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Over the past 2 weeks, SPX 30 day IV has risen 3% pts across strikes while SPX has also risen 3% over the same period (left chart). Similar times over the last 5 years noted on the right chart.
Over the past 2 weeks, SPX 30 day IV has risen 3% pts across strikes while SPX has also risen 3% over the same period (left chart). Similar times over the last 5 years noted on the right chart. https://t.co/0hRNxowTTd
While high NYSE upside days are often bullish, there are two different scenarios to consider: Chart 1) NYSE upside volume >95% usually signals a local bottom has been found Chart 2) NYSE upside volume >80% after 3 months of not having a 3% pullback can be a sign to be cautious
While high NYSE upside days are often bullish, there are two different scenarios to consider: Chart 1) NYSE upside volume >95% usually signals a local bottom has been found Chart 2) NYSE upside volume >80% after 3 months of not having a 3% pullback can be a sign to be cautious https://t.co/VZxYRjxYfc
The times SPX had 21-day gains >13% going back to 1960.
The times SPX had 21-day gains >13% going back to 1960. https://t.co/cqaCDwpxQI
Added a bit more context to the charts regarding each of the four prior crashes. Side note, today's comparable SPX levels at each crashes closing low: 2011 → SPX 4953 1998 → SPX 4956 1987 → SPX 4085 1962 → SPX 4425
Added a bit more context to the charts regarding each of the four prior crashes. Side note, today's comparable SPX levels at each crashes closing low: 2011 → SPX 4953 1998 → SPX 4956 1987 → SPX 4085 1962 → SPX 4425 https://t.co/JdPGZtWGNf
Friday's close was a rare occurrence of more than -3 standard deviations below the 20d while in a 15% drawdown. Only 4 other instances since the 1960s: - None occurred during recessions - All retested the lows in the weeks/months ahead
Back-to-back large volume upside days (86% and 91%). Below are the similar times with two >85% upside volume days immediately following a rapid <-8% decline. Six prior instances, all of them bearish towards a retest of the recent lows.
Back-to-back large volume upside days (86% and 91%). Below are the similar times with two >85% upside volume days immediately following a rapid <-8% decline. Six prior instances, all of them bearish towards a retest of the recent lows. https://t.co/Mo0doxJ0Dk
@WalterDeemer Since 2007, for the first 90% upside after a 10% drawdown, only one case went straight up (Dec 2018). Every other case either retested the lows or made new lows in the following weeks.
I don't place any weight on AAII but still pretty interesting the results you can get when you data mine a survey enough.
BIG BOUNCE⚠️ The first big bounce after a recent large drawdown that has an excessive advance/decline volume ratio (8-to-1) like today has typically been unstable. Five of the last six cases revisited the lows over the next few weeks before heading higher.
NDR's Daily Trading Sentiment is now back under 15, the first time since 2022. Below are the other historical dates the index was under 15.
Another signal today. Proceed with caution...
A note on Initial Claims: The non-seasonally adjusted data is currently in line with data since 2018. Comparing this to other recessions, you typically see a rise to seasonally high levels as a recession draws near.
The majority of days similar to today's large reversal occurred under a high VIX. When looking at cases where VIX < 20, there were only 3 hits going all the way back to 1993: Oct 2, 2015 Feb 9, 2018 and today...
The majority of days similar to today's large reversal occurred under a high VIX. When looking at cases where VIX < 20, there were only 3 hits going all the way back to 1993: Oct 2, 2015 Feb 9, 2018 and today... https://t.co/1jVEQuGLDA
A rare large reversal day on SPY. Below are the most similar days to today since 2010:
@vixologist A recent history of vol inversions...
An update; ended up being a 6% pullback.
An update; ended up being a 6% pullback. https://t.co/GTfg8oqL67
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