Adam Posen @AdamPosen
President, @PIIE. Globalist. Former central banker. Political economy with a policy purpose. Now also on bluer skies adamposen @ .social piie.com Washington, DC Joined March 2013-
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This is the CPI level for Japan. Three guesses when Japan hiked its consumption tax during this period. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1lAv8
This is the CPI level for Japan. Three guesses when Japan hiked its consumption tax during this period. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1lAv8 https://t.co/v3LSsVPbvd
I don't know of a single economist that would deny raising a consumption tax, whether a state sales tax or a national tariff, would cause prices to increase. If Oren can find such an economist, please identify them
I don't know of a single economist that would deny raising a consumption tax, whether a state sales tax or a national tariff, would cause prices to increase. If Oren can find such an economist, please identify them
Trump doubles down on a ~$1,500 tax increase for a typical family and opens the door to making the tax increase larger. americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps…
Trump doubles down on a ~$1,500 tax increase for a typical family and opens the door to making the tax increase larger. americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps…
Migrant wages in the UK: from parity (2014) to a small (3%) wage *premium* (2023). Despite (or because of?) the very large rise in non-EU migration post-pandemic.
Nice to see our paper on the impact of voluntary bank net-zero commitments covered by @eshelouise in the @nytimes today. The paper is joint work with @parisastry and @DavisoteMarques. 1/
Normal people "A big tariff increase will increase the cost of the tariffed goods." Twitter geniuses: "BUT BUT BUT THAT'S NOT INFLATION." Related: libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/05/new-ch…
Nice @SamuelMarcLowe piece on de minimis tariff rules. Bottom line (using @ericadyork @CatoInstitute flowchart): "unless the proposal changes quite a lot over the next year, online shopping in Europe (and maybe the US) looks set to become more expensive." ft.com/content/e8d77d…
This is why it's good to give examples. No business, organization, or college can adopt, as a general policy, the principle that its basic functions can always be indefinitely suspended in the event that there's a moral crisis worth protesting. x.com/Y4N6gang/statu…
This is why it's good to give examples. No business, organization, or college can adopt, as a general policy, the principle that its basic functions can always be indefinitely suspended in the event that there's a moral crisis worth protesting. x.com/Y4N6gang/statu…
Trump tells Time his tariffs on all imports could be higher than 10%: "More than 10%, yeah. I call it a ring around the country." time.com/6972022/donald…
Notable: Trump recommits to a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US, and suggests it may be higher than that. He argues its not inflationary. But most mainstream economists say tariffs amount to a tax on consumers who end up paying higher prices time.com/6972022/donald…
The disjunction between economic fears and reality is astonishing. Have we just stopped talking about reality altogether?
While some economists are concerned about stagflation, the real worry is that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, given strong consumer spending and inadequately restrictive monetary policy. My @ProSyn column. prosyn.org/PT3crAD
Relatedly: The research people learn of early in grad school is almost exclusively from the top 1% in quality. Partly why second-year Ph.D. students are a brutal audience—they are comparing the random paper they are seeing to the top 50 ever.
denkort-deportationen.de/amichai-gedich… At Würzburg station, there is a memorial to deported Jews. The memorial includes this case with an excerpt from Amichai’s poem in memory of his disabled friend Ruth Hanover, murdered in the Holocaust. Neither the USA nor Britain offered her a new home.
Retailers say they'll have to put up the price of food that's imported from the EU because of new post-Brexit border checks which come into force today. The “fresh produce consortium' estimate the additional red tape will cost the industry £200 million - and that'll mean higher…
I wrote last month about an analysis from Dem economists (@Brendan_Duke was one of them) that found a ten percent universal tariff would increase prices by $1500 annually on most American families semafor.com/article/03/27/…
See summary of results in recent paper "De-Dollarization? Not So Fast" with @felix_gerding which on top of central bank FX reserves also includes tracking dollar use in FX trading volume by currency, global bond currency denomination, and trade invoicing sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Chinese renminbi continues its decline in its share of central bank FX reserves since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine falling to 2.29% as of 2023Q4. JPY, CAD, and AUD continue to see their shares rise.
TRANSCRIPT: Full text of today's chat with @hitsamty about the rarified world of ultra-expensive real estate, and the new billionaire feudalism, where the normal cycles in markets don't seem to apply. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
ꜱᴜᴘʀᴇᴍᴇ ᴄᴏᴜʀᴛ ᴏʀᴅᴇʀꜱ ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡ ᴏꜰ ᴋɪɴɢ ɢᴇᴏʀɢᴇ ɪɪɪ'ꜱ ꜱᴜᴘᴘᴏꜱᴇᴅ "ɪɴᴊᴜʀɪᴇꜱ ᴀɴᴅ ᴜꜱᴜʀᴘᴀᴛɪᴏɴꜱ" ɪɴ ᴅᴇᴄʟᴀʀᴀᴛɪᴏɴ ᴏꜰ ɪɴᴅᴇᴘᴇɴᴅᴇɴᴄᴇ 𝘈𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘰 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 "𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘍𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘛𝘺𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴"
Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1
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space laser @psyreigna
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157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingwork
Peterson Institute @PIIE
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26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
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Isabel Schnabel 🇪�.. @Isabel_Schnabel
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3K Followers 768 Following Global China Postdoctoral Fellow @Uva_EAC. PhD @DukePoliSci. Previously @CsccPenn. Chinese bureaucracy, authoritarian politics, and political economy.This is the CPI level for Japan. Three guesses when Japan hiked its consumption tax during this period. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1lAv8
I don't know of a single economist that would deny raising a consumption tax, whether a state sales tax or a national tariff, would cause prices to increase. If Oren can find such an economist, please identify them
I’ve actually been curious about this. 70s talk TV clips always seem surprisingly high brow (or upper middle brow). Came across some Jerry Garcia clip, where the host just really let him go on about making music. Why was the culture so amenable to that at the time?
Trump doubles down on a ~$1,500 tax increase for a typical family and opens the door to making the tax increase larger. americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps…
Notable: Trump recommits to a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US, and suggests it may be higher than that. He argues its not inflationary. But most mainstream economists say tariffs amount to a tax on consumers who end up paying higher prices time.com/6972022/donald…
"The emerging powers don't want to be vassals of China any more than they want to be vassals of America," @CChivvis and @beatrix__gb write in @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/30/mid…
NB this is very rough, back-of-envelope stuff; there's lots going on here and it's still early days. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that this data really doesn't support some of the wild claims being made about low-paid migration, student/dependent visas, etc.
In our May/June issue, find Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine on the convergence of America’s adversaries, Evan Medeiros on the dangers of assuming that Chinese power is in decline, and much more. Start reading here: trib.al/v3aXtvr
Hi, this exact version from a Linkedin post I did in Feb2024 (🔗linkedin.com/posts/richard-…), but the real research by @ChadBown @PIIE @AdamPosen (🔗Bown (2022) lnkd.in/e_KQ4fVi)
@BaldwinRE Yes! Thank you. That's a great chart. Where's it from?
Yes, and the research you see in grad school is also the "finished product." It's top 1% in quality, and at the end of the production process. It makes grad students a brutal audience, but it also makes you feel helpless because you have an improper benchmark for your own work.
@ben_golub you're telling me not every album in the 70s was Dark Side of the Moon
Relatedly: The research people learn of early in grad school is almost exclusively from the top 1% in quality. Partly why second-year Ph.D. students are a brutal audience—they are comparing the random paper they are seeing to the top 50 ever.
just occurred to me impostor syndrome might also be a form of network effect: on average, the peers we interact with are more successful than us, because more successful scientists have more exposure
I wrote last month about an analysis from Dem economists (@Brendan_Duke was one of them) that found a ten percent universal tariff would increase prices by $1500 annually on most American families semafor.com/article/03/27/…
About to go to a conference at the Banque de France...hope there are no hard feelings
TRANSCRIPT: Full text of today's chat with @hitsamty about the rarified world of ultra-expensive real estate, and the new billionaire feudalism, where the normal cycles in markets don't seem to apply. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Rare privilege to see a restored 1949 Bill Phillips Moniac machine in action - only 2 working versions in the world
The essay—in many ways a condensed and updated version of @CatoInstitute's 2018 policy analysis "The Jones Act: A Burden America Can No Longer Bear"—is now online: milkenreview.org/articles/prote… Hope everyone can give it a read.
Last year @MilkenReview invited me to write a 4,000-word essay about the Jones Act. Pleased to announce it has now been published as part of the Q2 2024 issue. Will post a link when it goes online.
Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence academic.oup.com/wbro/article-a…
How the US became a net exporter of manufactured goods in the 1890s . . . A mesmerizingly beautiful graphic from @LDJEconomics that illustrates the point of the paper: jstor.org/stable/3211586
Trying to write something about @D_A_Irwin piece " “Explaining America's Surge in Manufactured Exports, 1880-1913," the central role played by the Mesabi Range, and the creation of US Steel. I just keep staring at this:
@AdamPosen The big revelation to me was the Defense Production Act, which apparently allows the federal government to run an autarkic command economy on a whim.
Chinese underconsumption is not due to low share of labor compensation (US 60%, CN 59%—FRED), @M_C_Klein. Rather it is due to extremely high HH savings rate (US 3%—FRED, China 34%— mckinsey.com/cn/our-insight…). The reason appears largely to be an anthropological response to the…
1/3 The problem isn't Chinese "overcapacity", @M_C_Klein argues in his latest piece for The Overshoot, but rather Chinese underconsumption, which is itself largely a consequence of the low share Chinese workers retain of what they produce. theovershoot.co/p/chinese-over…
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