benjAImin @smallfishmacro

A.I Generated Market Insights & Investments 🪬 ||| Global Macro Piglet 🐷 ||| Quant Octopus 🐙 Geneva Switzerland Joined May 2013

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 days ago

Stress is building beneath the surface⚠️ The Trend Health Model flipped BEARISH on Oct 16. Since then, the system has reduced exposure and added volatility hedges again this week. No predictions. No narratives. Just signals and risk management. Let’s see how this plays out📉

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

5 days ago

Yes it will be a nightmare. On the other hand he does not understand how europeans wake up when they do, particularly germans... It is not going to be pretty. I hope for everyone things change before the breaking point...

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 weeks ago

FR-DE 10y spread at 130bps 👀

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 months ago

France could be the next bearish macro catalyst. FR-DE 10y spread at 81bps, approaching the highs. Eurozone momentum decelerating. An ECB hiking into the slowdown. Equities aren't waiting — SPY/EWQ already at cycle highs. And the 2027 election hasn't even started.

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

The system bought some volatility at yesterday’s close. No macro thesis. No hot take. No crystal ball. The model saw something it didn’t like and acted. I am not making the rules. 🤷‍♂️📈 $SPY $VIX $QQQ

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

August fed us well. 🍽️📈 +14% MTD across the global portfolio. No noise. No emotions. Just systematic execution and compounding. The whole family is eating good. 😎 September, your move.

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

You’re not bullish enough. Trend Health Model: 85.7% BULL 🟢 Bull regime since April 8th. 20 indicators still broadly aligned. But sure, let’s wait for the 47th macro doomer thread to tell us why the bull market is over. 😌📈 $SPY $QQQ $BTC

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

Just when I started doubting Daddy’s account… it decided to have its BEST MONTH EVER. 😂📈 3 years of live performance. Started slow to protect capital. Now in aggressive capital growth mode. 3.39 Sortino after 3 years live. Smash or pass? 😉

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

Mummy’s account isn’t slowing down. 🔥 The beast just keeps roaring against all odds: +164.6% cumulative 58.5% CAGR 2.28 Sharpe Fully systematic. Fully live. Zero discretion. Let the model do the work. 📈

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

2 months ago

US 2s10s curve is bear steepening. Before panicking, check 2 dials: inflation swaps falling to ~2%, MOVE at the lows. That rules out inflation fear AND debt scare. What's left: a growth upgrade! the market raising the US cruising speed. Higher r*, not higher risk.

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

5 months ago

Consensus advice is optimized for the advice-giver’s constraints, not yours Big funds optimize for size TV experts optimize for engagement Pros optimize for not getting fired Retail gurus optimize for selling you certainty Know your own constraints. That’s where the edge starts

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 months ago

“You are not competing with your neighbor; you are competing with quants, banks, and machines” “Stop trading. Hire someone who does this for a living” “You wouldn’t perform surgery on yourself. Why manage your wealth like a hobby?” 🤔 $SPY $QQQ $BTC #FinTwit #StockMarket

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 months ago

Contrary to what financial pundits want you to believe... 🇮🇷 Iran war. 🤖 AI bubble burst. ₿ Crypto crisis. The headlines changed. The regime didn't. Since April 8th, the tend has remained BULLISH. Ignore the noise. Follow the trend. 📈

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 months ago

@VolatilityQ I think Disney movies are still a bit too advanced for my 2.5-year-old. We're starting with My Neighbor Totoro (1988) by Miyazaki, which feels much more appropriate. Every frame feels like art, and it captures the wonder and innocence of childhood. He loves it, can only reco 🤗

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

3 months ago

@_alfiekerswell ACCESS

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

4 months ago

One macro tailwind is fading 🌍📉 The OECD G20 Composite LEI is rolling over, pointing to weaker global growth momentum Not a recession call But it does suggest a less supportive backdrop for risk assets. Fewer tailwinds, more selective opportunities Stay data-driven

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

4 months ago

<span>Excess Returns on Idiosyncratic Profitability: Evidence from a Hedge Portfolio Strategy</span> @SSRN papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

4 months ago

@VolatilityQ Love for you and your family ❤️

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benjAImin @smallfishmacro

4 months ago

25% hedge closed ✅ It did its job: helped navigate the past 1.5 months of whipsaw without abandoning the trend With the consolidation complete, Fed hikes priced in, and the Goldilocks regime supportive, models are calling for less protection Now letting the bull trend work 📈