PinPoint Macro Analytics @PinpointMacro
Unbiased Factual Information. Global Insights. Updated Automatically | Macro Decision Making in Financial Markets Joined September 2020-
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Speak to @PinpointMacro about independent bespoke macro research
U.S. GDP growth stronger than expected in Q4. The details show personal consumption growth slightly less than expected at 3.3%, and quarterly core PCE inflation rose to 4.9%. Inventories were a strong driver of growth. #GDP #economics #USD
The RBA's most-watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean measure, rose to 2.7% (YoY), above the mid-point of the RBA's 2% to 3% inflation target. Core inflation is no longer low. Headline CPI at 3.5%. Updates at PinPoint Macro Analytics. #economics #bonds #Currency
Australia's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dips back into contractionary territory. Falling from 54.9 in Dec to 45.3 in January. Concerns over Omicron and government restrictions drove the decline. Automatic updates at pinpointmacro.com #Economics #Markets #Currency
EUR/USD under some downward pressure as ECB minutes indicate lower for longer interest rates despite 5.0% Eurozone headline inflation. #foreignexchange #EURUSD #ECB #Macroeconomics #bonds
The Australian unemployment rate fell 0.4% to 4.2%, its lowest level since the 2008-09 commodity boom. The job vacancy data provided a good lead to the lower-than-expected unemployment rate, and suggests a further decline in the unemployment rate will occur. Automatic-updates.
The U.S. yield curve continues to edge higher as markets price tighter monetary conditions ahead of a Fed rate rise. Current market pricing is centering on March as the month the Fed will begin to raise the Fed funds rate. Automatic-updating charts. #bondmarket #Fed #USD
NZD/USD under some modest downward pressure in thin trade after NZIER business confidence fell to -28% in Q4 from -11% in Q3. Helpful automatic-updating charts at pinpointmacro.com #NZD #foreignexchange #macroeconomics
1st estimate of China's Q4 real GDP was stronger than expected at 4.0% (YoY). As can be seen in the automatic-updating charts at PinPoint Macro Analytics, China's economic expansion has well and truly passed the initial Covid slump. #macroeconomics #foreignexchange
Monday the S&P 500 declined 1.14%. First day of what is historically a quiet week in the market. It's worth reflecting on some weekly average movements. Since the year 2000, the weekly mean is +0.15%. A weekly one standard deviation decline is -2.4%. pinpointmacro.com
Will the PBoC's 2% lift in Banks' RRR to 9% for FX deposits discourage the growth in FX deposits, and ease some of the recent strength in CNY? The PBoC snugging the USD/CNY daily reference rate higher may also assist. Observe our auto-updating charts. #FX #China #macrobond
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance. Interest rate markets continue to price two 25bp rate rises over the next 12 months. Automatic-updating charts at pinpointmacro.com #interestrates #forex #macroeconomics #economics #macrobond
Details of Eurozone Q3 GDP show consumer spending the main driver of real GDP growth again in the quarter. Net Exports make a modest contribution. Automatic-Updating Charts at pinpointmacro.com #macroeconomics #forex #economics #bonds #macrobond
A decline in BTC has been accompanied by a decline in the growth rate of unique addresses. Automatic-updating charts at pinpointmacro.com #crypto #bitcoin #macrobond
Australia's Q3 real GDP growth was set to contract after a strong Q2. However, at -1.9% (QoQ), the Q3 contraction was less than consensus of -2.7% (QoQ). The decline in annual growth was also less, at 3.9% (YoY). Automatic updates at pinpointmacro.com #economics #macrobond
Germany's November annual CPI inflation lifted to 5.2%. Clearly the risks to the upcoming Eurozone November CPI inflation are also for higher inflation .... (Automatically-updating charts on pinpointmacro.com) #macroeconomics #bonds #forex #economics #macrobond
Since early 2020, Bitcoin has consistently endured a positive correlation to the S&P 500. The rolling one-year correlation is currently 0.25. It is helpful to know as the S&P 500 adjusts in response to potential government lockdown concerns. #cryptocurrency #equities #macrobond
The USD appears to be repeating its pattern of rising 12 to 18 months prior to the first lift in the Fed funds rate cycle. Notice how many standard deviations the USD rose before the Fed actually lifted rates. #macroeconomics #forex #currency #macrobond
Historically, changes in the direction of Australia's CPI inflation have provided the better lead indicator on Australia's 10 year bond yield. However more recently, changes in the direction of wage growth has provided a superior indicator of direction in the 10 year. #macrobond
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