Calvin Triems @CTriems

Joined April 2020

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

3 years ago

@LionHirth Intraday sah es doch etwas anders aus, Solar ~6 GW unter DA forecast, ID average für Stunde 12 >60€, Stunde 18 im Peak bei 800€

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@VeroWendland @danielmack @JanAlbrecht @Die_Gruenen Meinen sie damit, dass es zwischen den Preisen im Terminhandel und den (erwarteten) Preisen in der Day-Ahead Auktion einen vorhersehbaren Unterschied gibt? 🤔

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Montel Analytics @MontelAnalytics

3 years ago

Absolute scenes in the day-ahead auctions for 2nd July delivery across Europe as excess solar and wind cause massive negative prices and re-runs of the market coupled auctions. Prices are now coming in but it looks like records are smashed in many markets. 🧵1/2 ^PH

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Montel Analytics @MontelAnalytics

3 years ago

DE: With renewables impacting our power systems so heavily, we sometimes tend to overlook the classic causes of extreme prices on intraday and balancing markets. Yesterday, we saw a classic power plant outage event at the worst possible time. ^JH

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Montel Analytics @MontelAnalytics

4 years ago

DE: Massive surplus in the German market, resulting in extreme negative balancing prices (lower than € -4500). The balancing traffic light showing deep red for 2 hours. Intraday markets also traded massively low, but not as extreme as the balancing market. ^JH

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@LionHirth As storages were almost at capacity in Oct., non-consumption had little effect on the S/D outlook beyond the front month. Now it does... Costly risk premiums on Cal-23, tied to the 'doom scenarios' of 0% storage by April and consequences on demand, are melting...

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@Emericdevigan TSO noted that it is due to the unavailability of Redispatch capacity and the underlying problem of missing grid capacity to get power from north to south. Onshore generation was multiples of yesterday's at the same time. Def. more of a grid issue. welt.de/wirtschaft/art…

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@McwilliamsBen @DCiripoi @GeorgZachmann Data is published on weekly and monthly agg. level. Weekly it also shows an above average dem for the last two weeks, but far more moderate then what the raw THE data from their mainly synthetic approach gives. bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/…

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@McwilliamsBen @DCiripoi @GeorgZachmann The BNetzA data for household dem. in DE (which they started publishing last week) might be another source. Data provider is also THE, but they use a more refined method for the hh demand, calculating the resid. of total gas volumes on dso level - industrial consumption.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

Why most likely an error? Such extreme deviations can not be found anywhere in the historical timeseries, especially outside of the winter months.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

The same steep increase seen in the gas demand monitor by @DIEZEIT, displaying the 7 day moving average.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

THE is reporting a rather wild datapoint for Industrial gas consumpiton for Sep. 5, coming from the underlying RLMmT H-Gas timeseries. Likely an error, but the effect is seen in many of the gas dem. monitors around. Puts emphasis on the fact that the data is indeed preliminary.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@CorneliusRoemer @c_endt Würde ich auch Vermuten. Der Status der Daten zu den kleinen Verbraucher (SLP) wechselt mit den Industriedaten der Großverbraucher (RLM) den Status zu "korrigiert", bzw "final". SLP Daten ab dem 30.6 gelten nach THE als "final". tradinghub.eu/de-de/Ver%C3%B…

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

The THE imeseries starts in October 2021, historic data from NetConnect Germany and Gaspool can be found here tradinghub.eu/en-gb/Download… and here tradinghub.eu/en-gb/Download…

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

For the raw-data enthusiasts, the underlying data for this chart is published by THE here: tradinghub.eu/en-gb/Publicat… The weekly agg. RLM sum matches the BNetzA numbers. THE also gives an indication on SLP consumption (~households). Caveats apply to the most recent datapoints.

Janis Kluge @jakluge

4 years ago

Fantastic new chart by @bnetza: Weekly and monthly gas consumption of Germany's industry. Monthly consumption in July was already 21.3% below average of previous 4 years. Meanwhile, Germany's economy still grew in the second quarter (although just a little bit).

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@LionHirth Comes with this disclaimer on the THE site: "Die Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen SLP Daten erfolgt täglich für den Folgetag, die Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen RLM Daten täglich für den Vortag. Korrigierte RLM Daten werden nach Übermittlung der M+12WT Meldung veröffentlicht."

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@LionHirth As there is surely data on the total consumption, they also provide an estimate for daily SLP (standard demand profile, customers < 100.000 kWh demand/y) consumption, probably via SLP = Total - RLM.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

German Power Cal-23 reaches 670€/MWh (+111€) @ EEX, and Gas-TTF is close to 300€/MWh with the Front Month @ 291€/MWh (+46€) and Q4 @ 296 €/MWh (+47€) However, again its not only the short term, but the whole forward curve up to 2025 that is pricing up ~15% Scary morning.

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

@LionHirth True, i missed that, the axis labels are off. Thank you for pointing it out! For completeness - and keeping the "%" - this is what i meant to plot:

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Calvin Triems @CTriems

4 years ago

It has been a crazy week of trading for 🇩🇪 power futures, especially for the long end of the forward curve. Power Base Cal-24 & Cal-25 jumped ~30% week-o-week To give some perspective, here is how this week's %-changes compare to the previous 260 weeks of trading. #energycrisis