HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

L/S equity. New York, NY Joined August 2015

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

2 months ago

$RCL clearly saying on the call that extended booking curve has peaked and is set to shrink.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

4 months ago

Stifel ups $PLNT to buy with +50% increase in TP on essentially unchanged est's and already trading at full 20x NTM EBITDA. Thanks guys and good luck with that.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

Since when is -20ppts decel in 2-yr SSS and lack of an upward revision cycle after F25 guide below a qtr ago worth 75x NTM EBITDA? $CAVA

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

BofA filling bags in $COCO by pricing exit liquidity way too tight at $34.50 per share. Look out below if fund'l issues arise esp given recent credible short report.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

$TXRH looks like an attractive short-scalp opp'y as margin pressures + valuation limit upside risk and traffic pressure not visible yet appears likely to build.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

$LUCK doing what deSPAC roll ups do.

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$PLNT 1Q miss/maintain on light new adds ain't good but will no doubt get a pass from sellside. Now much harder to underwrite upside to 2025 est's which matters to pods esp since they're fully aware new CFO had a track record of consistently missing in previous seats.

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kiwicarrotcake @kiwicarrotcake

5 months ago

$wsm short >151

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

If $CCL and $NCLH aren't buys here then the belief that $RCL and $VIK "will be fine" is ngmi.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

$CCL used to "wipe the floor" with $RCL 25 years ago and oh my how the tables have turned.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

5 months ago

There's the proverbial initial momentum break in $EAT as revised F25 (Jun) EPS guide of $8.50-8.75 takes $10+ expectations off the table esp since mgmt indicated revised topline guide reflects "sustained elevated sales levels consistent with recent trends."

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

6 months ago

Dreaded "Gap and Crap" pattern

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

6 months ago

Surely there are many that are also intrigued by underlying premise that $COCO mgmt purposely undershipped to protect GMs from freight-cost bounce back in 2024 esp as sales decelerated from +15% to +5% y/y?

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

6 months ago

For me there will never be a better sellside note title than ML on INSP at the height of the Internet bubble -> "En Fuego - Buy at Any Price." Kept a bunch of the IPO prospectuses from that time but always wish I'd kept a copy of that report.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

6 months ago

"Investors" really aren't that worried about recession if $DRI is pushing ATHs. Annual CDR frequency is ~2x so why is it so surprising they haven't seen any slowdown yet?

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

7 months ago

$DKS F4Q print and F25 guide below more evidence of hefty cost of experiential strategy. Lack of flowthrough a big part of the debate now and if "re-based" margins narrative begins to get questioned look out below.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

7 months ago

Only takes a bit of market sobriety for guys to jettison fantasy narratives in shitcos with catchy tickers like $LOVE and $LUCK.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

7 months ago

Listen closely to $ANF price action saying there is no floor when belief in the "rebased margins" narrative goes kaput.

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HTL Capital @hardtoleecap

7 months ago

Old enough to remember when pandemic lottery winner $FIGS had $1B 2025 revenue target. Only needed +80% growth to get there but alas guiding to -LSD% y/y.