Tornado Alert US @stormhqtorE

Well, this is concerning. The latest models are shifting and showing that #94L will be on a potential collision course with the Carolinas. Nothing is certain yet, and a lot will change, but have your hurricane plans at hand in case of the worst-case scenario.

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Storm HQ @stormhq_

16 hours ago

Well, this is concerning. The latest models are shifting and showing that #94L will be on a potential collision course with the Carolinas. Nothing is certain yet, and a lot will change, but have your hurricane plans at hand in case of the worst-case scenario. https://t.co/7ognOSFdt4

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It's difficult right now to predict what will be the exact outcome of this but those in the Bahamas, Florida, and pretty much the entire US EASTCOAST NEED TO MONITOR because here's the thing any ball can play.

We're on the brink of witnessing something that perhaps we have never seen before. Two tropical systems near the US east coast is about to form in very similar proximity. This will be very complex to forecast. Models are gonna struggle with forecasting #94L and #Humberto.

In bed, recovering from a brutal chase. My 82nd core penetration did not come easy, but it did come. Got into #Typhoon #RAGASA's eye on Hailing Island #China around 6 pm. Storm was decaying but violent. Eyewall was gusty, explosive, micobursty. Lots of damage to hotel & trees.

#Gabrielle Becomes the second major Hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season after rapidly intensifying during today. Something tells me certainly this won't be the last major hurricane of the season.

maybe the most beautiful photo ive ever taken

Flooding Across the Philip Goldson Hwy going into Belize City. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. Stay tuned for further updates.

Its also important to note that many of these "scenarios" appear to be an OTS outcome and no direct landfall threat as of now.

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The EC-AIFS model shows that the backloaded season idea could be an outcome. We do see here that going into late September, we have multiple areas of interest in the MDR. That aligns with the potential return of the MJO phase in the Atlantic.

We have approximately 47-48% of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season remaining. So far, we have seen 6 named storms, 5 tropical storms, and 1 major category 5 hurricane. This means 1 of 2 things either we have a below average hurricane season or it's gonna be heavily back-loaded.

This is the reason why I have trust issues #91L.

Apologies regarding our previous post. Recon has found a LLC in invest #99L. Much different than our previous post highlighted. The LLC isn't defined & is rather messy. We will see what the 18z and 00z model updates will bring because so far, models are struggling with 99L.

The OSCAT3 Pass over Invest #99L confirms that it has a small center of circulation near 13.5-14.5°N, ~51-52°W. Stronger winds (25-35 kt, with some 40 kt) appear on the north and northeast quadrants. We will see what the NHC does later today.

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Invest #99L chances for development jumped to 40/40 due to increasing convection activity. Honestly, it's reminding me of Harvey back in 2017. I'm not saying it's gonna be Harvey, but with both having similar tracks & being underestimated by models, it's deja vu.

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Once 99L avoids land interaction, then the chances open for this to intensify. But currently, there's little to no model support on this exact scenario, but at this point, nothing can be ruled out.

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As for recent models, they show little to no organization except the Icon model, which pictures a very unique & quite troublesome scenario. If 99L manages to survive the Caribbean "Graveyard" & moves into the Gulf of Honduras or near 15N, 75W, then it may avoid land interaction.

We continue to monitor #99L closely. For some reason, models continue to underestimate the system, and it appears that as of recent satellite data, 99L appears to look fairly organized. It should continue to encounter somewhat favorable conditions over the next 2 days.

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#99L is those types of waves that may not seem much of a problem currently, but down the line could become one. Spaghetti plots take 99L well into the western Caribbean. It could become a headache once it taps into the untouched sea surface temperatures of the Caribbean.

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If you live in areas, especially coastal communities of North Carolina, South Carolina & Virginia. It's now important now more than ever to start making preparations because #Erin has defied our forecasts more than once and is moving much further southwest than anticipated.

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#Erin is really struggling to make that hard northeastern turn. You can see in every forecast that Erin tracks further southwest than anticipated, and as long as Erin continues to struggle with its strength, the more likely it is to shift more towards the US eastcoast.