Zen Macro @zenmacro
Anonymous investor Joined October 2022-
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Maps twist our perception of the world Here are 20 to rethink it: 1. Countries closer to the equator (~poorer) seem smaller than they are (map by @neilrkaye)
Hi @BobEUnlimited do you have any bibles on foreign exchange? I've got all these disjointed ideas kicking around. I need some books that will help me connect the dots...
Today I learned that fear of US protectionism was a significant factor leading up to the Plaza Accord. I don't really understand the causal connections but Volcker says this a few times in Changing Fortunes.
Tweet wisely. This isn't the time for firm opinions and certitude
Interesting to see this thing actually moving!
Good thing I didn't put any money behind this call
how's that stock/bond correlation doing? ⚖️ . over the last 6 months, was solidly positive .. began to invert beginning early February ... over the last 7 days, inverted completely 👇🏼 $SPY $TLT $AGG #stockmarket #bonds
Hindenburg is so good at shorting. Dorsey makes a lame emotional appeal that "people love Cash App so much they want to sing about it". So Hindenburg finds the exact references and show's it's a bunch of rappers using Cash App for illegal transactions 🤣 youtu.be/StjWk3Mj-M4
FOMC presser day is always exciting. Feels a bit like how Christmas felt as a kid. Pathetic, I know, but true!
From an engineering perspective this is pretty embarrassing for the Fed. Stress tests should see how the system performs under loads far beyond what is plausible. Imagine they built your home in Tahoe assuming that there would never be more than a foot of snow on the roof.
From an engineering perspective this is pretty embarrassing for the Fed. Stress tests should see how the system performs under loads far beyond what is plausible. Imagine they built your home in Tahoe assuming that there would never be more than a foot of snow on the roof.
Thinking this duration 'crisis' is like the GFC is off by an order of magnitude: - 08 cycle losses were around 1tln against about 1.2tln of bank capital coming in. - Today's unrealized (vs. capital), unhedged bond losses are on the order of 250bln vs. bank capital of 2.2tln.
Ignore all the competing narratives, and just focus on the chart of $QQQ. Possibly the most straightforward bullish rotation imaginable. Triple bottom at 260, break above resistance and the 200-day MA in Jan, pullback to breakout level in Feb, now rotating higher.
BANK CEOS ARE FOCUSED ON 1-4 MONTH TIMEFRAME IF FIRST REPUBLIC SALE FAILS - CNBC.
I wonder if the Fed is regretting all their communication over the last 5 years about the bank system being so robust. Maybe the latest troubles wouldn't have been such a big deal if the Fed wasn't constantly communicating that banks are rock solid...
All of my fav macro people are still forecasting a 25bps increase

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