Also, @michaelbg01 has nearly finished a manuscript on the preprint forecasts -- using only the surveys for clarity.
And we are collaborating with @replicats on correlates of good forecasting. (Expecting to mostly corroborate earlier work, but worth a check.)
@ReplicationMkts
folks: Anyone know these forecasters? They haven't responded to our prize emails.
In other news, catch the Economist article on mainstream prediction markets: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
Resolving COVID-400 markets. Anyone have Journal Impact Factors (or similar) for:
* Communications Medicine
* Int'l J. Research in Medical Sciences
* J. of Rare Diseases and Orphan Drugs
* Lancet Microbe
* Lancet Regional Health - Europe
* The Innovation
Almost prizes ... but not quite.
Rounds 1-11 are good, but co-pilot checks today found a slight discrepancy a Round 0 merge.
I'm sure it will be embarrassingly obvious on Monday.
Good news - we got extra resolutions from DARPA last week. About 100 regular + 30 covid resolutions now.
Doing final prize calculations review today/tomorrow. On track for Friday prize announcement.
If you'd like to get occasional invitations to participate in our research then sign-up here: replicationmarkets.com/index.php/upco… Note that even current participants need to have opted-in.
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