Intel Arb @intelarb
Macro | Cross-Asset | Markets Joined February 2020-
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Private credit is rolling over! While 'actual' private credit is barely moving due to lack of liquidity, the large BDCs are showing significant weakness. This follows bankruptcies of both First Brand Groups and Tricolor Holdings in the past few weeks. $ARCC $BXSL $OBDC
This is the problem with AI. All the money and focus is coming from companies that make money by rotting our brains with ads and convincing us toward pointless consumption. Passive investing, the Fed, lack of anti-trust pressure, and geriatric DC representatives are to blame.
This is the problem with AI. All the money and focus is coming from companies that make money by rotting our brains with ads and convincing us toward pointless consumption. Passive investing, the Fed, lack of anti-trust pressure, and geriatric DC representatives are to blame.
The US Equity market is a bubble, here is why: In my mind, to be defined as a "bubble" the potential for a sudden "pop" needs to be there. No matter how you define it, the probability of an extremely large drawdown in the S&P 500 has exponentially increased in the past few…
Why are the engagement rings you see on social media getting so big? Because lab-grown diamonds have become virtually indistinguishable from real diamonds, and real diamond prices have fallen -60% in 3 years.
Asking ChatGPT about the Etsy/Shopify news, embedded checkout with the app. Basically says smaller sellers are going to be at a huge disadvantage. $ETSY $SHOP $MSFT
The average Wall Street thesis has gone from “big tech is growing so fast, valuations are not stretched” To “valuations don’t matter because they have such strong moats and will make AGI” To now “Ya it’s a bubble, but it’ll be an even bigger bubble 3 years from now” $QQQ
The average Wall Street thesis has gone from “big tech is growing so fast, valuations are not stretched” To “valuations don’t matter because they have such strong moats and will make AGI” To now “Ya it’s a bubble, but it’ll be an even bigger bubble 3 years from now” $QQQ
Patriots organization has existed for decades. Extremely loyal customer base. Mall/restaurants apart of stadium complex. $9B value. Nvidia is $4.3 trillion. You could buy the New England Patriot organization 477 times and that would still be less than 1 Nvidia. $NVDA
"Inflation is not a problem" Since 2024 Silver Miners +140% Gold Miners +135% Silver +81% Gold +80% CPI is not "inflation". It's a price basket made by economists designed so the Fed doesn't have to hike. Purchasing power is being eroded, the deterioration of fiat currencies…
CALLED IT!! $LAC +70% AFTER HOURS The Trump Administration is seeking up to a 10% government equity stake in Lithium Americas
CALLED IT!! $LAC +70% AFTER HOURS The Trump Administration is seeking up to a 10% government equity stake in Lithium Americas
Tacos y Quesadillas Mexico, Food Truck - Upper West Side
National Capitalism: A Framework to Help Think About the Intel Deal and Government Equity Stakes 📔 Someone who has been (indirectly) all over this is Russell Napier. He's taken his relatively popular American Affairs article from last year and turned it into a commonly…
The UK Equity Bear Case: While European equities, the UK specifically, and valued stocks are all secularly under-owned; fading the rally in UK equities for the next 3-6 months makes sense. You have budget issues and a problematic rise in yields, yet UK equities are somehow at…
ABSOLUTELY SNIPED $LAC +70% AFTER HOURS The Trump Administration is seeking up to a 10% government equity stake in Lithium Americas
ABSOLUTELY SNIPED $LAC +70% AFTER HOURS The Trump Administration is seeking up to a 10% government equity stake in Lithium Americas
Silver / copper ratio surging towards highs of the decade. Copper starting to look cheap relative to precious metals... $SLV $FCX $COPX
The Slow-Motion Train Wreck 🖊️ Despite global inflation consistently falling since the end of 2022, the long-end of sovereign yield curves have consistently grinded higher. Despite nominal growth falling, despite oil coming down from over $100 to near $60, and despite supply…
Profit Margins, H1-Bs, and Mean Reversion Throughout the past few decades corporate profit margins have consistently grinded higher. The growth in profits and cash flows has of course largely contributed to the outperformance from US equities, specifically large caps, relative…
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