Got to love this $HQI proposed $TBI acquisition
HQI CEO is taking it to the public shareholders to decide whether TBI should sell at $7.50 per share. Both stock have been pummelled. But I like this bold move by HQI CEO. This disclosure that there was a previous offer at $12.30…
US policy chaos has already damaged the economy, by undermining confidence and forcing companies to postpone capex and hiring. That was the story of Q1. But the real recession risk comes from lower earnings over the summer, and how the corporate sector responds.. 🧵
$RYAM 2025 FCF drop isn’t due to lower profitability : EBITDA is stable ($215M-$235M) and CS biz is strong. The decline comes from lost one-time 2024 boosts (lumber duty refund, tax refunds, WC release), higher interest ($93M), CapEx ($85M), and less WC benefit ($5M vs. $25M).
Tarrifs negatively impact directly (35m) and indirectly (stalled negociat’ on plant sales) $RYAM. That said, improved 18% EBITDA margin in CS biz is expected to record even higher EBITDA in 2025 (tariffs impact incl.). Plus, mgmt expects to mitigate most of this impact. LT view.
$RYAM:“new debt structure allows us […] to opportunistically make strategic investments that will fuel the growth of our biomaterials strategy.” Today $BRG.OL announced 5-10% capa increase in CS projected ~2027. While clear sign of tight industry capa, eyes on $RYAM strategy ~27
Thanks to Patrick for prompting me to Twitter. Paraphrasing the immemorial words of Mr. Buffett, I suppose I’m now in the house...We’ll see if I do this more than 6 times in 6 years!
Thanks to Patrick for prompting me to Twitter. Paraphrasing the immemorial words of Mr. Buffett, I suppose I’m now in the house...We’ll see if I do this more than 6 times in 6 years!
$RYAM restructures debt. 3mth SOFR+7%, 5 yr term loan of 700M. Now, key points to monitor: 1.Potential asset sale timeline. Simplified debt structure may earn time and room for negociation; 2.Operation profitability and FCF generation power, engines for a healthier balance sheet.
$RYAM Jesup A line is reestablished at 80% capacity, ahead of estimated recovery delay. B line recovery in line with estimation (Oct. 28). Implies that the core parts (e.g. registers) were not damaged severely.
1/10 I recently published an article discussing two of investing's hidden costs which are absolutely crucial to consider when comparing gross returns. These are...
(a) Taxes
(b) Commissions
I conducted a brief experiment showing the impact these can have on LT performance.…
The US is importing record amounts of high-end computers, GPUs/CPUs, plus other related computer parts from Taiwan & its cutting-edge chipmaker TSMC—in total, imports across these three categories were $37B over the last year and continue rising amidst the AI & data center boom
One of my all-time favorite CEOs is John Malone, profiled in Mark Robichaux's "Cable Cowboy". I recently re-read the book, and it inspired me to compile this list of Malone's Top 10 lessons for CEOs:
This is incredible:
The difference in size of the US equity market VS other areas just keeps getting bigger
US stock market size is over $50 TRILLION
Which is bigger than the combined value of Asia and Europe’s stock markets
Unreal
Nelnet's education software + payments division $NNI
- Closing in on $500 million in revenue, growing 17.5% per year since 2012
- EBIT inflecting to over $100 million, growing faster than revenue
The division is now highly cash generative and a huge value compared to the ~$4…
$RYAM increases FCF guidance for FY24. Gross profit margin, oper. profit margin clearly improved. FY24 FCF yield now at 28% level. Non-core asset sales in progress. Still in the early innings of a turnaround. If global recession (unlikely though), then headwind for turnaround.
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