Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

Joined January 2025

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

2 days ago

Black unemp rate up a sharp 1.5 ppts since May to 7.5%.

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PCE inflation at expectations, and goods, which had been rising, came in at -0.1%. But core is damn sticky at 2.9% y/y, core servs popped, consistent with recent price pressures in services. All told, FOMC prob still on track for Sept cut but ain't a slam dunk.

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

4 weeks ago

CPI comes in mostly at expectations for July, but tariff effects are in there. Here's yrly goods this year, and yrly core up 2.8, 2.9, 3.1 percent in past 3 months.

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

a month ago

Thanks, as always. It appears we're pretty entrenched in a low-fire, low-hire labor market. Agree? And, if so, can you think of similar periods? My prior is that this can still bounce either way and that policy certainty would help re investment, spending, hiring...

Guy Berger @EconBerger

a month ago

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

a month ago

There's info in this WSJ headline that isn't about India per se. It's the point that Trump's trade negotiations do not have an end date. They will persist as long as he's in power resulting in persistent uncertainty/chaos, even as we become more accustomed to twists/turns.

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

a month ago

How serious is this groundless firing of the BLS commissioner because you don't like this month's jobs report? It's an extremely dangerous turn of events, though familiar to authoritarians. If Congress/Courts allow Trump to create the official facts, we are truly in the dark.

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Jared Bernstein @econJaredB

a month ago

Thanks Bill et al. A terrible, unwarranted, totally groundless move. The Bureau, of course, has a deeply dedicated staff, but this firing is nothing less than a step down a path to a failed state.

William Beach @BeachWW453

a month ago

Thanks Bill et al. A terrible, unwarranted, totally groundless move. The Bureau, of course, has a deeply dedicated staff, but this firing is nothing less than a step down a path to a failed state.