J @FintwitAlt

securities, commodities, derivatives, oh my! Joined July 2021

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@hassankhan Would you favor standing up a different agency, disbursing the money through another existing agency, or just not spending federal money on this type of thing at all?

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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

5 years ago

Incredible. One of the most crucial links in the supply chain, has been for years, built on the premise that some workers would provide labor for free. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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@MuzzMuzzington I think you are right, but could also be construed as anticipating management will not allocate excess earnings in a way that actually benefits shareholders. And it's easy for bears to say it was one on the way up and the other on the way down.

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@joeriwestland So @LumberTrading likes to point out that backwardation is bullish at least for commodities bc nobody is willing to pay to hold supply back. Market is literally saying “give me everything you got right now, I don’t care about the price.” Is this not likely to be similar?

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@LumberTrading Investor event next week will include public Q&A. If they don’t make an announcement before then, very likely to get asked about it.

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

Anybody else think it’s remarkable that this employment recession is tracking right along the trajectory of many previous ones plus that massive spike that was basically voluntary?

Bill McBride @calculatedrisk

5 years ago

August Employment Report: 235 Thousand Jobs, 5.2% Unemployment Rate calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/august…

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@mintzmyer Oof algos maybe picked that up too…breaking out now

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@mintzmyer If we’re going ex div then $ZIM just hit as well. 47.9

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@2x4caster I’m trying to tie this prediction to some kind of law of gravity for commodities where at least somebody has to be making no money at market equilibrium. So is the idea that demand will be enough to support even high cost mills with breakevens at or above 450?

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

wtaf?!

J Mintzmyer @mintzmyer

5 years ago

Goldman Sachs analysts expect $ZIM EPS of $11.23 in FY21 via a recent note in which a $26.50 target is quoted?! $GS previously expected $3.90 in Q2 and $1.61 in Q3. $ZIM did $12.56 EPS in 1H alone and I expect $30+ in 2021. This is who is on the other side of this trade!?🤷‍♂️🤣

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@TraderNewsFeed Can’t agree more. Total dice roll at this point even with that buyback.

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@2x4caster @SunshineRulez @RickPalaciosJr You joke but check those aluminum and steel futures!

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@RickPalaciosJr Any idea what proportion of DIY represented here requires wood or other products whose prices went to Mars this summer? Lots of demand destruction just in those prices and (for lumber) consistent commentary that wholesale prices were on the way down.

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@TheStalwart @calculatedrisk x.com/calculatedrisk…

Bill McBride @calculatedrisk

5 years ago

July Employment Report: 943 Thousand Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/july-e…

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@TheStalwart Looking at @calculatedrisk’s charts for post WWII recession jobs number shows we’re tracking several prior recessions except for that insane initial V shape, where the V stands for voluntary IMO.

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@mwaugh @AliWolfEcon I mean the only time case-shiller has been down over a 24 month span in the last several decades was the Great Recession. So yeah I do hope prices are up but would still prefer to see a gentler slope! Flat would be ok too as long as it’s shallow dip followed by stable recovery.

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Tim Duy @TimDuy

5 years ago

No. This is a monthly chart of saving, the flow. The net acculumating of saving is savings, the stock. "This distinction is often misunderstood, and even professional economists and investment professionals will often refer to "saving" as "savings”.” - Wikipedia

zerohedge @zerohedge

5 years ago

Contrary to what you may have heard elsewhere, there is no longer $5 trillion in excess savings; or even $2.5 trillion... In fact there is almost no excess savings left as consumers have spent most of it. zerohedge.com/markets/us-con…

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J @FintwitAlt

5 years ago

@2x4caster I still don’t understand the story on big box retailers. I keep hearing that mills own that inventory right up until it’s sold. So why have prices stayed high for so long? Maybe price from mills is agreed upon in advance but retailers just don’t pay for unsold inventory?