Simply Macro @SimplyMacro

@CyberScrilla Honestly, this is just poor wallet hygiene. Some folks are better off just holding on an exchange that’s credible and if possible one that is publicly traded. It’s too easy to get swindled when you don’t understand the tech enough.

Morning Coffee Macro | Friday, Oct 9, 2026 Good morning. Wall Street wants a Friday bounce. Trump says the US won't attack Iran before the midterms, and oil is cooling off with Brent near $103. Cheaper oil gives stocks room to breathe. Nasdaq futures are up about 0.8% as AI stocks bounce back from Thursday's OpenAI revenue scare. Not everyone is smiling, though. T-Mobile is down about 7% before the bell after a SpaceX phone signal deal stirred up new competition, and Delta slipped after weaker earnings. Crypto is calm next to all that. Bitcoin is up about 1% overnight to around $83,000. Currencies are quiet too. The dollar is a touch softer, while the yen is weakening a bit against it. Simply Macro Explanation When war fears fade, oil gets cheaper and investors feel brave enough to buy stocks again. Today that relief is landing mostly on tech. #Markets #Oil #Stocks #Bitcoin #Macro

BREAKING: Starbucks has explored buying Chipotle, the Financial Times reports. It would be the biggest restaurant deal ever. Chipotle jumped about 7%. Starbucks fell about 4%. Here's the twist. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol used to run Chipotle and led its big comeback. Chipotle is now worth about $41 billion. The old record was Burger King buying Tim Hortons for about $11 billion. It's not clear an offer was ever made, and sources say a deal may not happen. Simply Macro Explanation When a company might get bought, its stock jumps on hopes of a premium price. The buyer often slips because investors worry it will overpay. #Starbucks #Chipotle #Stocks #Deals #SimplyMacro

Morning Coffee Macro | Thursday, October 8, 2026 Good morning. War worries are back on the menu. Reports say the Pentagon is getting ready for possible new strikes on Iran, and Trump says a deal is "not really something" he wants. Brent oil jumped about 4% to near $104. When oil spikes like that, stocks usually flinch. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.4% and Nasdaq futures about 0.7%. Chip stocks are slipping after Samsung's profit missed hopes, while Palantir is bucking the trend after a Goldman Sachs upgrade. Crypto isn't finding shelter either. Bitcoin is hanging around $82,500, a level traders are watching closely. The money that is moving is heading into the dollar. The dollar sits near an 18 month high, and the euro is near a 17 month low around $1.12 on French debt worries. Next up are jobless claims at 7:30 AM CT and a 30 year Treasury sale. Simply Macro Explanation Fear of more fighting pushes oil up, and pricier oil keeps inflation and interest rates high. That is a headwind for stocks and crypto and a tailwind for the dollar. #MorningCoffeeMacro #SimplyMacro #Oil #Markets #Bitcoin

That has NEVER happened before. Fuel now costs double the price of crude oil. Crude has always driven product prices. That relationship has now broken down. Refining capacity outside China is short. Russian refineries are being hit. Middle East export refineries are shut. So the price at the pump is no longer about oil. It is about everything after the oil.

Excellent take from Raoul per usual

Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

a day ago

Since we first started measuring economies, GDP has only ever been able to grow three ways. Population growth, plus productivity growth, plus debt growth. That equation is The Everything Code. And it's what has left us in the mess we're in today. We have too few workers and too

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U.S. Treasury yields climbed Wednesday, trading back around multiyear highs, as traders braced for the sale of 10-year notes at a time when rising yields have rattled investors around the world. The benchmark 10-year Treasury was up nearly 8 basis points at 5.35% — its highest level since 2002. The 30-year Treasury bond rose 8.3 basis points to 5.724%, also reaching a 24-year high. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up 2.7 basis points to 4.818%. Full details: cnb.cx/4zfc58p

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This is what crowd out looks like.

Afternoon Market Recap: Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026 Stocks slipped from record highs today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell 0.2%. The Dow lost 0.7%. Most of the Dow's drop came from one stock. Caterpillar fell almost 6% after an analyst downgrade. The bigger story was bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.37% during the day, its highest since 2002. That's the rate that steers mortgages and business loans, so when it jumps, stocks feel it. Then a strong government bond sale calmed things down, and stocks trimmed their losses into the close. Next up: big banks kick off earnings season next week. Simply Macro Explanation: When safe bonds pay this much, stocks have to work harder to look worth buying. Today bonds calmed down by the close, but they're still the thing to watch. #StockMarket #Macro #Treasuries #SP500 #Investing

BREAKING: SPACEX WANTS TO BORROW $40 BILLION TO BUY NVIDIA CHIPS. The plan is about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in bonds, with Apollo leading the deal. That would be one of the biggest debt deals ever for the AI buildout. It comes just months after SpaceX sold $25 billion in bonds following its June IPO. Investors are not cheering. SpaceX shares are down about 2% today, and even Nvidia is slipping. The talks are early and could still fall apart, but the bigger picture matters more. AI is increasingly being built with borrowed money. All that borrowing competes with the government for the same pool of savings, which helps keep pushing interest rates higher. Simply Macro Explanation (plain-English TL;DR) SpaceX wants a giant loan to buy AI chips. When companies borrow this much, it can make borrowing more expensive for everyone. #SpaceX #Nvidia #AI #Markets #SimplyMacro

Morning Coffee Macro | Wednesday, October 7, 2026 Good morning. The record run is taking a coffee break. Oil is back in charge today. Brent is back above $101 as Iran keeps hitting tankers near Hormuz and the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia. A Gulf of Mexico storm is also shutting down some US oil output. Pricier oil means stickier inflation, and bonds feel it first. The 30 year Treasury yield touched 5.70%, its highest since 2002. Higher borrowing costs are cooling stocks before the bell. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.3% and Nasdaq futures about 0.7%, a day after record closes. Constellation Brands is down about 6% even after beating forecasts, because beer demand slipped. Crypto is feeling the same squeeze. Bitcoin slid under $84,000 as traders betting on gains got forced out. The dollar is the winner, up against every major currency as the euro gives back Tuesday's bounce. Next up are the Fed minutes at 1 PM CT, plus a big 10 year Treasury sale. Simply Macro Explanation When oil jumps, investors expect higher prices ahead, so they demand higher interest rates. That makes stocks and crypto less appealing. #MorningCoffeeMacro #SimplyMacro #Markets #Oil #Bitcoin

Afternoon Market Recap: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 Stocks closed at record highs today. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,818.93, its first record close since August. The Nasdaq and the Dow also gained about half a percent. So what changed? Two worries cooled off at once. Oil stopped climbing, with US crude ending flat near $89. Calmer oil means less fear of rising prices, so bond yields slipped and the 10-year eased to about 5.28%. Lower yields make stocks look more attractive, and AI names got their momentum back. Next up is earnings season, which kicks off next week with the big banks. Simply Macro Explanation: Quiet oil eased inflation fears, borrowing costs dipped, and stocks hit new highs. Now company profits have to back it up. #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #Oil #Earnings

BREAKING: GOOGLE JUST SIGNED A GIANT NUCLEAR POWER DEAL, AND POWER STOCKS ARE SURGING. Google is buying 3,590 megawatts of electricity from Constellation Energy. About a quarter of that is brand new nuclear power, unlocked by upgrading 11 existing reactors. Wall Street loved it. Constellation is up about 15% today, wiping out its entire September slump in one session. The rally is spreading across the sector. Vistra and Talen, two other big power producers, are both up double digits. This is the AI trade moving from chips to the power grid. Data centers need huge amounts of electricity, and tech giants are now paying to lock it in for up to two decades. Simply Macro Explanation (plain-English TL;DR) AI runs on power, and Google just reserved a lot of it for up to 20 years. Investors are betting the companies that own power plants come out big winners. #AI #Nuclear #Energy #Google #SimplyMacro

Morning Coffee Macro | Tuesday, October 6, 2026 Good morning. Stocks want another record. Oil is why markets can breathe today. Brent slipped back under $100 as Gulf crude keeps flowing and the G7 taps emergency reserves. The risk is not gone. Iran still says Hormuz stays shut, and tanker attacks continue. Cheaper oil gave bonds a break too. Treasury yields eased off their highest levels since 2002. That relief is lifting stocks before the bell. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.4% after the Nasdaq closed at a record. Option Care Health is up about 20% on reports McKesson wants to buy it. Crypto is not joining the party yet. Bitcoin got turned away at $87,000 for the third time since late September and sits near $86,000. The dollar is catching its breath as well, with the euro bouncing off Monday's 17 month low. Next up is Wednesday's Fed minutes. Simply Macro Explanation Oil and bond yields cooled a little, so stocks got room to climb. The big worry, high borrowing costs, has not gone away. #MorningCoffeeMacro #SimplyMacro #Markets #Oil #Bitcoin

@GasperTheSith Unfortunately, I think the 4 year cycle (while nonsense) plays out predictably because people want it to. We’ve got at least another 1-1.5 years of accumulation. Could be wrong of course, but seems like price manipulation down.

Afternoon Market Recap: Monday, October 5, 2026 Green across the board, and the Nasdaq closed at a new record. The Nasdaq rose 1.05% and the S&P 500 gained 0.66%. The Dow edged up too. Big tech did the heavy lifting, led by Nvidia and Microsoft. The day's biggest mover was PTC, up about 34% after Schneider Electric agreed to buy it. Cheaper oil helped as well. Oil slipped after the G7 said it would release fuel reserves. Bonds are still the worry, though. The 10 year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31%, near its highest in more than 20 years. Bitcoin barely moved, holding near $86,000. Next up: Wednesday's Fed minutes, the notes from its last meeting. Simply Macro Explanation AI excitement and cheaper oil beat out high borrowing costs today. Stocks are near records, but rising bond yields are the risk to watch. #AfternoonRecap #SimplyMacro #Nasdaq #Oil #Fed

BREAKING: THE EURO JUST HIT A 17-MONTH LOW AGAINST THE DOLLAR. It dropped to $1.116 this morning. That is its weakest level since May 2025. The trigger is France. Investors doubt France can get its debt under control. On Friday, the extra yield France pays to borrow versus Germany jumped above 1.5 percentage points. Spain added to the worry today. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for November. Markets mostly shrugged, but it adds more political noise in Europe. Meanwhile, the dollar keeps winning. The dollar index sits near an 18-month high, boosted by high U.S. bond yields. Why it matters: a cheap euro makes European trips and goods cheaper for Americans. But a strong dollar can squeeze U.S. companies that sell overseas. Simply Macro Explanation (plain-English TL;DR) Investors don't trust France's budget, so they are selling euros and buying dollars. Until that fear fades, the dollar stays strong. #Euro #Forex #France #Dollar #Macro

Morning Coffee Macro | Monday, October 5, 2026 Coffee is hot. Futures are a little cold. The weekend story was Iran again. More tankers were hit near Hormuz, and Iran says the strait stays shut until its demands are met. Oil barely flinched. Brent is holding just above $100 as more barrels still get out. That calm in oil kept stocks steady, just not green. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.2% as tech cools off after Friday's record run. The standout is PTC, up 37% premarket after Schneider Electric agreed to buy it. Crypto is ignoring the stock dip. Bitcoin is holding near $86,000. The bigger money move is the dollar. The dollar index hit 102.5, a year and a half high, as French and Spanish politics drag the euro lower. Bonds are still the pressure point. The 10 year Treasury yield sits near 5.28%, close to its highest since 2002. Wednesday brings the Fed minutes, the notes from its last rate hike. Simply Macro Explanation Borrowing costs, oil, and the dollar are all running hot. Markets are calm, but waiting on the Fed's next move. #MorningCoffeeMacro #SimplyMacro #Markets #Oil #Fed

Sunday Futures Open, Oct 4, 2026 Futures are back. Calm start. The weekend story was Iran. Two more tankers were hit near Oman and Hormuz, and Iran says the strait stays shut until its demands are met. Markets shrugged it off, at least for now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% near 7,786. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% near 31,131. Oil is up 0.3% to about $91. That points to a quiet, slightly green Monday open after Friday's rally. The real test is bond yields. The 10 year hit 5.34% last week, the highest in 24 years, and Fed minutes land Wednesday. Simply Macro Explanation Scary headlines, calm money. Stocks are holding up, but high borrowing costs could change the mood this week. #SundayFutures #SimplyMacro #futures #ES #NQ

Ray Dalio is right about one thing: when money is steadily diluted, asset prices can rise even if the real economy is not getting much richer. A higher stock market is not, by itself, proof of broad prosperity. Where the hard-money argument has been weaker is the timeline. This is not a new idea, and it has not played out as many expected. The dollar did not collapse, and consumer prices did not run away in a straight line. Almost every major economy is on the same system. Central banks target a little inflation and step in against sustained falling prices. When technology makes goods cheaper, that gain often shows up in profits and asset values rather than lower prices for long. The American piece is more specific. Because the dollar is the world’s main reserve currency, the United States can send dollars abroad and bring cheaper goods home. Those imports hold down the prices households see. Foreigners then recycle many of those dollars into Treasuries and U.S. assets. That is not exactly “exporting inflation.” It is importing goods and exporting financial claims. The arrangement can last longer than critics expect. It also depends on the world still wanting dollars. When that willingness fades, the cushion fades with it, and nobody has a reliable way to call that turn. Even the current bond market concerns doesn’t spell the end of dollar dominance. #Dollar #Debasement #RayDalio #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Markets

CF @fergalpha

6 days ago

Ray Dalio just said the quiet part out loud. "If you devalue the money, it makes everything appear to be going up." The stock market boom is a lie… What we're really witnessing is the death of the Dollar, not the growth of the economy. 99% of people have absolutely no idea.

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