Arpit Gupta @arpitrage
Associate Professor of Finance, @NYUStern. Finance/Real Estate/Urban newsletter: https://t.co/lWVJvq6vKg. arpitgupta.info Manhattan, NY Joined September 2015-
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New: Many of London's post-war housing estates are damp, cramped, and cold. But, it's possible to fix that and cut London's housing shortage. Here's how an estate renewal revolution can build half a million homes and cut London’s emissions samdumitriu.com/p/renew-london…
Excited to share what I've been up to this year! On the cover of this week's @TheEconomist is a 6-part special report on India’s economy by Tom Easton+me. It asks - What it would take for India beat 6% growth? - And is Modi up to the task? 🧵on the key arguments 1/
Finance is inherently doomer, since pricing kernels inherently upweight bad states in producing risk neutral probabilities
China's heavy industries like steel and aluminum are a huge emissions problem. Yet, they also provide key inputs into China's clean tech sector, like EVs, solar, and wind. Can China create a virtuous cycle of decarbonization? My latest piece: high-capacity.com/p/how-chinas-c…
The kind of emails I love 😊 In a nutshell, NGDP level targeting best minimizes various #CentralBank losses for different kinds of inflation (CPI, Deflator etc.) compared to IT, especially under limited information or following critical SOE shocks Paper: scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.…
The step down in consumer spending in Q1 was led by a decline in goods spending as consumers appear to be reverting back to a pre pandemic budget share at a faster pace
I'm excited to release a public draft of a review article (with @marinaniessner and @w_mullins_ ) of research on social media and finance. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… The organizing principle is to distinguish "social media as a lens" versus "social media, the phenomenon."
Proud to be here to see @SVNieuwerburgh honored with the inaugural Practice Prize for real world impact
Very happy to release my new paper with @zackcooperYale @stuartcraig @LevKlarnet: "Is There Too Little Antitrust Enforcement in the US Hospital Sector?" (zarekcb.github.io/HospitalMerger…) In open defiance of Betteridge's Law, our answer is "yes, absolutely." (thread below)
Happy to share an article from today in Bloomberg @climate on my new paper on insurance markets in Florida! bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The narrower claim that smartphones should be avoided in school seems on stronger ground than the broader claim that they are principally responsible for deteriorating mental health
The narrower claim that smartphones should be avoided in school seems on stronger ground than the broader claim that they are principally responsible for deteriorating mental health
Ben Golub 🇺🇦 �.. @ben_golub
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Peter Hull @instrumenthull
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkha.. @paulgp
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Toni Whited 🇺🇦 .. @toniwhited
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Martin Schmalz🧘 @OxfordFrom
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Florin Bilbiie 🇪�.. @FlorinBilbiie
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J B @insomnisveratis
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sick public transit, .. @seungylee14
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Muthu Meenakshisundar.. @votemuthu
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Academy of Languages .. @AOL00001
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Bombshell DAILY 💣 @BombshellDAILY
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Tom Sharp | Leadershi.. @TomSharpsays
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Stephen @Greytailphotos
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success Story @storyofmillions
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Joseph Kessler @JFKesslerPE
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Liz @bicyclizt
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Event Organizer @ Har.. @vicdslick
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Lorenzo Spadavecchia @SpadavecchiaL
305 Followers 317 Following grad studies at @PrincetonEcon & @UniBocconi | alumnus @ScuolaSantAnna | Former consultant @IMFNews| #FinDev
Ben Golub 🇺🇦 �.. @ben_golub
49K Followers 2K Following econ prof @NorthwesternU visiting Stanford 23-24 social and economic networks from Ukraine past: @Harvard | @Stanford'12 | @Caltech '07
Peter Hull @instrumenthull
43K Followers 3K Following Professor @Brown_Economics, studying applied econometrics, discrimination, education, and healthcare. Editor @restatjournal, affiliate @nberpubs. I like IV.
Wojtek Kopczuk 🇵�.. @wwwojtekk
48K Followers 1K Following Economist, tax policy/inequality. Editor of @JPubEcon. President @iipf_org. Professional skeptic. Anti-illiberal. Persiflageur.
Florian Ederer @florianederer
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkha.. @paulgp
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Ivan Werning @IvanWerning
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Andrew Charles Baker @Andrew___Baker
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Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig
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John Horton @johnjhorton
14K Followers 2K Following Economist researching online marketplaces. Mind and Hand. Co-founder of @ExpectedParrot
Toni Whited 🇺🇦 .. @toniwhited
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Shengwu Li @ShengwuLi
35K Followers 760 Following Economist. @Harvard. Mechanism design, behavioral theory.
Sylvain Catherine @sc_cath
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Martin Schmalz🧘 @OxfordFrom
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Florin Bilbiie 🇪�.. @FlorinBilbiie
13K Followers 1K Following Max(Micro in Macro) s.t. Tractable Aggregate Demand w/ Heterogeneity/Inequality Aggregate Supply w/ Entry/Variety Monetary & Fiscal Policy #EconTwitter 1st Gen
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Ben Moll @ben_moll
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Anna Stansbury @annastansbury
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Unnati Narang @unnatinarang
2K Followers 1K Following Assistant Professor of Marketing @giesbusiness. I study mobile apps, mobility, and digital platforms. Big on Ed Tech/online learning. Dog & cat mom. @tamu grad.
Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec
75K Followers 3K Following Private sector economic advisor. Author of the newly released book “Cleared for the Option: A Year Learning to Fly”. https://t.co/vhcQrJq9n3. #avgeek
Cameron Murray @DrCameronMurray
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Nicholas Yiu @nicholasyiu
2K Followers 2K Following helping companies build better batteries @voltaiq | writing about energy storage @intercalationst 🔋🏭
Anthony Cheng @acheng98
279 Followers 306 Following PhD @CMU_EPP, Batteries, Technoeconomics, Decarbonization, Policy, Startups; Fmr. @MIT, @MIT_DMSE, @MITStartLabs. Writer @SLCDunk. #EnergyTwitter & #NBATwitter
Liz @bicyclizt
347 Followers 451 Following Here for housing, transportation, and all things Chicago. Opinions are my own.
Halley @halleyji
7K Followers 2K Following Interested in topics related to Modernity-Tradition-Continuity ; Dharma/Religion-Ecology-Economics; Technology-society; Hindu. Male.
Javier D. Donna @javdito
237 Followers 397 Following UF Economics Assist Professor | Associate Director Robert F. Lanzillotti Public Policy Research Center | Empirical IO + Antitrust
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676 Followers 807 Following Urban Policy, Transportation, Housing, Politics Baltimore - Chicago (Hyde Park) - Vijayawada - Delhi - Jaipur - Chicago (Uptown)
sick public transit, .. @seungylee14
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369 Followers 399 Following PhD candidate @Columbia University. Incoming Assistant Professor in Economics at CREST & @ENSAEparis. Development, labor, and environmental economics.
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Abundance Institute @abundanceinst
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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles
27K Followers 4K Following Midwest correspondent @TheEconomist. Before that, in London, Mumbai, Nairobi and DC. Author of Carmageddon: https://t.co/2jGfnn0t9x
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28K Followers 992 Following Former buy-side gone corporate. Still know a thing or three. Interests include: finance, economics, sports, gambling, dad life, etc #FCOTY #FriedEggTwitter
Max Kagan @max_kagan
351 Followers 2K Following I study why companies take public stances on political issues. Now: PhD @UCBerkeley. Next: postdoc @Columbia_Biz. Previously: @mckinsey, @GoodJobsInst.
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458 Followers 680 Following Incoming PhD student at @columbia_econ. Master @PSEinfo. Interested (more or less) in mechanism design,market design, info design, normative economics, AI
David Fishman @pretentiouswhat
29K Followers 538 Following China power - econ & policy analysis for RE, nuclear, coal, markets, grid. 11-yr migrant, currently SH Rural development enthusiast @HopkinsNanjing @LantauGroup
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213 Followers 1 Following A project from @OpenNYforall to elect pro-housing candidates across New York
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2K Followers 1K Following Social and data science at @LSEnews Democracy, behaviour, meta-science, 🇿🇦🇺🇲 Won't reply to anonymous profiles.
Murtaza Hussain @MazMHussain
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Rebecca C. Lewis @_rebeccaclewis
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asheeshksi.bsky.socia.. @AsheeshKSi
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Barry Naughton @bnaughton
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Todd N. Tucker @toddntucker
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Vishal Misra @vishalmisra
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Vaughn Golden @VaughnEGolden
2K Followers 1K Following News and nonsense. Albany Reporter @NYPost. Priors from @WSKG, @wdtnews. Perpetual Philly sports sufferer.
The Emissary @TheEmissaryCo
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Annoying that this comes to us from a basically fake pollster, but clearly there is a difference between the commonsense understanding of “permanent ceasefire” (Israelis and Palestinians stop killing each other forever) and what it means as a term of art in this context.
kudos to the harvard harris poll for showing how wording matters here:
@arpitrage Dropping "Expected" from the above sentence is a bit of demagoguery, no? Mostly because you very well know it should be there, but have dropped it for polemic reasons.
@kn_owled_ge @arpitrage Finance beef! Go go go
@gp_mihalache @arpitrage I'm glad I made your morning, brother 🙃
Much more to come here, but one small announcement: DOE was awarded $6M to use AI to augment federal permitting staff for environmental reviews across the federal government by federal permitting council
Cool paper We have an intuition that "extrapolation" is less reliable than "interpolation", which we might define as, "if it's inside (in the convex hull of) my training data, then it's more reliable" Well, "interpolation" probabilistically never happens in high dimensions
@arpitrage I see my tweet got nerfed by Elon’s magic anti-substack tuning parameter :( but I really enjoyed it thanks for writing it!
Hospital systems have justified horizontal mergers for years claiming that larger scale will lower costs and raise quality. We now have the 3rd study showing that merged systems, even if in different markets, materially raise prices & don't improve quality measures. via @statnews
bittersweet news: my cofounder Holden Karnofsky is leaving for a role @CarnegieEndow. Our announcement: openphilanthropy.org/research/holde…
Been cooking up a theory of how the world's ultra-ultra-luxury markets are one unified "parallel universe" 🌎 and Tracy & Joe at Odd Lots – a pod I admire for its polymathic wonkiness – were kind enough to have me on to talk about it :) 😍
NEW ODD LOTS: The separate real estate market that's just for the ultra rich. @tracyalloway and I spoke to @hitsamty about the market for insanely $$ homes in places like Miami, Dubai, NYC, where prices got completely disconnected from the local market. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A pretty striking graph that shows the effects a Chinese fiscal stimulus that gave "Spend 54, get 18" coupons, which gave MPCs above 1! Doesn't seem to be any evidence of substitution away from other goods or forward in time either. nber.org/papers/w32376
Now confirmed with data. Forbes surveyed managers with hiring authority. When asked whether more/less likely to hire vs 5 years ago: Ivy League: 7% more likely; 33% say less likely Public univs: 42% more likely; 5% less likely Selective privates: 37% more likely; 5% less likely
Anecdotal, but I’ve had several conversations in recent years with people who hire undergrads for highly competitive jobs (tech, finance, consulting etc) that are moving away from the Ivies and towards flagship state universities, citing better cultural and professional fit.
I'm a bit late but I really enjoyed this from @arpitrage arpitrage.substack.com/p/the-bronze-t…
$40k is too much to spend on interest payments for a car
40k on the *interest* for a car, eh? (peeks over expectantly at @ModeledBehavior )
New: Many of London's post-war housing estates are damp, cramped, and cold. But, it's possible to fix that and cut London's housing shortage. Here's how an estate renewal revolution can build half a million homes and cut London’s emissions samdumitriu.com/p/renew-london…
@arpitrage Rajdeep is super biased though. If you really want to learn on the go, would strongly recommend @ShekharGupta's Cut the Clutter series on each state that goes to the polls
@arpitrage Roman Empire nostalgia for the Roman Republic was the original "trad" :D
The Jones Act forces the US to take shipbuilding littorally, but not seriously.
Had to blink several times before fully comprehending this. As a long-term result of the Jones Acts «…three of the ten commercial oil tankers selected to ship fuel for DOD as part of the newly enacted Tanker Security Fleet are Chinese-built.» (Via Toozebook)
Trends for United States
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