Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

STL Joined April 2022

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

8 months ago

@JRZ_THL @elonmusk Player Piano

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@Billbrowder just finished Red Notice. Thoroughly enjoyed it. It was my choice for a book club of gents. We then meet to discuss over a drink related in someway to the book. Would love to ask you 2-3 questions if you’re open to it?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@brandonjcarl So selling calls as opposed to long puts or outright short? Puts too expensive with IV?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@SMalikjo @KrishnaMemani QQQ

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle Will do!

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle Thank you! And lastly if I understand your reply mentioning CS, the change in real 10 yr doesn’t matter to discount equities as an ⬆️ would coincide with an increase in NGDP which would flow through to corporate profits, so CS are the real adjustment to discount to be mindful of?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle So, if Im understanding, US 10 yr risk free and US 10 yr treasury are two separate given current state of the FED. Any move up in the 10 yr treasury to converge to the real 10 year risk free will not affect equities as the real 10 year risk free is already priced to discount?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle And if not, is it because: 1. Discount rates don’t matter? 2. The real 10 year yield as you’ve covered is the actual discount rate and is already priced in and the 10 year treasury will eventually catch up? 3. Something else

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle George, appreciate all your work. You’ve been all over the continued economic strength and market move. Quick question, if the 10 year does reprice to 5%+ (or 6% as you’ve said), is this discount rate adjustment not a headwind to equities?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@MacroNBuns @BobEUnlimited And quickly gave it back off the ISM print while equities still rolling over.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@EconstratPB @adorkssssss If it compresses to historic norms of 150-200bps you’re still talking high 5s low 6s range. Still a huge spread there with the majority of existing mortgages.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle What data are you watching to signal to you that we’ve begun the “Minsky Moment” of this cycle George?

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@AravSrinivas Still wrong on questions regarding recent data too much for my liking. Asked it what the private ADP payroll report was today, and it cited articles from May for its answer, whereas Google provides me the real right articles providing the correct figures.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@BickerinBrattle @Things2Know123 You’ve been all over the move George. Kudos.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@TripleDTrader Hard to fathom this guy 10X his $30M to $300M net of taxes on other trades the last 3 years. Something still seems off

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@KobeissiLetter More interested in how he went from $34M to $210M net of taxes..hard to believe that was from swing trading GME the last 3 years.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@inthebagBrandon @_Cheffa @unusual_whales Could be it 😂 If it’s really all his money, which I still find hard to believe he pulled of a 15x net of taxes since his last post, he should end up with at least 9 figures when it’s all said and done. And what’s the difference between 200M and 1bil. It’s all FU$ at that point.

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Kyle @KyleJacobsmeyer

2 years ago

@_Cheffa @inthebagBrandon @unusual_whales Right but then what, he knows the shares won’t hold their value long term. Billionaire on paper but collapses if he tries to realize any significant portion of that even if it’s over a long time window.