Andy West @HedgeQuartersHQ
Investor. Founder HEDGEQUARTERS & Longlead Capital Partners. Former Deputy Head at Regal Funds. PhD Economics (Finance). Personal views. Not financial advice. HedgeQuarters.com Everywhere theres a market Joined July 2009-
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There’s a good chance April MoM Core #CPI increases to >0.4% (from March’s 0.36%) on a bounce in the OER component and slight uptick in commodities ex F and E following PPI Consensus will stick to 0.3% as it again hugs the lagging NowCast. Do with that what you will. The…
And yet they still can’t get a months inflation forecast even close… 😂 So who’s still listening to their rate cut forecasts?
A reminder from a year ago why the Fed inflation NowCast underestimates #CPI as it rises like it is doing right now… The big IBs all hug the NowCast and build their rate forecasts from that which tells you how unreliable they are. Expecting rate cuts is looking in the rear view…
A reminder from a year ago why the Fed inflation NowCast underestimates #CPI as it rises like it is doing right now… The big IBs all hug the NowCast and build their rate forecasts from that which tells you how unreliable they are. Expecting rate cuts is looking in the rear view…
The fact there wasn’t a single 0.4% Core inflation forecast across this group when you had a NowCast of 0.31% and months of evidence that the NowCast is downward biased right now due to methodology, makes any forecast of rate cuts by this same group totally unreliable
As profiled below, the implications of now 3 months of core #CPI at 0.4% MoM (with April also looking the same) are important for markets. Most importantly- remember that real Core #inflation is consistently running 0.1% higher than the Fed nowcast due to its methodology and…
As profiled below, the implications of now 3 months of core #CPI at 0.4% MoM (with April also looking the same) are important for markets. Most importantly- remember that real Core #inflation is consistently running 0.1% higher than the Fed nowcast due to its methodology and…
#Inflation scenarios: The Fed NowCast has under-cast MoM #CPI by 0.1% in each of the last 2 months reflecting its lagged moving average approach to some components that have been accelerating for 6+ months If we see the same pattern again, March Core CPI would come in at 0.41%…
No bet placed on this #CPI - just chiming in from the sidelines. But like last month it’s time for a reminder that for the last 2 months the actual #inflation print has been hotter than the Fed CPI nowcast which happens as inflation troughs and bounces over 6+months due to the…
Establishment vs. Household. Robust jobs growth or recessionary jobs growth. 🤔
As long as central bankers continue to say that they believe their current policy is restrictive enough to return inflation to target, risk markets will continue to rally as a reminder that policy is not restrictive and loose financial conditions are exacerbating inflation…
#Inflation watch: Ahead of Tuesdays CPI, it’s worth noting that the CPI Nowcast forecast error has flipped from positive to negative in January. This means that the Nowcast is more likely to underestimate inflation right now because most core components are based on rolling…
Powell, sticking to past script and ignoring recent inflation data in his comments, just gave the green light for even easier financial conditions in short term. Amazing Stocks, oil, Bitcoin, Ponzis should remain well bid for now. Particularly small caps with likely lagged catch…
Inflation expectations (UMich) going to rise again here (red line) following breakevens. That will force Fed speakers to start hawking and guess what follows that… Volatility $VIX $SPY $QQQ $TLT #stocks
Spurious Correlation Friday: When we’re looking for correlating patterns, quants have proved they need >10 years of data or risk extrapolating an indicator that doesn’t continue to correlate. Example below: for the first 5 years you might have thought Leo was happy to date…
The two speed consumer continues. This divergence in nominal spending on services vs goods is important in understanding the level of dispersion between stock performance in the current market... The extract below highlights the magnitude of dispersion in nominal spending. The…
That brief spurt of housing demand disappeared quickly as I’ve been saying since the start of the year You really need 200bps of lower mortgage rates to sustainably boost housing again. At the same time we’re seeing sequential activity indicators such as various retail measures…
That brief spurt of housing demand disappeared quickly as I’ve been saying since the start of the year You really need 200bps of lower mortgage rates to sustainably boost housing again. At the same time we’re seeing sequential activity indicators such as various retail measures… https://t.co/uahPc10DD4
Interesting parallel/PoV…
The Chicago Fed National Activity index fell into the negative in January indicating growth declined again after a brief Q4 acceleration The all important personal consumption component was the biggest swing factor as stretched consumers pull back after elevated Q4 spending…
#Inflation acceleration (MoM) right now is coming from BOTH cyclical and Acyclical sectors That’s interesting as it suggests a very broad inflation impulse across the economy. Transportation and wages are at the core of this, neither of which appear likely to cool in the short…
The eventual sign of the top in $NVDA share price will NOT be a quarterly revenue miss. It will be when the accustomed $2bn quarterly beat disappears. Consensus revenue estimates are now fairly meaningless because the buy side is ALL expecting and front running these beats.…
I’ve heard from multiple CEOs with large transaction portfolios connected to the trucking spot market about how abysmal February has been. One described it as the beginning of the end of the “great flush out” for small carriers. “January was a headfake” said another.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
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🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂�.. @AlessioUrban
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16K Followers 295 Following Engineer. Researcher. Stonk Enjoyer. Shit poster. I collect data on options and stuff and post it on X.
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The EPB Coincident Employment Index shows the labor market moving from hot, to cooling, to roughly flat. Tomorrow we get another update. 11/
Some people will find a lot of use for AI, but so far I'm struggling to find a practical use that actually saves time or adds capability (maybe that says more about me 😅) (also why does it remind me of crypto where the use case is actually narrow, specific, & way overstated)
wonder if this includes instances of companies saying "we can't figure out how to benefit from AI"
More stagflationary data out this morning with softer retail sales but pickup in inflationary pressures (import prices, prices paid in Empire/Phili fed moving higher) while labor market remains firm (claims not rising). Given the Fed's current reaction function, they will be…
@wabuffo @Econ_Parker @TheMacroMoat @WallWorry Andy has posted some very interesting analysis on the implications of YoY and base effects, FYI x.com/HedgeQuartersH…
This is NOT consistent with growth re-accelerating... While the reported Redbook Retail index is a YoY% change, I adjust it to proxy sequential change from the data. With new data up to Feb 10th, trend retail sales appear to have been declining again since mid January with…
Today's core CPI reading suggest that "immaculate disinflation" stopped this summer
David Rubinstein also expecting Fed cuts to start in March. Who else has been saying THIS since mid-Nov? 🤔🤨 😁 My bet this week: Fed announces cuts & Yellen Yahtzees (bonds over bills). Place Your Bets!! foxbusiness.com/video/63451827…
Following Texas Instruments' extremely poor guidance, semiconductor industry giant Intel forecasts huge Q1 miss (revenues guided to range of $12.2B-$13.2B vs. $14.2B expected) & EPS 62% lighter. INTC -7% after/hours. Western Digital also with poor guide, down 4% after/hours
@RobinBrooksIIF Maybe because US fiscal stimulus never stopped and is in fact still growing? A $2T deficit does wonders for nominal growth.
@RobinBrooksIIF $1 growth = $1.55 deficit = $2.5 new debt = unsustainable.
.@SteveMiran writes so clearly about the risks of the Fed abdicating the QT/QE monetary policy lever to Treasury. Their Jan 31 policy announcement will be hugely impactful for markets and remains highly uncertain. city-journal.org/article/the-fe…
Think it's tempting to write off these surveys as noisy - which they are. But directionally, it's hard to ignore the fact that they are not re-accelerating as many have expected. They seem to be turning down again.
Richmond Fed survey was the 3rd in a row to surprise to the downside, after Empire & Philly. Ex-pandemic it's the weakest since GFC. Historically the Employment index at -15 is synonymous with nonfarm at -200k. 😳
@HedgeQuartersHQ I went in short $NAIL, what a ludicrous run up. UK homebuilders already starting to go bankrupt, folks bidding up the US ones are bonkers.
Chris Waller has gotten this whole cycle more right than just about any macroeconomist, academic or private. The more I rewatch what he said a year ago and yesterday the more I feel convinced they won’t cut in Mar and will be very gradual about the cuts. Yes, if marginal/real…
$GEO to $20- BINGO. This is what shareholders were looking for . Yesterday, Homeland Security Sec Mayorkas addressed border needs in a press conference. Pay attention to the 7:20 mark where he emphasizes the need for more transportation funding, resources for detention beds, and…
A high number of expected rate cuts paradoxically reduces the probability that the Fed will cut deeply. This post notes that credit quality remains solid and balance sheets remain strong, so lower rates could easily rekindle growth and inflation. fedguy.com/reflexivity/
Shrubstack went long $KWEB and $FXI calls You see that tiny little candle at the bottom right ? That’s called Hope…
I'm Sad. My youngest (Youngest!!!) turned 19 yesterday. I don't have kids anymore I have young men as Sons. Warning to you fathers with young ones. One minute you are sleep deprived the next minute you are trying to figure out where did life go. Embrace the chaos
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