The real shock this week is a 50bps Fed cut.
If Powell pulls that trigger, USD dumps, Gold rips, equities surge, yields collapse.
If it’s only 25bps, then markets need weak growth, softer inflation & worsening jobs outlook in the dot plot.
Without that, traders will fade the…
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Simply:
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Markets have fully priced 3 Fed cuts into year-end, some even bet on a 50bp in September.
Stocks have largely benefited from buying on anticipation.
There is a risk, when the cut happens, there’s no fresh buyer fuel left.
Price drops back = mean reversion.
History lesson:…
Dollar weakness is NOT just about near-term Fed cuts.
Markets are still underpricing the real story, political pressure eroding Fed independence, long-term inflation risks, reserve-currency trust fading, and global portfolios rebalancing out of USD.
This is structural, not…
This chart is a masterclass in history…
Every time gold goes parabolic, it’s because:
**A president gets desperate (Nixon)
**Trust collapses (Watergate/2025)
**Currencies fail (1970s/now)
We’re speedrunning the entire 1970s playbook in one year.
Key Events This Week:
1. 12-Month BLS Data Revision - Tuesday
2. August PPI Inflation data - Wednesday
3. OPEC Monthly Report - Thursday
4. August CPI Inflation data - Thursday
5. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
6. MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday
The last…
A key recession signal is flashing red:
US construction spending fell -2.8% YoY in July, one of the biggest drops since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This also marks the 6th consecutive monthly decline.
Month-over-month, construction spending has declined in 10 out of the last…
As economic houses go, the US is now a tear down.
There’s a hole in the roof of this house and we’re polishing the furniture.
For 6 years they have been saying Build Back Better and Make America Great Again.
Even assuming they did so with the best intentions- it is not…
I read Ruchir Sharma’s new book “What Went Wrong With Capitalism?” earlier this week
Ruchir spent 25 years at Morgan Stanley & headed up their Emerging Markets investments ($20bn+ in AUM across funds)
He’s also a great writer on macroeconomics & history; there are 3 great…
Bonds LIKE it.. therefore Powell has zero vigilante pushback thus far on him cutting 50bps.
Plus: revision gives first negative payroll back in June via @zerohedge
BREAKING: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is experiencing "technical difficulties" just 30 minutes before the highly anticipated August jobs report.
Gold’s price history is a timeline of broken trust.
• 1933 saw the end of the Gold Standard.
• 1971 marked the collapse of Bretton Woods.
• 2008 brought the global financial crisis.
• 2022 added the shock of war in Europe.
Each upheaval left a higher mark on the chart.
The…
Gold’s price history is a timeline of broken trust.
• 1933 saw the end of the Gold Standard.
• 1971 marked the collapse of Bretton Woods.
• 2008 brought the global financial crisis.
• 2022 added the shock of war in Europe.
Each upheaval left a higher mark on the chart.
The… https://t.co/io76jRcsZM
Key Events This Week:
1. July New Home Sales data - Monday
2. August Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday
3. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings - Wednesday
4. US Q2 2025 GDP data - Thursday
5. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
6. July PCE Inflation data - Friday
A big week…
Everyone is so focused on calling other traders out on this platform.
It’s a waste of time and energy tbh.
Just focus on yourself and your own trading.
I get that you want to try and “clean up” the space… but for every fake trader you try and cancel, there’s two more that…
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