Martin Sullivan @M_SullivanTax
Chief Economist, Tax Analysts. Former Treasury, JCT staff. Grateful for bio by Steven Pearlstein (link below). washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog… Alexandria, VA Joined June 2013-
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Seems like there is wildly disproportionate emphasis on (and interest in) macroeconomic effects of monetary policy compared to the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy.
Will Pillar 2 raise a lot of revenue? Probably not in Singapore: "given the significant spending required to stay competitive, at this point, I do not expect the new moves to generate net revenue gains for Singapore on a sustained basis." -- 2024 Singapore Budget Statement
The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.4%, and the 3-month yield is a point above that. R>G as we speak...
The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.4%, and the 3-month yield is a point above that. R>G as we speak...
Big thanks to @MarcGoldwein and @BudgetHawks for hosting this event. The contrasting perspectives of @kpomerleau @KimClausing @danieldbunn and @BudgetBen are always worth listening to, and there was a recording for those not able to attend. c-span.org/video/?534549-…
Big thanks to @MarcGoldwein and @BudgetHawks for hosting this event. The contrasting perspectives of @kpomerleau @KimClausing @danieldbunn and @BudgetBen are always worth listening to, and there was a recording for those not able to attend. c-span.org/video/?534549-…
Question: Using Fed to control (stimulate) growth results in interest-sensitive sectors (e.g. housing) bearing the brunt (benefit). Why do they deserve this? Why not use fiscal policy which can be targeted to achieve other policy goals? wsj.com/economy/housin… via @WSJ
I don't know why @federalreserve is in such a hurry to be talking about moving towards the accelerator. We've got unemployment, if anything, below what they think is full capacity. We've got inflation, even in their forecast, for the next two years above target. We've got GDP…
Bermuda citizen wonders why Bermuda is adopting a corporation tax (in response to Pillar 2): "if Cayman is not going to do it why are we still even thinking of doing it?" royalgazette.com/politics/news/…
Escalating fear over China not only implies that countries are increasingly prepared to forego the efficiency gains brought on by trade, but also that the global effort toward increased pandemic preparedness may be at risk from geopolitical tensions. piie.com/blogs/realtime…
Even if TCJA not extended, budget balance in 10 years I believe based on my (perhaps inaccurate) recollections of recent report is .... impossible. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you. taxnotes.com/tax-notes-toda…
A very considerable breakthrough for the cause of deficit rediction, no? GOP budget chair: New revenue should be on the table to reduce the deficit semafor.com/article/02/26/…
It’s becoming increasingly evident that the most influential legislative development in federal income tax policy in the past 30 years was Chairman Camp’s bill. It showed the limits of what was possible in a deficit neutral manner. Not all Bills pass, but some have real impact.
The poor economics and gimmicky budgeting in the bipartisan tax deal are hard to deny. From CRFB: "Because of timing issues related to business provisions, the official score significantly understates the plan’s costs. The plan also irresponsibly offers retroactive windfalls."
The poor economics and gimmcky budgeting of this bipartisan deal are hard to deny. taxfoundation.org/blog/bipartisa…
Excellent recent study of TCJA from Kennedy et al finds: "corporate income tax cuts cause economically and statistically significant increases in firms’ sales, profits, payouts to shareholders, employment, and real investment in capital goods. sites.google.com/view/patrick-k…
Powell: “We don’t comment on fiscal policy." RIDICULOUS. Volcker unendingly told Congress to cut the deficit. Greenspan told Congress to cut the cap gains rate. How can you lead on inflation policy without comment on fiscal actions?? @greg_ip wsj.com/economy/centra… via @WSJ
10-year Treasury now at 4.5% Ouch! CBO baseline: 3.8% If TCJA extended and rates remain at this level deficit will be something like 8.7% of GDP in 2033 instead of current CBO forecast of 7.3% Your Quick Guide to Our Uncertain and Scary Fiscal Future taxnotes.com/tax-notes-toda…
In "olden" days supply side economics was all about capital formation. Given current formidable labor shortages, perhaps supply siders focus on labor supply. So yes, GTT, perhaps those industries should get relief-with caveat it's targeted to boost their labor supply not demand.
Richard Rubin @RichardRubinDC
39K Followers 719 Following I cover U.S. tax policy for the @WSJ. There is ALWAYS a tax angle. Retweets are not endorsements or tax advice.Matt Foreman @ForemanTaxLaw
14K Followers 148 Following Tax lawyer, sports fan, memorabilia (cards/bobbleheads) collector. Tweets are not legal advice; views are mine, not my employer's. He/himKelly Phillips Erb @taxgirl
62K Followers 6K Following I share #tax and #law stories for @Forbes. Lawyer, writer, proud mom. Happiest with #coffee ☕ and my kids. Free tax newsletter signup at the link below.Tax Notes @TaxNotes
34K Followers 3K Following Your #1 source for everything tax. News, commentary, analysis. Nonpartisan nonprofit. #LetsTalkTax & #TaxTwitter | Follow our journalists: https://t.co/1qgIlqOjrzLogan Graf @LoganGrafTax
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3K Followers 1K Following President and CEO @taxfoundation. Work hard. Work smart. Work together.Marc Goldwein @MarcGoldwein
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A packed house for today’s tax panel at #IMFMeetings
@George_A_Callas Trump’s likely policies—import tariffs, big budget deficits, less immigration, etc.—will likely cause the dollar to appreciate. Lighthizer understands trade policy, not macroeconomics.
Hmm, maybe we don’t need massive US subsidies to convince US companies to diversify out of China.
Apple’s shift of iPhone manufacturing to India is happening faster than many had expected. 2021: 1% made in India 2023: 7% 2024: 14% 2025 goal: 25%
@pramuji_handra @M_SullivanTax Will it make Singapore less attractive though?
I'm quoted in this very interesting story about just one of the many challenges of auditing complex partnerships: it's easy to create layers of shell owners to receive the K-1s, so the ultimate owner is invisible to IRS. icij.org/inside-icij/20…
ICYMI from @doug_sword + me today: House GOP taxwriters are complaining about Senate politics and gridlock thwarting action on a tax bill that found overwhelming support in their chamber, seeming to turn the tables after months of infighting in the House. taxnotes.com/tax-notes-toda…
The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.4%, and the 3-month yield is a point above that. R>G as we speak...
🧵𝐖𝐨𝐧𝐤-𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝🧵 With interest rates at a 16-year high and surging, it’s a good time to talk what 𝐑 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐮𝐬 𝐆 means for debt dynamics. In summary: ⦿ 𝐑<𝐆 improves debt sustainability ⦿ 𝐑<𝐆 doesn't guarantee sustainability ⦿ 𝐑>𝐆 now, so that's bad! 🧵
Big thanks to @MarcGoldwein and @BudgetHawks for hosting this event. The contrasting perspectives of @kpomerleau @KimClausing @danieldbunn and @BudgetBen are always worth listening to, and there was a recording for those not able to attend. c-span.org/video/?534549-…
Great discussion with four of the leading US federal income tax policy experts. Some pleasantly surprising areas of alignment. For those who weren’t there, check out the video link. Question for @KClausing below…1/
@M_SullivanTax again a great explainer. It seems odd that TCJA tax studies with access to confidential tax data rely so much on what I see as dicey comparables for USMNEs. The comparables used are S-corps, MNEs headquartered in other nations, etc. 1/3 taxnotes.com/lr/resolve/tax…
@goodmanl @M_SullivanTax As SOCA romantic, I'd model in detail - MTRs, FMTRs, FTC cross-crediting, etc. - top 500 U.S. C corps with a panel that reaches well before 2018 going as long as possible. Of course, that requires time, resources and other indulgences plus maybe reincarnation of Harry Grubert.
@M_SullivanTax @elwasson @SpeakerJohnson @CNBC “I support a national dialogue on federal taxing & spending … … so long as taxes and spending are off the table.” Someone dig out Rivlin/Domenici and slap a 2024 date on the title page. Ditto for Simpson-Bowles.
@johnkartch @M_SullivanTax @elwasson @SpeakerJohnson @CNBC The Biden WH immediately demagogued the RSC budget’s call for a slow rise in the Social Security retirement age from 67 to 70, about the most vanilla idea there is. Can you blame Republicans for pulling up the tent after that?
@M_SullivanTax @elwasson @SpeakerJohnson @CNBC It's like saying you want to lose weight but diet and exercise are off the table
🚨New Analysis🚨 The President's Budget saves $3.3 trillion. But ~all that revenue would be needed for the "middle class" tax extensions he has called for. crfb.org/blogs/tax-exte…
👇🏽@DonFSchneider knows. Good Tax Take👇🏽
Dialing up the corporate rate is the last thing Republicans should do. TCJA was 1.1tn cost on individual side and 300bn on biz side. Further sacrifices on corporate side not warranted to correct for the former. Will have a very specific proposal for this soon. Stay tuned…
@goodtaxtakes @DonFSchneider I tend to agree tho maybe for different reasons - there is a lot of $ in base broadening on both the individual and corporate side. (And I know it prob won’t happen but not renewing 199A would be nice)
@M_SullivanTax As usual, you are not wrong. It would be mathematically possible. But it would be impossible. Here what I found about year ago: taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/balanci…
Well folks, I'm starting a new chapter: Yesterday marked my final day at @TaxNotes -- 7 years as a reporter, 8 years total. Next week, I'll be starting a new job at the IRS on their public affairs team here in DC. I'm gonna miss this place and all the wonderful people here!
@M_SullivanTax Yes, striking that this plan aims for a consumption tax, which many conservatives favor but most congressional Rs have been unwilling to vote for.