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The $VIX: Signaling a Correction Coming The VIX has been rising even as equities pushed higher, usually a caution sign. It may be hinting at a 2–3% pullback. But at 18.2 and 19.5, the $VIX futures (the underlying assets for $VXX and $UVXY) are already elevated. It’s not the…
Might just be a blip, but it's usually not a good thing when the ratio of $VIX:$VIX3M (green) goes above ratio of $VIX3M to $VIX6M (red). It was a particularly useful tell July 2024.
The Christmas dip is a well known feature of VIX futures' term structure. Seth's data supports a fall seasonality that could be boosting the VIX Aug futures (which are based on Sept SPX options). In addition, $SPX 21 day RSI is at 70.5, which signals less upside opportunity,…
The Christmas dip is a well known feature of VIX futures' term structure. Seth's data supports a fall seasonality that could be boosting the VIX Aug futures (which are based on Sept SPX options). In addition, $SPX 21 day RSI is at 70.5, which signals less upside opportunity,… https://t.co/K1rvU4Rc6N
$VVIX often leads $VIX, and $VIX often leads the $SPX, especially on the way down. Caution is warranted.
A simple risk on/off indicator is the ratio of the Cboe's $VIX & $VIX3M indicators for 30 and 93 day horizons. When it goes above 0.95 it's definitely time to think about taking some risk off--if you are a mature enough investor. Historically, it has signaled at least a day…
Okay I have taken this 20 page article on option arbitrage and asked Grok to summarize the main points of the arbitrage (tons of math problems that make me start drooling and eyes go cross eyed) I am asked about this daily in discord and these flows get posted a ton because 1.…
The $VIX is selling off even as the market declines—that’s a fact. It’s also a fact that traders usually unwind hedges before they start buying. I focus on facts, not opinions. And frankly, your opinions are worthless. People keep telling me what Trump will do next, what Powell…
Based on the comments and the article itself it seems like a lot of folks don’t have an understanding as to how tail options actually work. I’m seeing a lot of people saying things like “what an idiot, $VIX will never get there” 🤦🏽♂️. $VIX is effectively variance which is vol².…
Based on the comments and the article itself it seems like a lot of folks don’t have an understanding as to how tail options actually work. I’m seeing a lot of people saying things like “what an idiot, $VIX will never get there” 🤦🏽♂️. $VIX is effectively variance which is vol².… https://t.co/73lZQbk4gR
Here's how to practically use and interpret each of these 30-day volatility indexes, including their IF/THEN implications, and how to analyze them together: Scenario (CURRENTLY based on the website) VolDex flat/slightly down, PutDex sharply ↓, CallDex slightly ↑, RiskDex ↓,…
“Let’s buy $VIX or $VXX puts!” Hold on—it’s more complicated than it seems. The most important factor in options pricing is implied volatility. When volatility subsides, so does the options premium. However, the $VIX itself represents implied volatility, so as the $VIX declines,…
The VIX reached 26+ today The Implied Volatility for all the stocks is higher than its historical IV It’s a good day to sell Covered Calls even if the stock might be down or flat Vega-Delta relationship is skewed towards Vega today due to the IV Premiums are up $NVDA $TSLA
High IV -> Sell options Low IV -> Buy options High IV & oversold -> Sell CSP High IV & overbought -> Sell CC Low IV & oversold -> buy long-dated calls
Here are some ideas on how to leverage GEX for a Vertical Spread setup, as discussed in this morning's webinar. These slides were shared during the session to provide practical insights. Take a look 👀🔖
Let’s break down the logic of this trade through the P&L dynamics: $VIX 13 (too low): Buy Call $VIX 15 (fair): Sell Put $VIX 20 (too high): Sell 2 Calls Any $VIX spike will primarily affect the front month(January), effectively de-risking the position from the initial spike.
Let’s break down the logic of this trade through the P&L dynamics: $VIX 13 (too low): Buy Call $VIX 15 (fair): Sell Put $VIX 20 (too high): Sell 2 Calls Any $VIX spike will primarily affect the front month(January), effectively de-risking the position from the initial spike. https://t.co/ZkfXMs5ZFy
I was looking over some chats in @VolSignals discord and saw something about the $vvix: $vix ratio I remember playing with it in like 2020, so palyed with it a little. Iwas also chatting about it in my AM 'SPX Game Plan" voice call (8 AM) on @MenthorQpro recently (lots of stuff…
The reason $SPX didn't continue the rally today is that $VIX : $VXV was crushed too fast. After the August low it dropped from 1.14 to 0.83 in 9 days. This time it happened in only 4 days, so the rally will become bumpy from here. It won't be easy making a new all time high.
$VIX: $VXV pretty much confirms that the stock market correction ended. It dropped from 1.14 on Wednesday to 0.91 today. Based on its behavior this year the market rally is likely to continue until the ratio drops to 0.83-0.85. At that point the market will become bumpy again.
We’re now on day three of debates about quoting $VIX in percentage terms. While trying to be respectful to everyone, I think this might be a helpful way to explain why using percentage quotes can be misleading. Let’s skip the nerdy stuff. If the $VIX is at 16, this ROUGHLY means…
The McClellan A-D Oscillator for the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index is now officially "pretty darned oversold".

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