Why 40x Earnings May Not Hold
FAST trades at ~40x NTM P/E vs. a 10yr avg of 27x.
EPS revisions are flat. Vending growth is slowing.
Great business, but valuation looks stretched.
Mean reversion risk is real.
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Like $VFC here: 1) Vans women’s mix is inflecting; 2) Avg shoe ASP has ticked higher for first time since ‘22 (~60% of Vans rev); 3) Weak Vans comps from inventory right sizing. 4) Dickies sale provides 2.5 yrs of runway removing solvency risk.
Tepper’s Part 2A will go down as the best ever. “Seeks to obtain annual returns substantially in excess” — AKA we are in the business of making MONEY.
…Not many built like Tepper anymore
$BABA trades ~10% higher than HK 9988 shares. Hong Kong markets have been closed since Wednesday… could see some pressure on ADRs if the spread persists Monday.
We viewed that our $UPS short could be explained by the two charts below. Price remained resilient vs. deteriorating fundamentals in the summer of ‘23.
That said, We think that majority of the juice is squeezed from this one and we closed our short today.
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