Marcus Ong @Marcusjun94
Avid reader | Independent thinker Singapore Joined December 2013-
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Future generations will read history books about primitive societies in which the global supply of money was set at bi-weekly committee meetings.
Hard to say if this will be a one day wonder rally that collapses early next week, or the start of a larger rally. I guess the bottom line is to assume nothing in this market, except perhaps the general assumption that volatility will generally hold higher for a while...
New from The LT3000 Blog: Demystifying post-GFC economics; the problem with scarcity; interest rates; long political cycles; and the end of history Cheers, LT3000 lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/01/demyst…
Chart of The Day: Malaysian's salary raise has been overtaking the inflation ever since the election. Might be attributed to lower fuel price and GST exemption. Wonder why is everyone still ranting about inflation pressure. Hmm.. #Malaysia #inflation #salary #GST
CHART OF THE DAY: Malaysia unsold properties climbs above 200k in 4 years, and the unsold percentage (sum of unsold units/ sum of launched units) is prominently high in rural areas. Source : UPESM by NAPIC #Malaysia #UnsoldProperties #RealEstateinvesting #RealEstate
Asset Class ETF Returns Since 2008...
S&P 500 Total Return hits a new all-time high, up 25% from the December lows. $SPXTR
The only wealth that grows exponentially without risk is that of politicians. People spend their lives paying taxes on income, on consumption, on property, on everything... and when you manage to save something, they want to tax what little is left of it.
If you're interested in my template for understanding big debt crises, you can learn more about it and pre-order at principles.com/big-debt-crises.
The latest must-read book is "Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World" by Adam Tooze. Great critique on page 71 of The Economist.
This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts.
there is overwhelming optimism and complacency based on Vix and CBOE put to call ratio..typical ancillary signs that accompany market's top, aligning with EW wave counts which always contradicts the consensus... All indices are set up for a significant selloff here.
Larry Kudlow labels this the 'prosperity era'. Rather, it is the mother of all credit expansions. The debt bubble this cycle makes a mockery of 2003-07. We know how these end. Only pigs wait for the peak.
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IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES REMAIN UNHARMED - STATE TV
THERE WAS PRE-NOTIFICATION TO THE UNITED STATES FROM THE ISRAELIS - SOURCE FAMILIAR
@IliaBouchouev Disagree. Why would risk grow with time? Time averages out risk, and risk perception is high now. Aggregate geopolitical risk typically overrated because producers need revenue. 💰💰 Only real disruptions were Arab Embargo, Iran-Iraq War, and Kuwait invasion in 50 years.
Bunker Spreads VLSFO TCE spread C3 v C5: There is a discount of $12,532 on C3 over C5 HSFO TCE spread C3 v C5: There is a discount of $11,968 on C3 over C5 #drybulk
1. Will Saudi Cut? Prices rallied late on Friday and through Monday with the increased expectation of either OPEC+ or just Saudi cutting. If cutting is about creating strong backwardation to stabilise prices, then I think they are flawed in their thinking.
4. Over the period of the drop in inventories, exports have not been much more than normal to justify the fall. So either Russia has suddenly seen a big increase in consumption or Russian refineries are beginning to struggle.
THE WEEK AHEAD ⚠️ A behemoth of a week incoming Monday 🇺🇲 15:00 NAHB Housing M Index(Sept) Tuesday 🇦🇺 02:30 Aus RBA Minutes 🇪🇺 10:00 Eurozone Inflation (Aug) 🇨🇦 13:30 CAN CPI (Aug) 🇺🇲 13:30 US Building Permits (Aug) 🇺🇲 13:30 US Housing Starts (Aug) Wednesday 🇩🇪 07:00…
The scale of the MBR solar park is incredible.
"Belly Up - The Collapse of the Penn Square Bank" is one of the best books about the failure of a small financial institution that set off a much larger chain-reaction - it is also extraordinarily funny: amazon.com/Belly-Up-Colla…
CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI: HOUSING IN CHINA IS FOR LIVING, NOT SPECULATION.
Zoltan out w/a new piece on oil and gold and Russia.
🇪🇸 SPAIN: 314g CO2/kWh 🔴 using 47% Gas, 26% Nuclear and 13% Hydro 🇮🇹 ITALY: 536g CO2/kWh 🔴 using 66% Gas, 10% Hydro and 8% Coal Provided by @ElectricityMaps, data is about live consumption as of 06/12/22 07:00 Berlin's time.
I suspect that OPEC may disappoint the market tomorrow. There will be a big headline cut but - Only Saudi and UAE (maybe Kuwait) will cut actual production - The rest including Russia will cut quotas closer to production levels. This could be a buy the rumour and sell the news.
The Kremlin warned the West on Monday that it would retaliate over a G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil. "There can only be retaliatory measures," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. #OOTT
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