Carl Bardolph @CarlBardolph

JUST IN: AI stocks now make up 49% of the S&P 500 — the 2nd largest concentration in history, behind only 1880s railroads

It’s time to bring it back

@MyFundedFutures Your 14-calendar day rolling period for payouts when already above the buffer is the worst in the industry.

No, to answer comments, no Ozempick! Just 2) cycling, 3) rucking, 4) sort of calisthenics (isometrics & TRX) & 5) Olympic presses. Plus red wine, white wine, rosé wine, arak, mastikha liqor, Armenian brandy, prosecco, squid ink, liver pâté, and a lot of Turkish coffee.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

3 months ago

The problem with "Voldemort" Sehnaoui (the flamboyant Lebanese Ponzi Banker) is that he is no Voldemort. He is just stupid, very stupid & very fragile.

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“Hey I just started at Northwestern Mutual…”

Google to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers, per CNBC

Peter Thiel has said he lets his two young children use screens for only an hour and a half per week, per FORTUNE

A fire alarm is going off and everyone is ignoring it.

A 20% gain in the S&P 500 tech sector in four weeks has happened only three times in 100 years. 1929. 2000. 2026. The first two times ended badly. The third just happened. The market is a great teacher. It just charges very high tuition for the same lesson.

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

6 months ago

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100%

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Trading is genuinely one of the hardest things you can do. Real money. Real pressure. Real emotions on the line every single day. Most people quit. The ones who stay and do the work end up free.

10 squats beats a 30 min walk. For blood sugar control after a meal, doing 10 squats every 45 minutes outperforms a dedicated 30 min walk by 14%. The mechanism: your quadriceps and glutes are the largest glucose sponge in your body. Activating them repeatedly clears more glucose than one sustained effort. The 30 min walk isn't wrong, it's just not as effective.

First, fuck off. Ok, now we’re locked in, I sincerely wish you all the best. The world is brutal. Uncaring, wanting its own at your expense and indifferent to your losses. Leaving no safe haven for reprieve and rejuvenation. Yet the want to interdigitate and be fiercely loyal to each other persists beneath the wreckage. It’s how we are built and what we are built for. Society has strip-mined our togetherness by chopping up our bonds with endless insult. We do best with shared purpose and a common enemy. We are the stewards of intelligent life. Our moral duty is to tend its continuation. Not as martyrs, but as stalwarts. Our enemy is that which makes you smaller. Count me as your ally.

Make sure you take some time to enjoy the weekend. Important for your mind and will help you be productive next week.

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into oil before a big run. I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later... In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did. In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009. In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok. In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not. In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows. In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID. In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history. Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked. During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund. In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it. IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok. July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023. 2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken. 2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious. 2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120. I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone. I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

Fed Chair Powell answering questions today said he is not paying attention to what the $USD or #Gold are doing. Amazing. The $USD says "Federal Reserve Note" right on it, #Gold is a monetary metal. So what is his job anyway? #SupremeJerkOff

Figure’s lending business is seasonal. We tend to do less loans in Q4 than Q3, in particular in the December. For example, in 2024 our ecosystem originated about $1.4B in loans in Q3 and $1.2B in Q4. That’s why the numbers in this release matter. In 2025, we did $2.46B in Q3 and $2.7B in Q4, including keeping December flat to November. This is the first time Figure has done that. And it’s over 130% year over year growth. Not only did we beat everyones expectations on Q4 loan production, we pushed $YLDS to over $330M and Democratized Prime - our DeFi platform - to over $200M, up 10-15X on the quarter. And we’re just getting started. investors.figure.com/news-releases/…

I did not have a glow up just by taking Chinese peptides. I stopped smoking I stopped drinking I do red light therapy for 12 minutes every day I started Olympic Weightlifting 4 times a week I drain my lymphatic system every morning I sauna and sweat ruthlessly I stretch every night I became a strict jihadist against occasional seed oils and processed foods I drink a liter of coconut oil every day I take magnesium glycine l-theanine and taurine and colostrom and whatever other esoteric supplements my Landlord feeds me I don't even ask what they are anymore I eat hella fruit I track my menstrual cycles and align my life with them I bought an organic cotton mattress and sheets and wool pillow I do scalp massages with a gua sha and boar bristle hair brush every night before bed I got a $400 haircut I replaced all bras and underwear and most of my wardrobe with natural fibers I go to the hot springs frequently I remove all blue light from my phone screen before bed I healed my relationship with internet addiction I opened my heart to intimacy and love and friendship I opened my heart to my family I found purpose in becoming a writer I cultivated deep and meaningful friendships in the city I live in I take 10,000 step walks every day that I can I always make sure to get sun on my face I stopped wearing deodorant 2 years ago I became less selfish and more giving I pray every morning to God thanking him for everything He's given me before I open my eyes and I listen to Neville Goddard audio every night before bed. It's not just the Chinese Peptides

INTROVERTS ARE RECHARGED BY: 1. Silence. 2. A deep, 1:1 conversation. 3. A clean desk. 4. Long walks in nature 5. Sleep

Nice. As I wrote in Skin in the Game, the only people annoyed by inequality are the no-skin-in-the-game bureaucrats and professors who envy the class above them. The rest of us worry about mobility.

nature @Nature

10 months ago

A meta-analysis of 168 studies covering more than 11 million people found no reliable link between economic inequality and well-being or mental health. go.nature.com/49h47R4

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