Financial Conspectus @sshkry

All my blogging is aimed at spotting market turbulence in advance. Blogging serves that main purpose. Joined February 2011

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

5 days ago

The good news is that real incomes are growing OK. Real personal income ex. transfers (so basically just factor income earned from labor and capital) grew 1.41% year-on-year. That's a slowdown from 2024's 1.71% but it's still a fine pace.

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Gregory Daco @GregDaco

5 days ago

Consumer resilience is welcome, but income disparities signal a fragile K-shaped spending outlook 📊Real disposable income growth +1.9% y/y 📊Real consumer spending growth +2.7% y/y ⚠️Weaker employment & wage growth will constrain income & spending for silent majority into '26

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Scott Winship @swinshi

4 weeks ago

Hard to find an example in the LT unemp chart where it turned up for a similar duration and didn’t mark a recession. Also note that these RATES aren’t mechanically affected by declining immigration (and probably minimally affected through CPS weights).

Ben Casselman @bencasselman

4 weeks ago

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Steven Rattner @SteveRattner

4 weeks ago

Job growth in 2025 so far has been dominated by the education & health sectors.

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Kathy Jones @KathyJones

2 months ago

Import prices ex petroleum rose by 0.3% the largest increase in a year.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

2 months ago

PPI trade services is not a good source for the level of margins or markups--it's expressed as an index, not a percent, and it leaves out many costs, in particular fixed costs--but as a barometer of margins on goods sold it is notable that it's been accelerating.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

2 months ago

The big upside PPI inflation surprise was driven by final demand trade services, a measure of retail & wholesale margins. Margins on private capital equipment grew 14.5% YY & on personal consumption by 4.9%, both the highest nonpandemic growth since each began in 2009. This is…

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Michael McDonough @M_McDonough

2 months ago

US PPI MoM% Breakdown from ECAN<Go>:

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Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat

2 months ago

Massive upside surprise to July PPI at 0.9% m/m vs 0.2% est. And the surge was broad. Woof.

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Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat

2 months ago

The increase in PPI was driven by services, and there were increases in general services costs *and* in the Trade component (i.e. wholesale/retail margins). The Fed won't like this report.

Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat

2 months ago

The increase in PPI was driven by services, and there were increases in general services costs *and* in the Trade component (i.e. wholesale/retail margins). The Fed won't like this report. https://t.co/aJ8FIbZOvp

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Michael McDonough @M_McDonough

2 months ago

Tariffs raise import costs, and wholesalers/retailers often hike markups to protect profits—pushing PPI “services” higher. Less foreign competition can also lift U.S.-made goods prices, so both goods and services PPI can climb even without stronger demand.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

2 months ago

In sum: - Core inflation higher than last month. - Still lots of signs of tariff passthrough to specific goods, especially durables. - Core services inflation also hotter, mix of perhaps one-offs (airfares) & less clear stories (auto repair, medical). - Groceries & energy down.

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Joseph Brusuelas @joebrusuelas

2 months ago

US July CPI: It’s a meaningful increase in inflation that points to upward pricing pressures across the economy for the remainder of the year. Sticky service sector pricing & tariff induced inflation are all over the report. The Fed will be forced to reconcile the tension…

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Kathy Jones @KathyJones

2 months ago

CPI rose by 0.2% overall for a yr/yr gain of 2.7%. Core rose by 0.3% for a yr/yr gain of 3.1%. Report is mostly in line with expectations.

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Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders

2 months ago

July CPI #inflation +2.7% vs. +3% est. & +2.7% in prior month … core CPI +3.1% vs. +2.8% est. & +2.9% in prior month

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*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

2 months ago

NICK TIMIRAOS ON FED RATE DECISION: The bar for a rate cut changed after the July payroll report. A September rate cut could've been derailed by a hot CPI print today. The July CPI wasn't a "no inflation" reading, but it likely wasn't hot enough to stop a September cut

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

2 months ago

Headline CPI 0.29% MM/2.70% YY, core CPI 0.32% MM/3.06% YY. Small upside surprise on monthly headline inflation, rest in line with expectations. Grocery & energy prices declined MM, core goods inflation stayed at a warm 0.2%, & core services inflation picked up to 0.4%.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

2 months ago

Core services ex. housing prices accelerated to 0.48% MM/3.27% YY. A big driver was a 4% increase in airline fares, which are volatile. Medical care services grew 0.8% MM (versus 0.6% in June), and motor vehicle repair grew 1% (versus 0.2% in June).