Michael Hobbes @RottenInDenmark
Currently @MaintenancePod and @IfBooksPod. Formerly @YoureWrongAbout, @HuffPost, @Highline. Solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short. michaelhobbes.substack.com Seattle Joined May 2012-
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@jonathanchait This is embarrassing. It's extremely telling that Singal has no one in his life who will take him aside and tell him not to post stuff like this
Remember that the alternative that anti-trans obsessives offer here is not a different treatment better supported by the evidence, it is quite literally "get over it"
Remember that the alternative that anti-trans obsessives offer here is not a different treatment better supported by the evidence, it is quite literally "get over it"
@jonathanchait @RottenInDenmark Let’s assume Singal is right about the studies Hobbes and others cite and they aren’t nearly comprehensive. Ok. What about Hobbes’ central question in response: where is the evidence GAC including blockers is harmful and being given out Willy nilly? Where are the detransitioners?
Jesse constantly accuses ppl who disagree with his interpretation of the data of being "liars" who treat others as "enemies" and who don't understand the "tricky science stuff." he cannot admit that his interpretation is just that: an interpretation...
Jesse constantly accuses ppl who disagree with his interpretation of the data of being "liars" who treat others as "enemies" and who don't understand the "tricky science stuff." he cannot admit that his interpretation is just that: an interpretation...
Jesse is very concerned that the existing GAC treatment paradigm is not helping people. Is there evidence GAC actually helps people? Well, yes. But is there any evidence the GAC approach is too harmful? Well, no. But maybe there's evidence regret is high? Well, also no. >>
Jesse is very concerned that the existing GAC treatment paradigm is not helping people. Is there evidence GAC actually helps people? Well, yes. But is there any evidence the GAC approach is too harmful? Well, no. But maybe there's evidence regret is high? Well, also no. >>
also the USTS trans survey is not a survey of just people who are rah-rah trans. It's literally just asking people currently identifying as trans. The fact that he thinks that's the same thing is REALLY telling for how he views trans identity.
also the USTS trans survey is not a survey of just people who are rah-rah trans. It's literally just asking people currently identifying as trans. The fact that he thinks that's the same thing is REALLY telling for how he views trans identity.
If you're on the fence on gender-affirming care, understand that one side makes a big deal about the evidence, but doesn't follow it, and the other is mostly concerned with civil rights, but does care a lot about the actual evidence and engages with it honestly and in good faith.
If you're on the fence on gender-affirming care, understand that one side makes a big deal about the evidence, but doesn't follow it, and the other is mostly concerned with civil rights, but does care a lot about the actual evidence and engages with it honestly and in good faith.
"Either way, who cares?" is a fantastic argument when it's literally the subject of your article
"Either way, who cares?" is a fantastic argument when it's literally the subject of your article
god damn lol
But also, even accepting those people won't show up in these surveys, they also aren't showing up anywhere else either? If this is the massive act of medical malpractice perpetrated against 9000 (also, an amazingly small number), why are there only, like three detransitioners?
But also, even accepting those people won't show up in these surveys, they also aren't showing up anywhere else either? If this is the massive act of medical malpractice perpetrated against 9000 (also, an amazingly small number), why are there only, like three detransitioners?
Yes. The weakness of the existing research is a reason for practitioners to proceed carefully and continue gathering data — which they are! Meanwhile, we have a nationwide legislative assault on trans rights at every level and these alleged "objective" journalists don't care.
Yes. The weakness of the existing research is a reason for practitioners to proceed carefully and continue gathering data — which they are! Meanwhile, we have a nationwide legislative assault on trans rights at every level and these alleged "objective" journalists don't care.
@RottenInDenmark I don't know that there's a formal numerical definition of "tiny" but 27% of 1700 is 459 patients a year, which is 0.003% of the 14 million children in the UK 🤷♀️
Absolutely Classic Singal, where the headline is LYING LIAR LIES!! and then the actual content is a debate over whether "small" and "tiny" are synonymous. Next step is to show up in your mentions and start arguing about the definition of "synonym".
Absolutely Classic Singal, where the headline is LYING LIAR LIES!! and then the actual content is a debate over whether "small" and "tiny" are synonymous. Next step is to show up in your mentions and start arguing about the definition of "synonym".
Aubrey Gordon isn’t.. @yrfatfriend
130K Followers 622 Following Cohost of @MaintenancePod. Author of 2 books, working on a third. I’m in @yrfatfriendfilm. Find me on instagram & bsky, I’m not here anymore!
Law Boy @The_Law_Boy
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You're Wrong About... @yourewrongabout
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Several people are ty.. @Beeeeeeeees
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@Left_Sharkey @RottenInDenmark "Hobbes thinks that the absolute numbers are small, I think that the percentage increase alone is dangerous" is a perfectly reasonable thing to believe, you should just say that instead of screaming about how everyone is conspiring against you.
@tacomanbearpig @RottenInDenmark (I agree with Michael lol I’m mocking how dumb Singal’s claim is)
@pegala_la @RottenInDenmark Why would anyone consider that study to be useless? Researchers routinely use data with significant biases because that's what is available. It limits the conclusions we can get from it, but it is not useless.
@pegala_la @RottenInDenmark But there is evidence of a benefit. GAC is given to very small numbers of people. The fact that we can very easily find many people who are better-off and few who are not is evidence that it works well. We don't know exactly how well, but we know it works pretty well.
@pegala_la @RottenInDenmark The groups are not necessarily equally biased in an RCT. For one thing, randomization is often messed up. For another, people don't necessarily drop out evenly in the two groups. So you do get biases that affect the outcome.
@RottenInDenmark "Relatively small definitely isn't tiny" is the archetypal example of his weaponized pedantry. His MO is basically to find the tiniest nits to pick, act extremely shocked and offended, and say that therefore everything somebody says must not be true.
@RottenInDenmark Cass keeps lying in interviews. She says children were failed by wea evidence when she has no evidence of that. She says "we" have no idea what happened to the <400 kids who got puberty blockers yet everyone that hasn't emigrated is in NHS lifelong records.
@RottenInDenmark Of course some were below the average. That's how averages work. FFS!
Gender assessments aren’t known to be reliable and more often than not merely reflect cisnormative biases. For a review: psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2024-…
Personally I think having an average of 7 appointments before getting hormones — and only 27% of patients getting them at all — is good evidence that kids were being assessed. Jesse "debunks" this by saying we don't have complete records and some were below the average.
@blueboatmom @RottenInDenmark structure is a fallacy by itself. It's why good faith arguments need a core backstop in the first place, and if you can't prove every single step (which I will keep adding steps) you lose is just a waste of time from someone who should not be taken seriously. 2/2
@blueboatmom @RottenInDenmark You actually can't scientifically debate someone who just says all the current evidence that disprove my personal theory isn't valid because they don't meet my arbitrary threshold that has changed multiple times. Like evolution vs creationism, the idea it is debatable in said 1/
University of Pennsylvania just launched their Gaza Solidarity Encampment:
@tmoney2007 The USTS actually asks about periods of detransition and is NOT exclusive to trans people. If you are detrans you can still take it. We will see soon what the results are from those areas as we only have preliminary reports thus far.
@EliErlick I started HRT with one appointment…any medical professional worth their salt would be able to tell if a patient would be ready for the enormous decision of going on HRT. Gatekeeping is stupid and those that either revert/detrans or don’t want to be on HRT will naturally fall off…
Counterpoint: Nobody needs 7 appointments before starting HRT. 7 is way too high and nothing we should aspire to. With minimal risks, people can safely start hormones after 1 appt. For those who want to be extra cautious, maybe 2. The average means there’s needless gatekeeping!
Personally I think having an average of 7 appointments before getting hormones — and only 27% of patients getting them at all — is good evidence that kids were being assessed. Jesse "debunks" this by saying we don't have complete records and some were below the average.
The central political question of 🇮🇱/🇵🇸 is whether or not there is a legitimate justification for a state to indefinitely deny 50% of its population political rights or self-determination. Everything else is commentary.
@AriDrennen Singal, Chait, et al, advocate a standard for administering GAC that no medical treatment could meet. In their view, GAC is permissible only with irrefutable proof that no-one ever regrets getting it and that no doctor has ever been less than perfectly cautious in prescribing it.
@jonathanchait You know what this QT did provoke me to read it and Jesse links to Slate Star Codex(looooool). Slate Star Codex!!!!
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