John Dunigan @JADunigan2
Experienced Equities, Macro, and Derivatives strategist. Collaborates with colleagues to identify differentiated investment opportunities. Student of Markets. Joined June 2019-
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Black & Blue 04-26-24 John Dunigan, CFA 732-778-9194 @JADunigan2 Pricing power tap out hits margins? On average, #PCE and core PCE rose 0.17% MoM and 0.16% MoM, respectively, during H2 2023. On average, PCE and core PCE both rose 0.36% MoM and 0.36% MoM during Q1…
Black & Blue 04-24-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) US growth – slowdown skinny US Gross Output (#GO) – measures spending at all stages of production – grew more slowly than #GDP during H2 2023. #Skousensays that suggests a slowdown or recession. The Dallas Fed’s…
Black & Blue 04-23-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) US election – R sweep geopolitical dividend The #US general election is 28 weeks off. The table shows polls of the last 30 days and the equivalent polls in 2020. There has been a net 7-point swing from #JRB to #DJT…
Black & Blue 04-22-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Restrictive for longer fade The #Fed is out of the picture this week. The #FOMC blackout period runs through May 2nd. The March #PCE data is well handicapped, and unlikely to move the needle on expected Fed policy.…
Black & Blue 04-19-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Expect the extreme You should expect the unexpected in this business, expect the extreme … the unexpected and the impossible happen every now and then. – Richard #Dennis in Market #Wizards Israel v Iran – #Israel’s…
Black & Blue 04-18-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Price action drives news – Wobbling US stocks could push volatility-linked funds to ramp up selling + Pension funds are pulling $325 billion from stocks Beige Book – bad news is good news for risk? The current…
Black & Blue 04-17-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Industrials – earnings calls may buoy risk Fed Funds futures price less than 5 bp of a June rate cut (FFN4) and expect 41 bp of rate cuts this year (FFF5). Yesterday, #Powell appeared to lessen the chance the Fed might…
Black & Blue 04-16-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) Israel-Iran – tempered reactions ahead? #Israel and its allies were successful in knocking out most of the missile-drone barage that #Iran unleashed last weekend. Iran has been shown to be ineffective at overt…
Black & Blue 04-12-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Earnings – weak outlooks would compound uncertainty Markets can handicap several risk factors at a time. At a point, their number and/or complexity will exceed the market’s ability to discount them. At that point,…
Black & Blue 04-11-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) Fed – higher June FOMC YE ’24 F.F. dots The March #FOMC #Minutes noted ”recent data had not increased their (participants) confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%.” Regarding the risk of easing…
Black & Blue 04-10-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Persistent inflation – a risk to basic conditions? During H2 2023, the MoM change in #CPI and core CPI averaged 0.26% and 0.27%, respectively. During Q1 2024, the MoM change in CPI and core CPI averaged 0.38% and…
Black & Blue 04-08-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) CPI – sticky inflation? #Fed Chair #Powell this year – unexpected labor market weakness may speed rate cuts while sticky/high inflation may slow rate cuts. The March Employment Report indicated the labor market…
Black & Blue 04-05-24 PM John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) Inflation to test markets’ calm and risk positioning? Q1 2024 had solid #job and #wage #growth. #Powell’s policy rate guidance is labor market weakness might mean sooner cuts while sticky inflation might mean later…
Black & Blue 04-05-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Tom Morgan (Sabrient Capital) 5 minute Sohn presentation on curiosity NFP/CPI and markets Street economists expect a June #FOMC rate cut. July 2024 #Fed #Funds future (FFN4) price 77% of a June cut. The March FOMC YE…
Black & Blue 04-04-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) Election 2024 #WSJ swing state poll this week had some interesting right track vs wrong track observations. Those for the #US, #inflation, and #border are shown below. It is unclear how the administration can flip…
Black & Blue 04-03-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 Fed, NFP, and Risk Fed Chair Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook today at the Stanford Business School (12:10 PM). At the January FOMC Powell said that economic/labor market weakness might suggest sooner rate cut…
Black & Blue 04-01-24 John Dunigan, CFA @JADunigan2 1) Election – trend isn’t JRB’s friend The 2024 #US general #election is 31 weeks off. #FOX, #Economist/YouGov, and #Harvard-Harris have done polls in the last week. They also conducted polls at the same point in the…
ISM vs Dallas Fed difference of opinion. The Texas Manufacturing Survey last week relayed the following comments from the computer and electronic product sector – "While there are no disclosures we’re in a recession, ask any manufacturer on the globe and they will tell you we…
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🚨LIVE at the Republican Presidential Debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin! Great speaking to my friends from @Univsion on why President Trump will be our next Republican nominee! Hispanic Republicans are solidly behind Donald J. Trump!
Be cautious. Recession to come soon. A year ago I argued in this space that 4.5% FF was the limit and it appears it was. I do like MLP pipelines at 10%-plus yields. ET is a bargain at 10.3% tax deferred yield. We are still in a bear market though. 2/2
This is what true friendship looks like 💯
Volatility coming in today despite the sell-off, tells you puts being sold on way down (not added), contributing to the intraday pop. Below is SPX Jan 3800 put volatility
@KimDotcom Why do you think #BitcoinCash is better than any other crypto?
369 people follow me. I don't understand how this does not have 369 likes, including the Chinese Bots!
Why am I reading this now?
BREAKING: U.S. officials believe Saudi crown prince approved operation to 'capture or kill' journalist Jamal Khashoggi, says newly released document. apne.ws/vVBPMHJ
Wins my, “Funniest Tweet of the Week”prize
Your government spent $4.5 million to spray alcoholic rats with bobcat urine. No, this isn't some weird metaphor—they actually did that. As upset as I am about government waste, I'm more upset about wasted opportunity. I would've let them spray me with bobcat urine for half that.
YouTube is down. Why do I have a sudden fear that the only channels that are gonna come back are the pro-Biden channels 😳
@therecount @JoshNBCNews This cannot stand, he is literally endorsing ignoring the will of the people.
In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. Instead, the FBI & Justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities and hurting our people!
NEW: Very short statement from the FBI confirming that they are investigating incident Friday involving Biden bus.
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Trade deal is best chance to relieve valuation strain: S&P-500 forward 12m P/E is 17.0X / Nasdaq-100 forward 12m P/E is 20.3X. Near/above those levels were where markets topped out before trade talks derailed in May and August. VIX is 200 bp above lows prior to those disruptions?
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