Tipswatch @TipsWatch
Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011. tipswatch.com Joined October 2013-
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France's debt to GDP ratio: 111% U.S. debt to GDP ratio: 122%
France's debt to GDP ratio: 111% U.S. debt to GDP ratio: 122%
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Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.035%, down from 4.144% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 3.854%, down from 4.013% last week.
The August inflation report will be released Thursday at 8:30 am ET. All-items inflation is expected to rise 0.3% for the month and 2.9% for the year, up from 2.7% last month. Core inflation is expected to rise 0.3% with the annual rate up 3.1%, same as for July.
When Treasury yields start declining, Series I Savings Bonds get more attractive. It's already happening ... tipswatch.com/2025/09/07/whe…
Tipswatch retweeted
Negative job growth in June ends the current streak of monthly payroll gains at 53 months, the second longest on record (but well shy of the streak of 113 months that ended when Covid hit in 2020).
The latest 5-year TIPS is trading this morning with a real yield of 1.08%, below the Series I Savings Bond's fixed rate of 1.10%. We haven't seen this since pandemic-era chaos.
Now you can accurately price in a Fed rate cut next week. Probably 25 basis points, but who knows?
Now you can accurately price in a Fed rate cut next week. Probably 25 basis points, but who knows?
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 4.247%, down from 4.318% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.184%, down from 4.230% last week.
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 4.073%, down from 4.131% last week. That is 24 basis points below the current effective federal funds rate of 4.31%. One cut is now priced in.
I just posted my forecast for the Series I Savings Bond's fixed-rate reset on Nov. 1. My conclusion: Going down. tipswatch.com/2025/09/02/for…
Ray Dalio is warning of a "debt-induced heart attack" for the U.S. within three years, triggered by shrinking tax revenues and soaring interest rates. Worth considering, at least: fortune.com/2025/09/02/ray…
An inflation surge could be coming in early 2026, triggered by the effect of ‘big beautiful’ tax refund checks. tipswatch.com/2025/08/30/an-…
PCE inflation has been remarkably stable (and generally too high, especially for core) for a full year.
PCE inflation has been remarkably stable (and generally too high, especially for core) for a full year.
I know it doesn't work this way, but no matter the politics, everyone should stand behind an independent Federal Reserve. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agrees ...
I know it doesn't work this way, but no matter the politics, everyone should stand behind an independent Federal Reserve. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agrees ...
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