Jonathan Fortun @econchart

Macroeconomist @IIF. Sci-Fi Lover. Bolivian. [email protected] iif.com/Administration… Washington, DC Joined May 2018

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Rob Hawcroft @robhawcroft

a week ago

@Brad_Setser IIF's Jonathan Fortun's @econchart comments on Argent. He also has a really good series of articles on Bolivia. linkedin.com/posts/jfortun_…

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IIF UPDATE 📢 Portfolio flows to emerging markets #EM hit $44.8 bn in August, a rise from $38.1 bn in July, but we see rising fragility, as while #debt flows hit $41.5 bn, equity inflows fell sharply to just $3.3 bn 📉 @econchart Read More: ow.ly/gzj150WV8NG

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

a week ago

Ecuador ended diesel subsidies on Sep 12 By the weekend, protests had begun Bolivia is next. A 16% deficit and vanishing reserves make subsidies unsustainable Both candidates promise to end them. Event studies show what follows: inflation jumps FX collapse linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

2 weeks ago

EMs FX used to sell off when US term premia rose That was the rule. For years, it worked. But in 25, something broke. Higher premia→stronger EMFX The relationship has flipped. This is not positioning. It is structural. Credibility is being priced Beta trade is being retired.

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

2 weeks ago

The labor market is not gliding toward equilibrium. It is fracturing. Participation is falling in key states. U3 is distorted by disappearing supply. The migration shock amplified the break. Aggregates mislead. The weakness is already here.

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

3 weeks ago

Bolivia’s zombie virus just mutated. The Central Bank is injecting unsterilized liquidity by monetizing gold. Inflation risks are rising. The parallel FX dip is a mirage. Reserves are being padded with metal that can’t pay bills The contagion is spreading linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…

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IIF @IIF

4 weeks ago

🆕 @MarcelloEstevao @econchart: Private hiring has slowed sharply 📉 July's payroll gain was the weakest since the #COVID #recession, highlighting recent U.S. #LaborMarket deterioration Read More: ow.ly/At8Z50WOfcI

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

4 weeks ago

#Bolivia crisis didn’t end with the vote. It metastasized. Part 2 of my zombie series is out: “They Don’t Die. They Borrow: Bolivia’s Undead Republic” Doria Medina returns. Gold is gone. Pensions are drained. The state still walks. But is it alive? linkedin.com/pulse/dont-die…

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

a month ago

Bolivia’s election did not bring change. It brought back the undead. Paz Pereira vs Tuto is not renewal. It is political recycling The country now walks among its own zombies My analysis: linkedin.com/pulse/zombies-…

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

a month ago

Elecciones en Bolivia: en el wasteland fiscal que deja el MAS, no importa quién tome el volante. El ajuste será brutal, el desempleo se disparará y la política puede quebrarse rápido. El futuro es dolor. Mi último análisis completo aquí linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…

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Jonathan Fortun @econchart

2 months ago

Bond spreads tell a fairy tale. Bolivia faces one of the largest fiscal adjustments in EM history — 16% of GDP — with no political armor, no reserves, and a shrinking export base. History says this ends in reversal, not reform. Full breakdown: linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

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Juan Pablo Álvarez @JPAperiodista

2 months ago

🇧🇴Trade electoral en Bolivia: a un mes de los comicios, el riesgo país perfora los 1.500 puntos. Dejo esta nota que publicamos, con comentarios de @econchart bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/…

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IIF @IIF

4 months ago

📢 IIF: Global growth is losing momentum Our forecast anticipates global growth of 2.7% in 2025, well below the average of 3.7% seen from 2011-2019 - a slowdown that is broad based, but uneven 📉 Read More: ow.ly/qo4F50W8juJ @MarcelloEstevao @econchart

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IIF @IIF

4 months ago

.@MarcelloEstevao & @econchart report: Despite recent turbulence, the U.S. #dollar's global dominance remains intact, still accounting for over 58% of disclosed global reserves, but gradual diversification continues 📊 Read Now: ow.ly/fZiC50VTV7U

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IIF @IIF

5 months ago

🆕 IIF Capital Flows Tracker for May 2025: Portfolio flows to #EMs came to a standstill in April - total non-resident flows registered an outflow of $0.2 billion, a dramatic shift from March's $37.5 billion @econchart Read More: ow.ly/xThS50VQ6n5

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IIF @IIF

5 months ago

.@econchart projects growth rates of 1.2% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026 for Japan 🇯🇵 with a mild contraction in Q3 2025 due to trade tensions and domestic consumption fatigue 📊 See More: ow.ly/3wPH50VM50I

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IIF @IIF

6 months ago

IIF SPECIAL REPORT ON #TARIFFS 💸 Economists @MarcelloEstevao & @econchart assess the structure and market impact of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff announcement, which blends a 10% universal tax with country-specific additions Read More: ow.ly/tB8F50Vub2i

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IIF @IIF

6 months ago

Economists @MarcelloEstevao & @econchart examine #Europe's #fiscaloutlook as rising defense spending reshapes priorities. Germany, France, Italy & Spain face serious pressure, balancing constraints and increased military spending 💰💰 Read More: ow.ly/ehwP50VsnmL