Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx
Tropical meteorologist, B.S. @floridastate, amateur web, Python, & GrADS programmer. Also known as Not Sparta cyclonicwx.com Naples, FL Joined July 2017-
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Some nice personal news: I'm headed to @FloridaTech's meteorology program this fall! I'm very excited to begin graduate school and further my education. Looking forward to the next couple of years there!
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I've added a global satellite composite loop so that you can view the entire world in 1 plot. Good for seeing the MJO convective signature at a glance! Take a look at cyclonicwx.com/floater/global…
Sometimes systems like the disturbance in the East Atlantic get an invest designation if the NHC gives it a chance of development. While this one is not an invest area, I've set up a custom floater to get a closer look at it! See it at cyclonicwx.com/floater/atldis…
Looks like I underestimated that cutoff low! It has gotten 10% chances of development as convection continues to persist despite unfavorable conditions. Record high SSTs of ~24°C in the area (should be ~21°C) are enhancing instability and allowing for more convective activity
Neat little cutoff low at the top center of the map. It won't have conditions favorable enough to support subtropical development, but neat to watch spin regardless. It's also interrupting much of the usual trade wind flow in the MDR, likely leading to some additional warming
Thank you GOES-18, very cool!
After some time of stronger trade winds, it appears a real -NAO is on the way, pushing the ridge north and allowing for a few cutoff lows to weaken its southern extent. Very high SSTs in that area probably helping as well. Will likely freeze the slow descent of MDR SSTAs for now
The problem with the satellite data that helps fill out SST data is a sensitivity to aerosols. You can see this in the past 10 days, where a strong SAL outbreak makes the eastern Atlantic look cooler, then rebounds after it has passed. MDR SSTAs will be biased low in the meantime
Alex Boreham retweeted
I'm a little late to the party with the seasonal model-posting, but I think it's worth talking about the trend towards a more significant Atlantic Nino event this summer. It's pretty subtle, but if this does pan out, it could have some pretty interesting ramifications.
After being very gung ho about a strong WWB (assisted by a TC forming in the WPAC), the GFS has stepped back markedly, towards the solution advertised by its own ensembles and the Euro. Seems like a break in the stronger trades is likely nevertheless with Pacific MJO passage
One of the really underrated things about the #eclipse is seeing its effects on satellite. While the most obvious is the moon's shadow, looking closely, the cumulus fields in the path of totality actually thin out thanks to the lack of solar radiation and drop off in instability!
#Olga managed to overperform expectations thanks to a favorable jet interaction where shear stayed a little lower. However there are a couple signs shear is ramping up. Outflow to the west has become restricted, and the eye has clouded over. Weakening will begin in earnest soon
The Southern Hemisphere has remembered it can develop tropical cyclones! #TS21, though somewhat lopsided, seems to be trying to form an inner core structure. Only has a few days before the jet stream shears it apart, however
Thanks to an EWB earlier this month, a cool pool has strengthened impressively under the equatorial Pacific in the past couple of weeks. This will likely wipe out the rest of El Nino and its formation suggests a solid La Nina event may be more likely this year
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@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech We love to see it Alex. So happy for you and believe you're going to be one of the best.
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Congrats!! I graduated with my BS in meteorology from there in 2022. Amazing program, you will enjoy it!
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Welcome to Brevard county!
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech This is great news! I remember when you left for FSU! It seems like, well, yesterday???? 😂. Easy for me to say! Congratulations, Alex. 🙌🥳🎊👊🍻🎉
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech GOAT making even more moves
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Congratulations 🎉
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Congrats! I might do that after my bachelor's graduation at Embry Riddle next week!
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech You deserve it Alex. Your materials are invaluable. You are one of my favorite forecasters
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Congratulations !!!!!
@cyclonicwx @FloridaTech Congratulations Alex!
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