Aaron Lemner @alemner
Joined December 2010-
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@BobEUnlimited Thanks, Bob. How do you think the Fed would respond to that scenario? Would they step in and limit the sharp rise in yields and buy? Also, how do you think about the potential losses foreigners would take dumping that much onto the market?
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@Dcpcooks How much do you believe Z4s sell off on Fri?
@BobEUnlimited Could it be the rates market is discounting (-225bps nxt few yrs) a wtd avg of adjustment cuts (hist ~ 100bps) and recessions cuts (hist ~ 400 to 450 bps)? If so, maybe conditional recession odds for rates is closer to ~ 35 to 40%? (125 / 300 controlling for adj cuts), thx
@BobEUnlimited Thanks for sharing. Given CTAs get a lot of attention as culprits during big reversals in many macro markets, it would be interesting to see the positioning across key markets for your managed futures universe.
@BobEUnlimited @SpreadThread1 It could be related to BBG using a 6m lookback vs Citi using a 3m lookback period for weighting data surprises.
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