Douglas @MMTmacrotrader
Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies https://t.co/JlkCFHwW8S appliedmmt.com Joined March 2016-
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Since rates are dropping here's a Treasury Yields 101 primer: The Fed/Treasury are the monopoly price setter of rates and we have their playbook for how they set them. So when rates fall, its telling us that the market is indifferent between holding reserves or treasuries at…
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DeepMMT does it again. 2 + years of pinpoint accuracy. 🎯 Put your politics aside, what MMT does for traders/investors is give you the proper framework for analysis of the core driver of asset prices: flows. Accurate forecasting begins with understanding flows & their impact.
DeepMMT does it again. 2 + years of pinpoint accuracy. 🎯 Put your politics aside, what MMT does for traders/investors is give you the proper framework for analysis of the core driver of asset prices: flows. Accurate forecasting begins with understanding flows & their impact. https://t.co/LTQ99YVEo7
I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
Literally the fate of the US economy in the hands of the SCOTUS. Trump Wins and this cycle tops sometime in 2026 and SHTF. Trump loses and this bull run likely has legs for years to come.
Literally the fate of the US economy in the hands of the SCOTUS. Trump Wins and this cycle tops sometime in 2026 and SHTF. Trump loses and this bull run likely has legs for years to come.
Initial claims slightly above expectations, however no sign of a deteriorating business cycle. If initial claims were rising with bank credit falling, that'd be bad. But initial claims trending sideways while bank credit is rising, that means we're fine for now.
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
Douglas retweeted
@Muhammad_Okoye Any and all good/services that are priced in the govts currency can always be bought by the govt, but that's not the point im making. It's that net govt spending acts as the core safe financial asset foundation for the rest of their balance sheet to leverage from.
Why inflation tells us where were at in the business cycle: This video gets a bit technical, but its important detail for understanding the causal impact of inflation on the credit/business cycle. youtu.be/7Aj0Qeg29nk
Trace the source of that 'risk capital' back to its origin and you'll see it all comes back to fiscal. The US just spends more. This is why US capitalism is so successful - were willing to foot the bill for capitalisms 1000 failures just to find the 1 society changing success.
Trace the source of that 'risk capital' back to its origin and you'll see it all comes back to fiscal. The US just spends more. This is why US capitalism is so successful - were willing to foot the bill for capitalisms 1000 failures just to find the 1 society changing success.
Massively Bullish.
It's hard to get an endogenous end to a cycle without a sustained acceleration of inflation. The feedback loop looks like this: Growth -> more investment/money -> more demand -> more profits -> more growth but also -> higher markups -> higher wages -> rising inflation -> slowing…
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