Sam Shiffman @SamShiffman00

The more useful AI gets, the more everyone spends on it, and it's still early days. @fidenzamacro on Real Vision.

Lagarde: We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues

NETANYAHU MAY HEAD TO WASHINGTON FOR TRUMP-LED CEASEFIRE PUSH Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly planning a potential trip to Washington in the coming weeks to meet President Donald Trump, according to an Israeli source. The visit could happen as soon as next week or the following one, as Trump works to extend and expand a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, currently set to expire in mid-May. Trump is also pushing for a rare high-level meeting between Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun—an unprecedented step given the lack of formal relations between the two countries. However, Aoun has already declined a direct call with Netanyahu, and his participation in any face-to-face meeting remains uncertain amid ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.

🇦🇪 Critical context for the UAE's announced departure from OPEC: the UAE has chronically overproduced it's official OPEC production data (and thus quota) for years—by my estimate, ~400 kbpd more on average in 2025. UAE has grown its production capacity more than any other OPEC member, adding ~1 MMbpd since 2019, and it's been champing at the bit to monetize that expanded capacity since at least 2021. Current IEA-estimated UAE production capacity is around 4.3 MMbpd vs implied pre-war crude output of ~3.65 MMbpd, and the goal is to lift that capacity to around 5.0 MMbpd by 2027.

@fejau_inc GO Habs GO

@AndreasSteno The issue Steno is market pricing in only a short term disruption at the moment per calendar spreads… Would need to see peak bearishness to find great alpha in taking the opposite direction

OUT NOW - how @AnnaEconomist sees risk of an oil shock: - inflation likely to peak at 6% even at $200 oil - U.S. economy has chance to be resilient, even at $150 - Fed should look through energy shock & be dovish Apple shorturl.at/8u7d8 Spotify shorturl.at/rjtLv

Spring Break goes WILD☀️ 🍺🤪 and the students have NO IDEA what’s going on🤣 “The BIGGEST issue in America is what BIKINI I’m wearing tomorrow”👙 “We’re going to war with IRAQ that’s been crazy”🤔 “I’ve NEVER heard the word Ayatollah in my life”🫢 “Is Venezuela in SPAIN?”😬😬😬

OIL TANKER EXPLOSION NEAR ABU DHABI - IRIB

@sizov_andre Curious to know your fundemental views on Corn and Wheat aside from this conflict

@Osinttechnical So they missed?

Operation Shield of Judah Free Live map with 15min update on strikes with oil facilities, nuclear and military base. #oott #Iran #wti #Brent #Tehran claude.ai/public/artifac…

You can have a verified track record, audited numbers & a Sharpe above 1.5 — & still never raise a dollar. Claudia Quintela raises $50–200M checks for emerging hedge fund managers who can run a book but can't yet get in the room — she's done it for 25 years across UBS, Morgan Stanley & State Street. "I raised a manager $150M in 3–4 months. The week before, I found out one partner had runway until September. It was June." This is what institutional capital raising actually looks like. We cover: — Why $10M in audited personal capital is still below the threshold most allocators care about — Capacity constraints: the difference between a $250M boutique strategy & a $1B scalable platform — How to structure economics when an investor loves the strategy but the term sheet isn't there yet — Why the fundraising process for an early-stage manager runs 9–18 months minimum — The break-even analysis every investor will run on your business before they run it on your returns — How one manager kept institutional money through a massive drawdown — by over-communicating every step down — Why fact sheets get ignored & what the best managers send instead — The "get out of bed price"— how to negotiate with prime brokers when you have no AUM Huge thanks to Claudia for 25 years of hard-won insight distilled into one conversation. Highlights: 00:00 Understanding the High Failure Rate of Startup Hedge Funds 04:42 The Critical Shift from Trader to Business Builder 18:39 Mastering Communication and Transparency with Investors 24:36 Beyond Skills: Personality Traits of Top Managers 31:56 Using AI and Data to Build Investor Relationships 48:11 Financial Literacy and Portable Skills for Long-Term Success

🇺🇸 Employment — January 2026 *Revelio Labs says US Jan. Nonfarm Jobs fell 13,300. reveliolabs.com/public-labor-s…

I find it hard to believe heading towards midterms that Bessent will let long end yield rise further. If anything, the fed reducing B/S would be a long process and bear in mind it's still force to buy bills to support funding conditions... If anything Bessent incentives to issue more towards the short end has increase with FED becoming the new marginal buyer...

16/ The lesson: The signal on AI infrastructure is on X and in long-form podcasts. Baker's interview was 90 minutes of alpha hiding in plain sight. The All-In pod showed the thesis playing out in real-time. If you're waiting for sell-side research to tell you this, you're already late. Probabilities are changing at an exponential pace. Adapt or die.

@AndreasSteno great read thanks!

If I were the U.S. Treasury and I saw the Fed buying $40B a month in T-bills while risk premia kept grinding higher—and I knew the Fed expected its purchases to slow after the April 15 tax date... I’d lean issuance hard into the front end ASAP. Keep SOFR–fed funds trading wide/over, keep bill supply flowing, and make it harder for the Fed to justify stepping back. There’s doing the right thing… and then there’s winning reelection. #FederalReserve #treasury #MonetaryPolicy #inflation

Headline: Combined Oct/Nov = +3.2% (+3.8 excluding the effects of the shutdown & its impact on Federal employee payrolls). Net-net: No big contraction in labor; slow decline but still positive. I'm combining Oct/Nov because of the way Nov 1st fell in 2024 vs 2025.

@lord_fed Nice post