Sam @ThinkLikeSamCo
future predictor Joined July 2026-
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Hands down the absolute best description of closing line value I’ve ever seen. CLV is a performance indicator, not determinative of an individual bet.
CLV (Closing Line Value) is one of the most important performance metrics in sports betting. But are you measuring it correctly? Beating the closing line does NOT guarantee you win an individual bet. Variance exists. However, consistently beating an efficient closing market is
@punch_cards @OldManMichter @spshoot Do you even know how lines are made…? If you think line makers are making lines based on trends that are easily available, you’re clueless…
@OldManMichter @spshoot Trends are very valuable and if you are not using them, you have no idea what you’re doing…
@spshoot I have found that the majority of sports bettors on this app have NO IDEA what they’re doing… Someone tried telling me the other day that no winning bettor has ever used a trend before… This is why people losing at 95% clip.
@DanSchneierNFL Jon Runyan Jr.’s contract would like a word.
@HarryDCrane @PlusEVAnalytics Man some days the timeline just gives a few good posts in a row...
One person on X got it perfect today... Mr. Analytics!
Interesting conversation, "The analytics say 51% under some generalized assumptions but I'm not accepting it blindly because I might have more context-specific insight" is fine IMO. "I don't get enough trials to realize the long run so I'm rejecting analytics" is not fine IMO.
@Rishibets @adampensel Yea exactly... How would he or anyone for that matter know all the variables included...?
@TheMailman10462 @adampensel The Mailman delivers
@ScottBarrettDFB That’s not really a good counter argument, Shanahan even said this isn’t an hour at a blackjack table…
I have said this forever. 51% analytics does not always offer an advantage given the context. Before using analytics, ask: What’s the sample size? What’s the context? Does personnel fit? Can I even do what analytics is suggesting?
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table “I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.” “As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for
@ReichelRadio With knowledge like this, it’s no wonder sports bettors are losing at snowballing rates…
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 You mention critical thinking and then ask for proof… can’t make it up! 🤦🏻♂️
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 I’m the sheep but you blindly follow a coach who’s clearly lying… lol ok
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 There’s nuance, but I’ll do me. You continue believing anything and everything people tell you…
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 If he said he got zero carries as planned, yes, I would probably believe him. Occam’s Razor, dude.
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 You believe coaches, naive. I do not, astute.
@xxJCONxx @NFLFrascella @BoltGang311463 Najee Harris got the start because of the fumbles.. Skat got zero carries. Harbaugh says it’s just the flow of the game… Yet, you believe it…
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