Hillary Sanders @hillarymsanders
Machine-learner, meat-learner, research scientist, AI Safety thinker. Model trainer, skeptical adorer of statistics. Co-author of: Malware Data Science hillarysanders.com Portland, OR Joined January 2015-
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Just found out about Milton Friedman’s Thermostat analogy. Very good explanation of an important concept. I think @causalinf has a similar analogy with a sailboat staying on course in the face of wind in the Mixtape.
OK, completely unrelated to AI, but why do most baby socks come in variety packs? Like, surely most parents care more about being able to find matching socks easily VS. making sure their baby's socks match their daily outfit? I am bemused. bit.ly/3RlK5NA
I thought GPT usually picked 7 as a random number! Well Dall•E 3 really likes 1, I guess.
Tried to google "Why do I look so young on Zoom"... That didn't work 😂; I am not searching in the same direction as most people. But I guess that means there's not an automatic face filter??
When I've read a fair amount of research / technical blog posts from someone, and then I watch a video of them speaking about research, and they swear like a sailer. A very well-informed technically accurate neural network specialist sailor. I like it. 😁
Formatting email text well is an undervalued skillset, ya'll.
Sure, ya can't rely on it, but sometimes inner misalignment (following standard methods of paperclip production even you could make more by taking over humanity) will help deal with with outer misalignment (oops, we trained it to maximize paperclips, which is obvs terribad)
I like Stuart Russell's perspective shift: Standard: "Machines are intelligent to the extent that their actions can be expected to achieve their objectives." Better: "Machines are beneficial to the extent that their actions can be expected to achieve our objectives"
Knew this was going to happen really soon - and as is so common recently, it's happened even sooner than I predicted. Seems like movie proposals are going to change dramatically, and the number of low-budget small films/shows is going to really explode in the coming years.
Knew this was going to happen really soon - and as is so common recently, it's happened even sooner than I predicted. Seems like movie proposals are going to change dramatically, and the number of low-budget small films/shows is going to really explode in the coming years.
AI advances non-uniformly. But there's lots of AI that could really mess us up far before attaining AGI or superintelligence. Say, a malware worm powered by code GPT-5,6 + strategy & impersonation tools (voice, video). The other stuff more dangerous, but ^^ will come sooner.
Am I wrong? Models that try to maximize a known and clear number, like a score (e.g. reinforcement learning), seem less safe to productionize in terms of AI Safety - VS models that are trained by minimizing some loss function, but aren’t trained to view that number directly.
Joshua Saxe @joshua_saxe
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Sean Gallagher ⚡️.. @thepacketrat
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agentofuser @agentofuser
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www.CloudMalwareAnaly.. @AnalysisGroups
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Google DeepMind @GoogleDeepMind
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Rich Harang @rharang
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Hyrum Anderson @drhyrum
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Mauricio Gomes @OiMauricioGomes
10 Followers 159 Following Working to productionize AI. I love open source, programming, and most things AI. https://t.co/MuNVnqti8D
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Nova DasSarma @dropbella
446 Followers 228 Following Your Friendly Neighborhood Systems Architect · Rotate your passwords · Use two factor authentication · DM me about backups
Alexis Conneau @alex_conneau
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Anthropic @AnthropicAI
262K Followers 26 Following We're an AI safety and research company that builds reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. Talk to our AI assistant Claude at https://t.co/aRbQ97uk4d.
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Owain Evans @OwainEvans_UK
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Krishnamurthy (Dj) Dv.. @DjDvij
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Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹.. @ESYudkowsky
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Real tortured poetry is like What if I saw an urn
Even if there's a 10% chance agentic AI will work in the next few years and be able to automate a chunk of offensive cybersecurity work, the stakes are high enough that it's the responsibility of the AI security community to prepare for this contingency
@pwk I didn't say anything about moral responsibility what are you even talking about
@joeteicher good point actually, though that doesn't make me feel any better...
I've been struck down with a cold because my three year old literally sneezed in my open mouth. Never have I so directly observed causality in disease transmission
The reason most (not all) methods don't add value (over baseline) when scaled is because they're "extra training data in disguise", so their benefit vanishes in the high data regime
Rich Sutton: The Bitter Lesson that compute always wins: incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/Bitte… h/t @jachiam0
@robertwiblin On 5 year time frame, yes. On 5 million year time frame, no. Doom predictions are nearly meaningless when disconnected from time horizons.
I've recommended this to lots of people who are in security and want to dive deeper into the details of ML, and I always hear the same basic comment: it's super readable and eases you into the math with approachable code that explains *why* you need the math. Fantastic book.
I'm now officially a published book author @ManningBooks! Inside Deep Learning mng.bz/8M2g ! Filling the need for a combination of practical "get something running" and understanding why things work and how the math relates to the code. @KirkDBorne for the forward!
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso @jessi_cata Difference between "is it _techncially_ >50%" and "is it >50% to any practically useful degree?" Yes to the former, no to the latter.
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso @jessi_cata Normal is supported on the entire real line; as long as there is finite money in both envelopes you have a nonzero (but, yes, functionally insignificant) chance of picking a value between the two envelope values. If you want to assume positive amounts of money use e.g. a gamma.
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso Like if there's $500 and $501 dollars (or w/e) and you're picking your threshold from a standard normal, your advantage over a 50/50 game is utterly miniscule and functionally insignificant, but still technically better than 50% chance if you sample your threshold anew each game.
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso If the two envelopes have the same amount of money, then your chance of getting the max is 1. In any other case, draw a number from a normal distribution. Your edge over 50% is the integral of that density from the lower to higher envelope value. Arbitrarily small but strictly >0
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso I think you can eke out a miniscule edge by just picking a number and then swapping if you're beneath it. Most of the time both envelopes will be on the same side, and you get 50/50 odds. Once in a long while your number will be between the values, and then your odds are 100%.
@hillarymsanders @algekalipso Set P(x) proportional to 1/(x+1)^2, then it's >50% regardless of the distribution over amounts
@hillarymsanders @mrocklin I would have settled for something like "This is usually fatal"/"This is usually treatable". I don't think the issue was that he didn't know, I think he just didn't want to make any promises in case things went south.
@liron @Noahpinion Noah makes a good point. My spin: Price is set by supply & demand, not direct cost. Suppose the cost of AI plummets to $0/hr but GPU capacity is limited to one trillion hours of AI work per year until more are made. In this year, AI docs may not make sense even if cost is $0.
@mrocklin When my wife was pregnant with my son, the doctor discovered a condition that might be fatal. I asked what the odds were, even ballpark. Was this 99% fatal, 50%, 1%? He wouldn't even begin to give me an idea of the range of outcomes. It was extremely Frustrating! (baby was fine)
Communicating nuance is really important to establish trust.
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