Diego @_dieg_os
Joined August 2020-
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Is there any info (surveys?) about how many people are planning to make 5-6 figure payments on their student loans next week before interest starts accruing again? Big implications for liquidity, TGA, and RRP? @crossbordercap @BobEUnlimited
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Oof. It looks like this is playing out even slower than I expected. But we're almost there for bonds. 2-4 more months. I still think the Fed will have to cut sooner than priced. Housing might not bottom until 2025.
Oof. It looks like this is playing out even slower than I expected. But we're almost there for bonds. 2-4 more months. I still think the Fed will have to cut sooner than priced. Housing might not bottom until 2025.
How long until the market realizes that regional banks aren’t the only ones sitting on big piles of duration that have yet to be marked down?
🔮 July 14, 2023: Long bonds bottom July 26, 2023: Fed starts easing March 1, 2024: Public equities bottom August 5, 2024: Housing bottoms
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