樱木花道 @naruto1995615
Joined May 2015-
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@dotkrueger With all due respect to Fred, I've outlined literally all of those differences repeatedly when making the comparison. The main similarity is fiscal dominance (40s), not lending dominance (70s). It's best to fully know someone's thesis before explaining how you disagree.
Janet saying more debt will be needed in 3Q than was expected and a higher TGA is coming. This is not really a "pump" announcement but we don't know specifically until Wednesday morning.
Way too much ink has already been spilled about the QRA this week. The fact that such a focus has been played on it suggests that the Overton Window on US government debt growth sustainability is becoming more top of mind for investors and is increasingly becoming a concern.…
My vote for "Most important chart nobody seems to be focused on (yet)" 👇 Myriad implications for oil, inflation expectations, rates, geopolitics, FX, etc.
🚨 NEW 🚨 We estimate all recent student debt cancellation policies will cost a combined $870 billion to $1.4 trillion. That’s more than all federal spending on higher education over the nation’s entire history. And it's more than all projected education appropriations over the…
This is the chart we published. Looks very different? The source is sadly not you! Strangely you slag-off our research one moment, then claim ownership the next...
This is the chart we published. Looks very different? The source is sadly not you! Strangely you slag-off our research one moment, then claim ownership the next... https://t.co/JEoWwQihcK
POW! 25 Juicy pages! My longest free post yet! The Bank of Japan is standing idly by while their currency depreciates past the limit set in September 2022. Is all hope lost for the Japanese Yen? 👇🔥 substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
Ok nerds, let’s talk triangle weighting. A lot of people (well, two…) have asked my why March core PCE inflation came in as expected at 0.3%, when that was the expectation *before* the GDP report came out with the higher-than-expected core rate for Q1. After all…
Is American manufacturing turning inward? 👉And when did start? (correct🔗linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…) cc: @adam_tooze @AdamPosen @OECDtrade @TradeDiversion @TradeEconomista @snlester @SimonEvenett @alanbeattie @sdonnan @SoumayaKeynes @BJavorcik @jasonfurman @C_Lombardelli…
The US continuing to send Ukraine $60 billion in support year after year is unrealistic no matter who wins the presidency, says @ianbremmer. What you really want to do at this point: position Ukraine as well as possible for eventual negotiations. #QuickTake
Gold vs. geopolitical events: via @MacrobondF
This chart from Goldman Sachs is eye-opening: Asset-heavy stocks have underperformed a great deal. Given the accelerating pace of innovation so apparent all around us, it’s tough to suggest that investors should shun capital-light industries that continue to compound such…
The best overall interview I've done recently was this one from a few weeks ago. Fiscal dominance, capital controls, and open money: youtube.com/watch?v=DnpczZ…
While everyone squints at the inflation numbers in today's report, the more important takeaway is the sustainability of the income-led expansion. HH incomes growing at ~6%, spending is growing at the same rate & despite low savings rates, borrowing is subdued and wealth is up.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.
I track all PMIs as you can imagine ... I really like those focused on early-cycle industries like the NAHB, or this one, the Architecture Billings Index. These often weaken ahead of the others and rebound in the same manner.
I found this from the IMF pretty shocking: Europe and Canada have basically offset the *entire* post-2008 reduction in overall labor force participation from aging by increasing female labor force participation. Clearly something for us to learn from.
I found this from the IMF pretty shocking: Europe and Canada have basically offset the *entire* post-2008 reduction in overall labor force participation from aging by increasing female labor force participation. Clearly something for us to learn from. https://t.co/kxiDr57KUT
Waters of the Atlantic Basin Main Development Region (MDR) are as warm as we'd usually find in mid-July. Gonna be a lit hurricane season. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @KathyJones and I chat markets, and I convo with the great Sebastien Page from @TRowePrice link.chtbl.com/on-investing-e…
A weedy, potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter? So the PCE inflation uses moving weights, so if the…
fariz_Mohammed @fariz_xauusd
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bill fleckstein @flleckcap
39 Followers 302 Following https://t.co/kXN2wSaPyR my daily column (since 1996) plus Q&A. Author, “Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve “.
Steve Hou (“CONSUME.. @stevehouf1
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Vincent Deluard @VincenntDeluard
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cpibhzjrb15b2 @rb121781qqg
4 Followers 211 Following Good news. Earn 500-5,000usdc by analyzing BTC contracts professionally Telegram https://t.co/V9S970Q0UF
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Parker Ross @stakhodller
5K Followers 1K Following Global Chief Economist @ Arch Capital Group | ex JPM AIG HUD | Husband to Jamie & Dad to Lando & Grey | No investment advice & views are my own
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Akshat @Akshat__sah
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socorro mckenney 💟 @socorrotarin6
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Margaret Sendall @MargaretSendall
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REX @REXXLOLL
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Prettymftrae @Bitchun_blockme
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Mauricio López @Ing_MaoLopez
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Ira Jersey, US Fixed .. @IraFJersey
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George Robertson @BickerinBrattle
11K Followers 2K Following Expert in fixed income, equity, and derivatives of both. Started at "Liars Poker" Salomon, last job as head of long duration (US Treasurys) for Morgan Stanley.
Blockworks @Blockworks_
400K Followers 4K Following Crypto news, information, and analytics. Join us at @permissionless. Built for investors: @blockworksres
Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance
14K Followers 64 Following Macro Investing podcast. Taking viewers into the beating heart of the Global Financial Machine. hosted by @JackFarley96 on @Blockworks_
Jack Farley @JackFarley96
61K Followers 4K Following Host of @ForwardGuidance podcast: https://t.co/YtVwCD0YO9 Finance journalist & macro research @Blockworks_
Peruvian Bull @peruvian_bull
65K Followers 633 Following analyst @ fintech. finance & macro economics. yen disrespectooor. the Dollar Endgame Book: https://t.co/Orz0fOyN0Z $GME #BTC
David Lin @davidlin_TV
43K Followers 1K Following Host, The David Lin Report. Avid learner of all things finance and economics. Bubble tea addict
LSE Department of Eco.. @LSEEcHist
6K Followers 656 Following Exploring the past to shape the future 🌍📜📈 Follow for research & talks by world-class scholars. Blog: https://t.co/PvcvS2QMpy
EPFR | Fund Flows & A.. @EPFR
3K Followers 194 Following EPFR offers financial institutions around the world an unparalleled understanding of how money is moving and why, through fund flows and asset allocation data.
Richard Hanania @RichardHanania
98K Followers 221 Following President, @CSPICenterOrg. Former @UTAustin, @ColumbiaSIPA. Post pictures from books. Subscribe at https://t.co/32YL6Mtg2D
John Comiskey @Johncomiskey77
12K Followers 455 Following Engineer (mortgage tech), attorney (non-practicing). Opinions totally my own, not advice of any type.
Pedro da Costa @pdacosta
135K Followers 30K Following Fed reporter. Head of Policy for the Americas at @MNIMarketNews. Host of FedSpeak podcast. Opinions my own.
The Economist @TheEconomist
27.3M Followers 159 Following News and analysis with a global perspective. We’re here to help you understand the world around you. Subscribe here: https://t.co/RpUQAAnhog
Bank of England @bankofengland
412K Followers 1K Following As the UK's central bank we work to ensure low inflation, trust in banknotes and a stable financial system. Follow our @BoE_PressOffice and @boemuseum accounts
Yuval Noah Harari @harari_yuval
632K Followers 53 Following Historian and bestselling author of 'Sapiens', 'Homo Deus', '21 Lessons for the 21st Century', 'Sapiens: A Graphic History', 'Unstoppable Us', and 'NEXUS'.
ian bremmer @ianbremmer
778K Followers 2K Following political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup, @gzeromedia. if you lived here, you'd be home now.
DEFCONWarningSystem @DEFCONWSALERTS
303K Followers 95 Following DWS is a private intelligence organization that has been analyzing the threat of nuclear war since 1984 and offers an alert code to the public.
Craig Shapiro @ces921
15K Followers 1K Following Macro Advisor: Bottoms up industry/company fundamental analysis w/ top down macro framework. https://t.co/4ET7W0Xf1M
James Lavish @jameslavish
117K Followers 1K Following reformed hedge-fund manager | ex-@yale hockey | drafted by bruins, landed on wall street | author of the💡Informationist newsletter simplifying finance for all
Eric Yeung 👍🚀�.. @KingKong9888
22K Followers 2K Following Geopolitical and economic effects on Precious Metals and commodities. Not financial advice. Opinions are my own.
qinbafrank @qinbafrank
52K Followers 970 Following Investor in TMT、Crypto&web3 ,#bitcoin #eth #AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势，致力于成为野生的宏观政经观察者、资深的产业研究者、一流的基本面趋势投资者。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃
Joseph Brown @heresyfinancial
24K Followers 246 Following I teach how money actually works. The more you learn, the more you earn. Join me at https://t.co/F36u2aE3sz
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31K Followers 81 Following Investments, markets, personal finance writer. Charts, charts, and a bit of weather. Open to freelance work and/or the right full-time job.
Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity
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bill fleckenstein @fleckcap
45K Followers 96 Following https://t.co/2zVu2xZOK2 my daily column (since 1996) plus Q&A. Author, "Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve ".
Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent
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Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
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ahhhhfs @abskoop
661K Followers 1K Following ❤️虚假推友🫶🫰😘💕 收集分享各种互联网垃圾｜投稿侵权请私信｜谢谢不接推｜TG频道订阅更新:https://t.co/OmSvNms9yl ｜小号:@ahhhhfs l🔔重复刷无相关评论会被拉黑｜链接打不开用Chrome浏览器，不要用国产浏览器
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Ambassador Katherine .. @AmbassadorTai
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Stefanie Stantcheva @S_Stantcheva
39K Followers 2K Following Professor of Economics @Harvard. Inequality, taxation, innovation & how people understand economic policies. Theory+data. https://t.co/naCOmtDvtMPOW! 25 Juicy pages! My longest free post yet! The Bank of Japan is standing idly by while their currency depreciates past the limit set in September 2022. Is all hope lost for the Japanese Yen? 👇🔥 substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
Looks to me that history does repeat often … 👀. It’s always the “E” in #hopE that widens spreads. Hasn’t happened in claims or NFP thus far. Though, some softer E is a much needed relief from higher rates. The bar may be higher today to widen spreads initially. This looks like…
This chart speaks volumes about the level of complacency prevailing in markets today. Either the global economy is returning to a disinflationary state with a significantly lower cost of capital, or credit risk is severely mispriced. I believe it is the latter. As shown…
Bonds are a good hedge for stock investors only if core inflation is predictably below 3%. Otherwise they suck at diversifying portfolios.
This proximate crisis between Israel and Iran is now in the rearview mirror, says @ianbremmer. But going forward, what's the likelihood that we can stabilize this war, which is now well beyond just a matter of Israel versus Hamas? #QuickTake
The most impactful macro policy divergence between the two candidates is protectionism vs. openness. Tariffs are clearly inflationary. As is restricting immigration. x.com/BobEUnlimited/…
The two candidates different approaches on immigration is the most important policy divergence from a macro perspective. Substantial increases in immigration in the last 2 years have been an important part of loosening lower income labor markets and with it wages and spending.
Treasury buybacks 101. Since the minutes of the last Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee Meeting in early August mentioned a study being put together to have staff examine the costs and benefits of the US treasury engaging in a bond buyback program. This thread will address
As I’ve done many times in the past, i strongly recommend Florian’s post here. I deeply respect the views and analyses from Florian, writes some of the clearest and well thought through macro analyses. Every single post has given me new insights and things to think about!
The Q2 liquidity vortex is now in full swing, as I predicted in this extensive post some time ago It seems probable that all assets are affected, with cash likely the best performer over the coming weeks. Asset rallies should likely now be sold (1/3) nexteconomy.co/p/on-liquidity…
The Q2 liquidity vortex is now in full swing, as I predicted in this extensive post some time ago It seems probable that all assets are affected, with cash likely the best performer over the coming weeks. Asset rallies should likely now be sold (1/3) nexteconomy.co/p/on-liquidity…
Services spending is softening … 3m average of monthly change in restaurant/bar retail sales has come down swiftly from last year’s pace
While Iran's unprecedented strikes on Israel were "clearly a very dangerous thing to do," things "could have been a hell of a lot worse," says @ianbremmer. Watch his latest #QuickTake to understand the implications of what happened and what to expect next.
Is the next move a hike? Our proprietary global inflation impulse index has surged back, registering an aggregate Z-score of almost 5. This indicates a substantial positive inflation impulse from each of our five key subcomponents, often resulting in US inflation levels…
The Second Wave of Inflation Has Arrived gainspainscapital.com/2024/04/11/the…
Another contributing factor to a second wave of #inflation… $100 #Oil bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Demand-driven inflation fell dramatically over 2023. Inflation went from being mainly demand driven in early 2023 to mainly supply driven in early 2024. frbsf.org/research-and-i…
What should you know about the rental housing market in the United States? Recent research from @hamiltonproj looks at trends in rent inflation, rental vacancies, and more: brookings.edu/articles/ten-e…
The ISM production index rose to 54.6, the highest level since June 2022 while the employment sub-index stood at just 47.4. Taken at face value, this implies a pretty solid pick-up in manufacturing sector productivity growth in the coming quarters.
This paper presents the first systematic empirical analysis of the drivers of global inflation over the period of 1970-2022. worldbank.org/en/research/br…
@Greener_66763 @wormholecrypto You can now check if you are eligible for $W 1⃣ Go to: airdrop-wormhole.claims 2⃣ Connect your wallet to check your eligibility 3⃣ Approve verification prompts to whitelist your wallet Important: Please whitelist your wallet ASAP - unclaimed whitelist spots will be…
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