Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1
Recovering academic, Chief Analyst @EquisLabs, audiobook junkie, aspiring novelist. She/hers. All opinions are my own, especially the wrong ones! Joined November 2020-
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LATINO EDAY THREAD #1 - The Warm-Up - The first of a few threads prepping for tonight. Later: some data we’ve been holding back. Right now: let’s start with some scene-setting…
In advance of election night, I think it's useful to calibrate expectations to the fundamentals, not to polls or vibes. So, a good calibration: House: Dems lose ~40-45 seats Senate: Dems lose 1-3 seats Anything significantly less = Dem over-performance. Here's why.
Today @EquisResearch is releasing the 2nd part of a 2020 post-mortem, focused on WHY some Latino voters shifted to Trump & what it means for the current moment. The report is ~100 slides. A summary (and the full deck, for the brave) is at the link. link.medium.com/PStIWno5Ylb
Dems should not take the wrong lessons from tonight and fall into the trap of racing to the right. People want their politicians to deliver, they want results. Dem's have the oppty to do that with the BIF and reconciliation NOW - tax cuts, climate, jobs, immig. Don't mess up.
And let's not forget the structural stuff that also worked to Obama's advantage: 2008 - coming off 8 years of GOP control of the WH + a financial crisis right before the election 2012 - incumbency advantage for Obama + steady growth in real disposable income leading up to Nov
And let's not forget the structural stuff that also worked to Obama's advantage: 2008 - coming off 8 years of GOP control of the WH + a financial crisis right before the election 2012 - incumbency advantage for Obama + steady growth in real disposable income leading up to Nov
Support @avowtexas who has been in the #txleg day in and day out fighting back against the #TexasAbortionBan. Read their statement here and donate! avowtexas.org/2021/09/01/sb-…
Woke up with a pit in my stomach thinking of Rosie Jimenez and the folks we will lose bc of #SB8. Rosie was 27 y/o when she died from an unsafe abortion after the #HydeAmendment was passed in 1977. She was a mama to a 5 y/o kiddo, working to get her teaching credentials.
Woke up with a pit in my stomach thinking of Rosie Jimenez and the folks we will lose bc of #SB8. Rosie was 27 y/o when she died from an unsafe abortion after the #HydeAmendment was passed in 1977. She was a mama to a 5 y/o kiddo, working to get her teaching credentials.
In 1964, my father went to Mississippi to register voters as part of Freedom Summer. Though he made it home, others like Goodman, Cheney and Schwerner were murdered. Today, @NPR interviewed my father & me about how the fight for voting rights continues. npr.org/2021/07/14/101…
This new @apsrjournal article by me, @julie_wronski and @UptonOrwell includes an implication that we really only hint at in the conclusion and that I'd like to elaborate on here. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Identification strategy is the only legitimate use for cicadas that I will accept
Sure, coffee is great but have you tried starting your Monday morning with a debate over the relationship between correlation and causation?
Sure, coffee is great but have you tried starting your Monday morning with a debate over the relationship between correlation and causation?
In a new working paper, @ellliottt, @matteopins, @sergallet, and I examine the role of Fox News Channel on U.S. Elections. We show that Fox has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Good thing we got all those years of experience with counter-insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan. Should come in handy in DC today.
Good thing we got all those years of experience with counter-insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan. Should come in handy in DC today.
Since we are playing the "why did so many Xs vote for Trump??" game, I'd like to humbly nominate my own group: white women. 55-43 for Trump in the nat'l exit poll 51-48 in PA 59-40 in FL 61-38 in TX 64-34 in NC
Research tells us that voting is habit forming, contagious, and transformative. DO IT!
Research tells us that voting is habit forming, contagious, and transformative. DO IT!
Julia Macdonald @jumacdo
2K Followers 319 Following Director of Research and Engagement @asianewzealand. Research Professor @josefkorbel. Teaching fellow @VicUniWgtn. @gwucolumbian @uchicago alum.
Roberta Braga @RobertaSBraga
3K Followers 5K Following Founder & Executive Director @DDIAmericas. Formerly: @EquisResearch, @ACLatAm @AtlanticCouncil, @BakerMcKenzie. 🇧🇷🇺🇸. Views my own.
Ed Marin @edmarin
785 Followers 4K Following
Jessica Chen Weiss @jessicacweiss
20K Followers 3K Following Professor @Cornell, senior fellow @AsiaPolicy Center for China Analysis, previously @StateDept @wapo @monkeycageblog, author of https://t.co/Oa1cr2edF1
Juan Machado @_juancmac
1 Followers 37 Following
Luis Alcauter @luisalcaute
761 Followers 2K Following Partner at @SolidarityLLC. Formerly Paid Media Communications Director for the Bernie 2020 @berniesanders. Tweets are my own and don't reflect employer.
Zachary Lorico Hertz @zacharylhertz
1K Followers 1K Following PhD student @UCBerkeley studying elections, local politics, and race in America | formerly @DataProgress, @UChicago, @TuftsUniversity
Em Bello-Pardo, Ph.D. @BelloPardo
2K Followers 2K Following Senior Director of Research & Data Science @YouGovAmerica. Before: @AnalystInst, @GoogleNewsInit / @PewResearch, @FIULACC. 📚: @AU_SPA & @FIU. 🇺🇸 & 🇻🇪
Dr. Heather Silber Mo.. @HeatherSilberMo
2K Followers 4K Following Associate Prof of Political Science @ClarkUniversty. Former Hill staffer. @BrownUPoliSci PhD. Mom. Author, https://t.co/OVWJ0g0q6D…
Lorenza Ramírez @lorenzalramirez
3K Followers 1K Following MBA Candidate @UChicago | organized the @AZDemParty, @CaptMarkKelly, @joebiden, + @ewarren | first-gen @tuftsuniversity; polyglot
Lu Elizondo ⚡ Marke.. @Lu_Elizondo1
1K Followers 5K Following I have helped apps with 10M+ downloads get better marketing... Now on a mission to help 10,000 marketers/students with my content!
Christian Hosam @hosam_christian
2K Followers 4K Following He/him/his. Political Science PhD Candidate @ucberkeley studying The Congressional Black Caucus. @wesleyan_u '15. Formerly at @PolReformNA.
Joaquin @joaquinhguerra
2K Followers 4K Following Founder Más Power Group. I help causes build people powered movements & campaigns for social change y más power. #DaleGas #tejano #allthingsequity
James Booth @JamesFBooth
1K Followers 1K Following political analysis + campaign analytics | @JoeBiden, @PaigeGCognetti, @blue_labs, @AustralianLabor
Angelica Salas @AngelicaCHIRLA
3K Followers 2K Following Proud immigrant, activist for social change and mother. ED of @CHIRLA
Tory Gavito @torygavito
3K Followers 2K Following Democratic Strategist, President/Co-Founder @WaytoWinAF. Texas Forever.
David woods @Davidwo59508181
75 Followers 272 Following
Fernando Severino D. @NandoSeverino
475 Followers 1K Following @IllinoisStateU @ISUSOC Before @calstate @DominguezHills @UMN_HSJMC @ColumbiaSIPA @CNNChile @fcomuc
Evangel Penumaka @evangelpenumaka
797 Followers 766 Following Polling principal @DataProgress. Political science PhD @UCLA in race, ethnicity, and politics, religion, and AAPI political behavior.
Daniel Campos @daniel_m_campos
147 Followers 2K Following
Sylvia S - Vote in EV.. @contonolatino
3K Followers 4K Following I help you feel less overwhelmed by the news, eager to create change + more informed about US politics through easy-to-navigate content | Join Me👇🏼
Alvaro Corral @alvarojcorral
854 Followers 2K Following Asst Prof. Political Science @ UT - Rio Grande Valley. Latinx Politics & Immigration Policy. Tweeter for @MPSALatino; same handle 🟦☁️
Alexandre Monnier Her.. @Alex4BlueFL
158 Followers 693 Following 🇲🇽🇫🇷 del 305 @mcgillu @MiamiforGillum @OrgCorps2020 @BernieSanders Iowa @FLADems @JoeBiden @JonOssoff @ReverendWarnock @ranti4si @vademocrats now: Polling📊
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Sasha Issenberg @sissenberg
20K Followers 21K Following A journalist for Monocle, Politico, and others. Author of books including @Engagement_Book, @victorylab and (out now) THE LIE DETECTIVES.
Jess Morales Rocketto @JessLivMo
25K Followers 5K Following Building rocket ships to the moon. | ❤️ @RossMoRock | Tweets mine, esp. if🌶| PC @rubcha
Roeland Termote @RoelandTermote
2K Followers 4K Following Journalist at @destandaard. Previously Central/Eastern Europe Correspondent at @nrc.
First day out @yungcords
13 Followers 723 Following
🌻Maria I. Puerta R.. @Maripuerta
25K Followers 14K Following Proud immigrant • PoliSci Adj Prof • PhD in Cultural Studies • @UCarabobo • Democracy & Autocratization • She/Her/Ella • RT≠endorsement
Anda pa allá Bobo @hectorportillo
715 Followers 2K Following In this account we obey the laws of thermodynamics. Views are my own, likes or rts =/= endorsements, etc. No salgo en YouTube.
Robert Castaneda 🇺.. @RCast_Jr
560 Followers 2K Following @latinainstitute @VoteTripling @townhallproject @personalpac @ohdems | 🌈 🇺🇸 of 🇲🇽 descent | Tweets are mine
Bart C Rutherford Jr @brutherfordjr
628 Followers 3K Following State Partnerships Director Building Back Together. Hub Project Alum, HRC 16, OFA 12. All thoughts are my own.
Natalia Campos Vargas @nataliacamposv
408 Followers 1K Following deputy research director, messaging @EquisResearch. hoya saxa 🫓
Isaac Rabbani @IsaacRabbani
531 Followers 537 Following economist & researcher with the Center for Working-Class Politics. also I was on Jeopardy that one time. tweets on labor, politics, and my cat
Chuck Rocha @ChuckRocha
46K Followers 3K Following Founder @solidarityllc 2023 creative agency of the year! Public speaking and media booking here: [email protected]
Alma Castro @Alma_LBC
840 Followers 682 Following Building vibrant & equitable spaces one day at a time l #CivicConfidence l Cities l
Eduardo Moncada @EduardoMoncad
3K Followers 5K Following Associate Prof of Politics @BarnardCollege @columbia #FirstGen. crime, violence, & resistance. Book: Resisting Extortion (2022). (https://t.co/l4ORPlHHHm).
Literary Taxidermy @LitTaxidermy
2K Followers 3K Following The Literary Taxidermy Writing Competition invites writers to stitch together stories and poems based on the opening and closing lines of well-known works.
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj
2K Followers 5K Following Political data @GSG. Former academic, campaign staff. UMich PhD (go blue!) he/him/his. politics, surveys, stats, soccer, D&D, dogs. Tweets are my views only
Gabriela Cid @cid__5
2K Followers 2K Following She/Ella | 💡Non-English @EquisResearch | Hija de inmigrantes 🌮Taco Judge | Alum: UCSB, USC, @lta1975 | Prev: @HollyJMitchell @EWarren @RepBarragan
Esteban J. Quiñones,.. @estebanjq3
3K Followers 5K Following Development economist, demographer & social scientist @MathematicaNow Anti-fascist Anti-racist he/el 🇺🇸🇪🇨
God’swill Osa @god_osa
329 Followers 1K Following UTexas Phd Student in Political Science. Interest Areas are: Political Behavior, Public Opinion, Pol. Methodology, and Race/Ethnic Politics 🇳🇬🇺🇸
Susan Merriam @semerriam
490 Followers 1K Following Data and Visual Journalist, Enterprise and Investigations, @mcclatchy. Co-founder @politicsndesign. Alum @columbiajourn @risd
Community Conversatio.. @Project4America
287 Followers 393 Following Community Conversations works to bridge America’s growing civic divide and defend against the targeted disinformation that we know makes that divide worse.
Alec Bickerstaff @AlecBickerstaff
647 Followers 672 Following Come for the Baha Blasts. Stay for the Haha Laughs.
Hispanics in Philanth.. @BeHIPGive
9K Followers 4K Following HIP strengthens Latinx leadership, influence & equity by leveraging philanthropic resources.
Chuck Rocha @ChuckRocha
46K Followers 3K Following Founder @solidarityllc 2023 creative agency of the year! Public speaking and media booking here: [email protected]
Roberta Braga @RobertaSBraga
3K Followers 5K Following Founder & Executive Director @DDIAmericas. Formerly: @EquisResearch, @ACLatAm @AtlanticCouncil, @BakerMcKenzie. 🇧🇷🇺🇸. Views my own.
John Sides @johnmsides
8K Followers 1K Following Professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. Publisher of @goodauth. Co-author of THE BITTER END (https://t.co/S984rgq1Yq?…).
Larry Meadows @larryameadows
123 Followers 737 Following
Robert Griffin @rp_griffin
3K Followers 851 Following Associate Director of Research @DemocracyFund; Research Director for Voter Study Group; Previously @PRRIpoll @amprog Ed. committee @ps_polisci; Polisci PhD
Kenia Maravilla (she/.. @LaKeniaem
2K Followers 5K Following At @EquisResearch 🚀Always for our ppl, imagining a new world! 🇳🇮 #Onhere for the memes #LatinAmericanist @CLACS_NYU alum | 👑🌊
Yair Ghitza @yghitza
1K Followers 601 Following
Jonathan Robinson �.. @jon_m_rob
6K Followers 5K Following Always: progress & data-driven. ex-@Catalist_US. R's Dude. J's Dad. @benj_robinson's twin. @AffordablePAC YIMBY. Mensch
Chris Warshaw @cwarshaw
5K Followers 1K Following Professor of Political Science @GWtweets. Focus on representation, elections, & public opinion. Co-Author, Dynamic Democracy, https://t.co/pA44t0Glgn
Ben Lazarus @ben_d_lazarus
557 Followers 2K Following Pollster with @TargetSmart. Opinions are mine.
Kevin Collins @kwcollins
7K Followers 1K Following Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation, causal identification. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. He/Him
Jake M. Grumbach @JakeMGrumbach
26K Followers 4K Following policy, $, political economy of race // 70-80s soul, 90s hip hop // #DubNation // proud product of miscegenation // Berkeley prof. formerly: UW, Princeton CSDP
Omar Wasow | @owasow@.. @owasow
34K Followers 15K Following Asst Prof, Berkeley, Pol. Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding https://t.co/HQAGSf9JK9 2/ Race as Bundle of Sticks https://t.co/PuFZmnG4qP
David Broockman @dbroockman
13K Followers 2K Following Day job = Associate Prof. of Political Science @UCBerkeley. Tweets = personal views. @[email protected]
Kevin M. Kruse @KevinMKruse
466K Followers 3K Following No longer posting here -- try the same handle on Substack, Bluesky and Threads. CAMPAIGN TRAILS newsletter: https://t.co/B5Q3HztuHd
FiveThirtyEight @FiveThirtyEight
1.3M Followers 329 Following Data-driven news and analysis from @ABC News’s 538.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
3.4M Followers 2K Following New Book, On The Edge, August 13: https://t.co/WeCLEOd4Be
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Latino Decisions @LatinoDecisions
12K Followers 1K Following Everything Latino Politics. Latino Decisions is the leading voice in public opinion polls of Latinos.
Matt A. Barreto 🇵�.. @realMABarreto
7K Followers 2K Following 🇵🇪⚽️ Co-founder @BSPresearch Profe at @UCLAccstudies @polisciUCLA @UCLALatino @ucla_vrp, Sr advisor @BuildingBack_US formerly @JoeBiden RT or ❤️ ≠ endorsement
Caitlin Opperman @caitlinopperman
812 Followers 885 Following Research Director @EquisResearch | she/her/hers
EquisLabs @EquisLabs
772 Followers 4 Following Creating a home for ideas, knowledge, and leaders. For polling, follow @EquisResearch
Carlos Odio @carlosodio
5K Followers 3K Following Co-founder, @EquisResearch | Film Twitter lurker | Alum, @neworganizing, @barackobama | Not a pollster I just poll a lot
Stephanie Valencia @stephanievalenc
8K Followers 2K Following Create. Innovate. Do | Co-Founder Latino Media Network | Co-Founder @EquisResearch @Poderista | Former @google @whitehouse @transition46 Proud New Mexican
Equis Research @EquisResearch
4K Followers 51 Following Solving for X by creating a better understanding of the #Latinx electorate. https://t.co/wpC8M1AHGC
Today is Election Day and there's way too much riding on these elections. You're still on time to vote--for more info regarding your closest voting location and registration status, visit iwillvote.com Don't stay home! Go vote!
Overheard on cable: Latinos are “behaving more like working-class whites.” Reality check: in ‘20, 37/35% of non-college whites voted for Biden/congressional Dems. Meanwhile, 63% of Latinos voted for Biden/Dems. dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotf…
I don’t think most people truly grasp the extent to which Dem victories rely on super-high margins from non-white voters. Latinos were the Scottie Pippen / Klay Thompson of the Dem coalition in 2020, *even after the famous shift*
LATINO EDAY THREAD #1 - The Warm-Up - The first of a few threads prepping for tonight. Later: some data we’ve been holding back. Right now: let’s start with some scene-setting…
Huge shout-out to @carlosodio and @RachelMStein1 who have lived in a Special Data Cave for the last 6 months! Their brilliance and tenacity inspires me and I'm **so** proud to be on their team!
Dems should not take the wrong lessons from tonight and fall into the trap of racing to the right. People want their politicians to deliver, they want results. Dem's have the oppty to do that with the BIF and reconciliation NOW - tax cuts, climate, jobs, immig. Don't mess up.
The most beautiful Table 1 I've ever made 😍 Thanks to modelsummary by @VincentAB #dataviz #rstats
@chrislhayes @mattyglesias @davidshor Interesting for sure. I'm reluctant to seriously move towards centering white voters even more than they already are however. Some people do need to spend time focusing on this issue: "Asian and Hispanic Americans participate in electoral politics at a lower rate."
Our contributions to this Nation have helped to make us great. And we are only at the beginning. Let's move beyond just the performative monthly celebrations and have a serious conversation about the real solutions that serve the longer term needs of our community. - FIN -
If you are waking up to news about the #TexasAbortionLaw and want to do something about it - give to folks on the front lines! A thread🧵:
@pollhannes @Nate_Cohn I think my two cents once again is that what you "can expect" varies considerably between groups. It's not that it's a zero-value metric, it's that its value is considerably lower with some groups. For example, I think there's a decent case that it's not cross-racially valid.
I'm going to do a thread on the Erin Hartman, Eli Ben Michael & Avi Feller's DRP paper separately since I loved the paper so much. But I LOVED @b_m_stewart's summation of the core problems with survey weighting & causal inference how much cross-pollination there is across fields
This is the $ graph, FWIW, about which groups surveys had the biggest problems with (could also produce one that's more implicitly weighted by how big the group is but I think this is informative on it's own)
Hispanics, self-identified 'urban' voters, Millenials, moderates, Independents, and voters with a high school education or less. Not white non-college voters (though kind of hard to reconcile this since Pew's pre-election result was Biden +10).
I moved to LA! Today’s my first full day working in my new place. Here’s hoping working east coast hours doesn’t turn me into a zombie 🌴☀️🥰
The first maskless photo of President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Attn Democrats (esp Senate Dems): words alone on immigration WILL NOT CUT IT. There needs to be real action + results. You should not fear immigration as an issue, rather see it as a way for you to differentiate from Republicans.
Fascinating new poll from @USImmHUB: Very large majorities of Latinos favor Biden's immigration solutions -- when they're described. The problem is large percentages don't have a clear sense of his positions. Blows up a lot of pat pundit narratives: theimmigrationhub.org/equisbsp-poll-…
NEW: A third of unvaccinated #Hispanic adults want to get a COVID-19 vaccine ASAP, twice the share of White adults. Job, cost and immigration-related concerns pose potential barriers for some. Our report examines Hispanics’ vaccine views & experiences: kff.org/coronavirus-co…
Really enjoying listening to @joshclinton discuss the @AAPOR Task Force's preliminary findings on the performance of polls in the 2020 election.
All vaxed up and ready to go! Feel great and ready to take on the world! #vaccinated
On this point highly recommend the work of @vcruznichols, starting with her dissertation deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42…
3. DON’T ASSUME NEGATIVE THREAT MESSAGING, ON ITS OWN, WILL MOBILIZE LATINOS: Negative needs to be linked to oppty and change. For Dem and prog campaigns esp: if both candidates are seen as same, the default for Latinos isn’t the Dem, it’s the couch
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