page @michaelhpage

Joined January 2011

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page @michaelhpage

5 months ago

I'm proud to have contributed to this letter opposing OpenAI's proposed restructuring, and honored to be in such good company in doing so. notforprivategain.org

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page @michaelhpage

2 years ago

For all of my 74 twitter followers: ~$19MM-$21MM in grants will be distributed in Sept from a Survival and Flourishing Fund grant round. Apps due June 27. survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2023-h2-ap…

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The Forecasting Research Institute now exists (I'm a co-founder). forecastingresearch.org Its mandate is to advance the science of forecasting for the public good--& is now hiring research and data analysts, content editors, and RAs. forecastingresearch.org/apply Please spread the word

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CSET @CSETGeorgetown

4 years ago

✨New Issue Brief✨ Can forecasting tools reduce uncertainty in policy debates? Michael Page describes the results of a process using the wisdom of the crowd to arbitrate expert disagreement on the future of the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship. cset.georgetown.edu/publication/wi…

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CSET @CSETGeorgetown

4 years ago

Interested in participating in a forecasting project? @CSETForetell is exploring the future of the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship using a two-stage process with stakeholder and crowd judgment. Register to be a forecaster here: intake.cset-foretell.com/users/sign_up cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-re…

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

4 years ago

We want to thank Terry Murray for sharing her wisdom on today's Foretell In Conversation and everyone who joined and submitted great questions! Watch it on Foretell's new YouTube channel if you missed it: youtu.be/_b0-UHHhxcI

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

Foretell's Pro Forecasters are geared up for Season 02. Our latest post explains more about the program: cset-foretell.com/blog/pro-forec…

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CSET @CSETGeorgetown

5 years ago

The latest @CSETForetell blog post discusses how crowd #forecasting is an effective tool to outperform historical data and improve policymaking. Read the full post here: cset-foretell.com/blog/crowd-per…

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page @michaelhpage

5 years ago

Early Foretell results on crowd performance v. projections based on historical data: cset-foretell.com/blog/crowd-per…

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Jungwon @jungofthewon

5 years ago

one of the best things to come out of @oughtinc hackathon today: @manda_ngo teaching gpt3 to reframe negative thoughts positively. cc @elicitorg

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CSET @CSETGeorgetown

5 years ago

.@CSETForetell needs your help making a prediction! Question: What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022 if President Trump is––or is not––convicted of "incitement of insurrection?" Answer this (and other questions): cset-foretell.com/questions

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Andreas Stuhlmüller @stuhlmueller

5 years ago

Language model experiment @oughtinc: Take a vague forecasting question ("What will the future of robotics look like?"), generate measurable subquestions ("How many industrial robots sold per year?"), then generate a data source for each measurement ("Intl Federation of Robotics")

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

#CSETForetell is exploring different uses of our crowd forecast data, including how to improve predictions on "black swan" events. See the new blog post by @CSETGeorgetown Research Fellow @michaelhpage forecasting conflict in the South China Sea. buff.ly/37Xkqoa

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page @michaelhpage

5 years ago

Dear 10 twitter followers. Foretell has a trilogy of election-based conditional forecasting questions on which I'd love a rush of activity over the next four days. Please consider informing the below graph (among others) by forecasting at cset-foretell.com

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page @michaelhpage

5 years ago

New CSET issue brief on how we're using crowd forecasting on Foretell to inform big picture questions. cset.georgetown.edu/research/futur…

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

2/2 Visit #CSETForetell to see the trends in Big 5 Tech revenue. For Q3 2020, there is an 85% chance that revenue remains steady or increases.

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

1/2 Is Big Tech crowding out startups? #BigTech is raising more money relative to startups than in the past, with one exception. #AI startups. 👉See our analysis on the blog: buff.ly/3hsGdpH 👉Then, help predict Big Tech revenue in Q3: buff.ly/2PwFrLZ

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

New blog post: #AI-augmented #surveillance to help counter #COVID19 could strengthen authoritarian governments and threaten democracy in 2025. @jackclarkSF, @OpenAI Policy Director, explains and highlights the metrics we're tracking on #CSETForetell. cset-foretell.com/blog/surveilla…

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

How will #COVID19 impact the #MachineLearning research field? A new blog post by @CSETGeorgetown Research Fellow @timhwang discusses what we're forecasting on #CSETForetell to understand the future outlook. #AI #forecasting #AIresearch cset-foretell.com/blog/covid-imp…

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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

5 years ago

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month #STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by mid-July? Make a forecast and see what the crowd says: buff.ly/3dzGnZC