Hightower Workforce Initiatives @HightowerAndy
Plan. Analyze. Align. Improve. What’s coming next? How you best leverage partnerships? How do we improve more lives? Go #Nats! #BBN 1 Corinthians 12:4-6 WorkforceInitiatives.com Joined February 2020-
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Pazzo’s was so good
Pazzo’s was so good
So, uhh, what's going on in NYC? nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyr…
The CPS can give us employment for grads 22–27 in computer *occupations.* Over the last 5 years, recent grad employment in computer occupations has grown 4x faster than overall recent grad employment. Same ratio as the 5 years pre-covid. 10/
EPOP tells a very different story. In 2023, the share of recent CS and Info Sci grads with jobs is down from 2022, but *higher than the entire 2010s* and still near record-highs. The very same data that suggests unemployment is high actually suggests a tight labor market. 8/
Tariffs, especially when applied bluntly and recklessly, are liable to undermine domestic manufacturing activity Latest revisions show a much bigger effect on jobs from all of the Liberation Day Theatrics. Own goal
Why is healthcare so resilient? It’s what we’re still consuming? Retirees from last 5 years keeping it expanding? All GLP-1s?
Why is healthcare so resilient? It’s what we’re still consuming? Retirees from last 5 years keeping it expanding? All GLP-1s?
JUST IN: A weak jobs report. The US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July. That’s way below expectations. May and June revised down by -258,000 (!) **75% of the July job gains came from healthcare** The unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.2% (from 4.1% in June) Wages grew…
Foreign-born labor force has contracted by 1.653 million people over the past 4 months ... outside of COVID, it's the largest decline we've ever seen
Sorry, the prime age employment rate has declined 0.5ppt over the last year. This is not good and is a reminder that unemployment being low is not necessarily a fair representation of what's going on in the jobs market.
Smaller contraction in the labor force (orange) in July, but a decline in employment (blue)
The fastest growing sectors in 2025 are largely the same as in 2024. Manufacturing and tech are struggling this year -- but they were also struggling last year. The one big shift between 2024 and 2025 is the decline in federal government jobs.
This labor market is in trouble. Healthcare are social assistance are pretty much the only sectors hiring. This is NOT healthy. **Just +73,000 job gains in July** Healthcare +55,000 Social assistance +18,000 Retail +16,000 Finance +15,000 Hospitality +5,000 State gov't +5,000…
I've been saying to look at the unemployment rate rather than payrolls, since it's uncertain where the breakeven for payrolls is right now. A 4.2% unemployment rate is still low. But the unemployment rate is up +0.25pp over the last 6M, driven by -0.53pp to EPOP & -0.40pp to LFPR
While we're waiting for the effect of tariffs, the effect of immigration policy has been clear. Immigrant-dependent industries have grown more slowly than other industries since border encounters dropped in mid-2024, and have been basically flat in 2025.
massive "pull-forward" of retirement has normalized we had millions in above-trend retirees during the first two-years of the pandemic that labor supply-shock contributed to the 'labor shortage', driving wages and inflation way up now we have the expected # of retirees, which…
A couple of issues here: - There isn't 34 million able bodied people who aren't working on Medicaid (I suspect the confusion is with 38 m *adults*). - There are ~14 million able bodied adults on Medicaid. - Only ~4 m of those able bodied adults are not working.
A couple of issues here: - There isn't 34 million able bodied people who aren't working on Medicaid (I suspect the confusion is with 38 m *adults*). - There are ~14 million able bodied adults on Medicaid. - Only ~4 m of those able bodied adults are not working.
One of buddies got on the roof and took this video 😭😭
These analyses are fascinating, but my main gripe wrt excitement this is generating is that land really is not the binding constraint when it comes to meeting our shelter deficit. It surely helps on the margin, but where does the labor come from to build these extra 1mm homes?
These analyses are fascinating, but my main gripe wrt excitement this is generating is that land really is not the binding constraint when it comes to meeting our shelter deficit. It surely helps on the margin, but where does the labor come from to build these extra 1mm homes?
Go Racers!
StatArbPro🇺🇸 @Qeeolaw0213979
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