20 yrs of expensive trading lessons — finally profitable the last 3. Live portfolio, strict 75bps risk, stop on every trade. Follow for daily trades. Not FA.trade-tactically.netlify.app South FloridaJoined April 2026
Cannabis ETF $MSOS is breaking out with strong direction movement with DI+ > DI-
Buying long $MSOS risking 75bps of trading capital with stop at $4.95. Results in a position size of 4.3%.
Monthly Recap for May
May MTD Performance: -4.58%
YTD Performance: +14.30%
May was a rough month for the trend following strategy. First down month of the year.
I went into the month long Oil $USO, Commodities $BCI, Oil Equities $XLE and $OIH which were all stopped out during the month. Also went long and was quickly stopped out of Silver $SLV, Silver Miners $SIL, and Copper Miners $COPX.
The market trend reflected a regime change this month and I am now long new ETFs of:
Trade Update:
Sold all Copper Miners $COPX (reducing portoflio risk as already hold $CPER)
Sold half South Korea $EWY (beta to $SPY > 3)
New buys:
Internet $FDN, 9.6% position with stop at $259.90
Broker Dealers $IAI, 10.8% position with stop at $171.86
US Dollar $UUP, 15% position with stop at $26.95
Solar $TAN, 3.6% position with stop at $58.49
I have now built out at correlation analysis tab on my Open Positions site to view risk/beta vs $SPY, $UUP, $TLT, $USO
I also added a SIGNAL QUEUE on my Watchlist to analyze Buy Trigger candidates to my current portfolio and calculate portfolio risk pro-forma
LFG
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.
After recent drawdown, I went back with Claude Code to analyze my portfolio risk at the time. I was overly concentrated to the same bet through recent additions of $SLV, $SIL, $CPER, $COPX, $PPLT ... portfolio risk was heavily tilted to short USD exposure ...
@prrobbins Having an initial stop before entering trade and sizing position rising same % of capital to the initial stop
Same way the Turtle Traders 🐢 did it
Focus on DEFENSE. Don't Give It Back! At least don't give back anymore than I already have in terms of performance.
I did add 1 long yesterday in $AMLP based on a breakout. I will not be adding any additional positions or risk to the portfolio until performance stabilizes.
My current draw down from all time highs is -6.58%. I'm up +13% YTD.
Yesterday I was stopped out of $PPLT, $SLV, $SIL, and I unwound my $GLD before stop was hit, as price action does not look healthy.
Where to I go from here? ...
TREND FOLLOWING WIPEOUT 🏄♀️
Post Mortem of Recent Recent Performance
I was at my all time highs on 5/13 (7 days ago) up 20% YTD. I was doing a lot of High Fiving and raising my stops, however, I was not selling...
Like the great macro trader @tgmacro says, High Five with one hand and sell some with the other. I did not do enough of that...
Selling all $XME, stop of $113 triggered.
I entered the trade on 4/14, risking 75bps of trading capital. Since opening the trade I have increased the stop a bit, so total loss on the trade is 25bps.
Goal is to keep the loss on the losers less than the gains on the winners.
Defense first.
Selling all of position $REMX
Stop hit. Defense first.
Ended up with a small gain of $450 on this trade. Nothing to write home about, but did not let a winning trade turn into a losing trade.
Entered trade on 4/10/26, sold 25% position higher and let the rest run until stop was hit today.
I size all my positions by risking 0.75% of trading capital/AUM to my initial stop. You can find a Trade Calculator on my free watch list site that will do this math for you when you enter required fields.
Entering new position in $OIH
50 day high breakout triggered
Stop placed below 50 day moving at $412
Position size based on risk of hitting the stop equates to a 8.67% position when risking 0.75% of trading capital/AUM
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