Herman Laret @macro84
Macro Investor. Salomon Brothers bond trading roots. Opinions are my own. Not investment advice. Avid soccer player/fan. New York, NY 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇳🇱 Joined January 2013-
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The NFIB Business Optimism index came in up 0.5pts to 100.8 which was 0.2 below consensus and indicating a marginally positive business sentiment. The Outlook deteriorated, dropping 2pts to 34.0. Sales were flat, but expectations rose 6pts. Prices and price plans both dropped,…
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Over 70% probability of 75bps of cuts being priced into December FOMC meeting now. September 25bps cut is baked in with 10% probability of 50bps. The August employment report underscored mounting weakness in the U.S. labor market, with declines in jobs, flat hours worked, and…
Jobs report show deceleration... weakest print since the pandemic recovery phase. It also shouldn't come as a surprise that Non Farm Payrolls might disappoint this month, given other anecdotal evidence (Challenger, ISM, ADP etc). Still, 22k (+1.466m YoY) is weak and unsupportive…
US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs A good mix of revisions..... A narrative that efficiency gains are outpacing wage pressures, supporting both corporate margins and the case for potential policy easing Evidence of improving economic efficiency and moderating inflation…
Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow Q3 SAAR nowcast comes in at 3.0% or unchanged from Tuesday. After recent releases from the BEA, the Census Bureau, and ISM, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth…
WEAK. The 3rd employment related release today, the Challenger Job Cuts report, at 85,979 (3k less than estimates) was an increase in job cuts of 23,904 (39%) compared to July and up 13% from 76k a year ago. This is the highest Aug since 2020 and, excluding 2020, the highest…
ISM Services came in 1pt better than expected and up 1.9pts to 52.0 and marking the third consecutive month of expansion. The expansion was primarily driven by significant improvements in New Orders (56.0%, +5.7) and Business Activity (55.0%, +2.4). However, persistent employment…
The 2nd of 3 employment related releases today, the weekly jobless claims, was somewhat mixed. US jobless claims rose 8k on the week and 7k more than expected to 237k (most in over 2 months) while the 4-week average rose 2.5k to 231k. However, the Continuing Claims dropped 4k…
ADP employment by company size: Shows how important the small businesses are in the US. The largest group: 50-249 employees; 2nd largest group: 1-19 employees. 73% of total employees work at firms with less than or equal to 249 employees. But where has the growth been since…
ADP Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 54k Jobs (42k were service-providing with balance goods producing) in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%. Interesting mention on AI. Bottom line: hiring slowed but stayed positive, gains were concentrated in services…
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