-day has expanded to 76%, the highest level since Sep 2021, while the reading for small-caps has rolled over (falling from 62% to 55%).
It was by the narrowest of margins (461 vs 459) but new highs exceeded new lows for the 12th week in a row.
Last two times the II bull-bear spread climbed as high as it is now the peak in price was 9 or more months in the future. Elevated optimism in bull markets is a feature not a bug.
"It’s been over a decade since the S&P 500 last recorded back-to-back quarterly gains of 10%+. It had only happened a total of seven previous times going back to 1950. None of the previous instances has led to protracted weakness." @WillieDelwiche @HiMountResearch
AAII bulls have exceeded bears for 19 weeks in a row, one of the longest streaks of sustained optimism in recent years. himountresearch.com/observation/op…
Hard to make the dis-inflation argument stick when shorter-term inflation is running hotter than longer-term inflation. And that is currently the case across multiple time frames and multiple indexes.
Pour one out for the bears and their breadth divergences: Weekly new highs (on both an absolute basis and versus new lows) have exceeded their December peak and are at their highest levels since 2021.
S&P equal-weight index, Broker/Dealer index and German DAX are at new highs. Making bearish arguments from a trend or breadth perspective is a case of straining gnats and swallowing camels.
Was dis-inflation transitory? 3-mo change in the median CPI bottomed in August (higher than any previous inflation peak of the past 30 years) and in January surged above the 12-mo change for the first time in nearly a year.
There's a big focus on whether new highs and new lows are expanding or contracting. For me, the bottom panel here tells the more important story. It is not the magnitude of new highs and lows that matters, but the persistence of new highs exceeding new lows (and vice versa).
A new edition of “When To Sell”, the classic book by Justin Mamis, has just been released. All the pages are blank.
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21K Followers 301 Following @HiMountResearch founder | Teaching Econ/Finance at @insidewlc | Urban farmer & vintner "To recognize the significant in the factual is wisdom." D. Bonhoeffer"While markets that are quietly strong may not make for great headlines, they have been a signature of bull markets in the past. That continues to be the case in the present." @WillieDelwiche @HiMountResearch
@HiMountResearch Like a diet, consistency trumps intensity. Good stuff.
"The new highs list expanded every day [last] week and, more importantly, the trend in net new highs (new highs less new lows) has continued to rise." @WillieDelwiche @HiMountResearch
No guarantees BUT history suggests that this could be the just start of something bigger. That said, still no real sign of a turnaround in foreign vs. U.S. stocks. Watching this relationship closely. @sentimentrader
The pace of improvement in global stock market trends experienced over the past 13 weeks has only been seen a handful of times over the past quarter century.
@thomasgerlach chart from @WillieDelwiche @HiMountResearch
"All-time highs are a part of the process, but they’ve been separated by brutal bear markets that can last years, even decades." ↗️↘️↗️ - @michaelbatnick theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/12/16/thi…
Talking with Traders #podcast. This week I spoke to @WillieDelwiche of HiMount Research to get his market views heading into 2024. Take a listen. Thanks to @IGSouthAfrica for sponsorship. band.link/IGTraders
Enjoyed this conversation with @TradersCorner. Give it a listen.
Talking with Traders #podcast. This week I spoke to @WillieDelwiche of HiMount Research to get his market views heading into 2024. Take a listen. Thanks to @IGSouthAfrica for sponsorship. band.link/IGTraders
"As the market has moved from strength to weakness (14 days and counting of more new lows than new highs) over the course of August the noise level has also started to rise." @HiMountResearch
"Last week saw the percentage of global markets at new 13-week lows rising to its highest level since March." @HiMountResearch
Who would have thought that record high household equity exposure negatively impacts equity returns in the following decade 👇 Chart @HiMountResearch
After today, all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day average.
Number of sectors trading above their 200-day average has moved into bullish territory. Improving breadth helps mitigate near term concerns over excessive optimism & surging speculation. himountresearch.com/observation/sp…
Now at 6 days in a row of S&P 500 advancers > decliners. Haven't made it to 7 since 2019.
Percentage of ACWI markets hitting new 52-week highs last week was the highest since Aug 2021. @HiMountResearch
Enjoyed the chance to jump on @TDANetwork and chat with @Cline_Woods this morning.
Market risk outweighs opportunity right now, says @WillieDelwiche. “Stocks are more expensive on an absolute basis, and more excessively relative to bonds.” Delwiche on how to play this “less is more” environment with @Cline_Woods:
June had more weeks of bulls > bears than the preceding 18 months combined. But stocks have struggled in the past with bulls in the 40s and bears in the 20's. @HiMountResearch himountresearch.com/observation/te…
Really interesting chartbook from @WillieDelwiche with thoughtful insights on LT market trends and current conditions.
The secular environment has shifted from strength to headwind. Dynamic asset allocation approaches can help investors weather the associated equity market churn. himountresearch.com/secular-headwi…
Trends for United States
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